Dated:
Warsaw,
July 24, 1915.

Leaving Lublin early in the morning we motored to that certain place where the army next in line to the one I have last discussed is stationed. Since I have been away there have been many changes and much shifting about of corps, and I find that nearly half of this army is now east of the Vistula, and its left joins the right of the one we have just left, the two together forming the line of defence on Lublin. As I have been in the army on the Vistula two or three times before, I find many friends there, and learn from them of the successful movement of a few days before when an early Austrian advance taken in the flank resulted in a loss to the enemy, of prisoners alone, of 297 officers and a number reported to be 23,000 men, practically all of whom are said to be Austrians. Here as elsewhere great confidence is expressed as to the position in the south. We are even told that the bulk of the Germans are now being shifted to another point, and that the next blow will fall directly on or north of Warsaw.

On returning to Warsaw I found that during our absence there had been a grave panic caused by the advances in the south, and that several hundred thousand of the population had already left, while practically all the better class had departed a week ago. The hotels were almost deserted, and the streets emptier than I have ever seen them. But friends who are unusually well informed told me that the danger was past, and the general impression was that the worst was over on this front. For two whole days we had a period practically without rumours or alarms, and then began what now looks to be one of the darkest periods that any of us have yet seen here, not even excepting the panicky days of October last when the Germans were all but in the city itself. First came rumours of heavy fighting to the north, around Przasnys, Lomza, Ciechanow, and reports of Russian reverses and retirements on a new line of defence, and forthwith Warsaw was again thrown into a state of excessive nerves. One becomes so accustomed to these constant alarms that they have come to make little impression on one. The next day a friend coming in from the armies engaged announced with the greatest confidence that the situation was better, and that the new Russian line was in every way better than the old one and that everything was going well. Fighting which is reported to be serious is going on to the south of us, on the Lublin-Cholm line, but is not causing serious anxiety here. On the whole nearly all the usually well-informed persons here felt moderately easy about the situation.

Suddenly there came a bolt out of the blue. With no warning it was announced that the evacuation of Warsaw had been ordered and that the civil authorities would leave on Sunday, July 18. This announcement was not made until late on Saturday, and immediately began the tumult of reports of disaster which we who have sat here through thick and thin know so well. Personally I should have felt no anxiety, for there seemed no immediate danger on any of the near-by fronts, nor serious reverses as far as was known here on the more distant fronts; but the order of evacuation was followed up at once by instructions to the Consul of Great Britain to be prepared to leave on Monday, while I believe that the Belgian and French Consuls received similar notices and are all departing on that day (to-morrow, July 19). The American Consul, Hernando Desote, who already has the German and Austrian interests in charge, took over the British interests at twelve o’clock to-day, and will probably do the same for the interests of the other Allies represented here in Warsaw.

In the meantime we hear that the Russians are falling back on the Blonie line, and that Zuradov has already been evacuated, which may or may not be true. It now seems quite obvious that something has taken place of which we know nothing, and I have not seen or talked with an officer who thinks that what is taking place is due to the local military situation as far as it is known. The general opinion is that if the Russians retire it is due purely to the fact that they have not the munitions to maintain a sustained attack of the Germans who seem to be coming over to this front in increasingly large numbers. For the observer here it is impossible to know what the Russians have in their caissons. One who gets about a good deal can make a guess at the positions, strength and morale of an army, but the matter of munitions or outside policy is something which cannot be solved by the man at the front. There is undoubtedly a feeling of great discouragement here at present, and many believe that the Russians have been bearing the burden now ever since January, while the Allies for one cause or another have not been able to start enough of an attack in the west to prevent the Germans from sending more and ever more troops over here.

Russia certainly has neither the industrial system nor the industrial temperament to supply herself with what she needs to the same extent as both France and England. She has been fighting now for months, with ammunition when she had it, and practically without it when it failed her. Month after month she has kept up the unequal struggle, and there are many here who think the greater powers that be are going to withdraw to a shorter line, and await refilling of their caissons until the time comes when the Allies can co-operate in the attack on the common enemy. These matters are purely speculation, however, for here we know nothing except that the civil evacuation is going on apace, and that there are many signs which indicate that it may be followed by the military within a week or ten days.

The Poles are utterly discouraged, the Russians disgusted and, all things considered, Warsaw at the present writing is a very poor place for an optimist. We hear to-day that the fire brigade has come back from Zuradov, where buildings which might be of use to the enemy are said to have been blown up. Poles have been notified that the Russian Government would give them free transportation from here, and 14 roubles. Factories which have copper in their equipment have been dismantled, and many are already in process of being loaded on to cars for shipment to Russia proper. I am told that the State Bank left yesterday for Moscow, and that they are collecting all the brass and copper utensils from the building next door to the hotel. My chauffeur has just come in and lugubriously announced that benzine has risen to 15 roubles a pood (I do not know how that figures out in English equivalent except that it is prohibitory), when we usually pay three. In addition the soldiers are collecting all private stocks, and there are few of the privately owned cars in the town that have enough in their tanks to turn a wheel with. In the meantime another man informs me that they are tearing down copper telephone and telegraph wires to points outside of the city, and that our troops are already falling back on Warsaw. All of this is very annoying to one who has just finished writing an optimistic story about the situation in the South.

Something like this, then, is the situation in Warsaw on Sunday night, July 18. It has never been worse so far as I can judge from my point of view, but I am of the opinion that things are not as bad as they look, and that successes in the South may yet relieve the tension.

THE LOSS OF WARSAW