Law’s designs against England’s political and industrial position.—Earl of Stair’s correspondence with Mr. Secretary Craggs.—Stair accused by Law of threatening the safety of the Bank.—Stair’s recall intimated.—Lord Stanhope sent to conciliate Law.—Threatened rupture between England and France over question of evacuation of Gibraltar.—Stair endeavours to justify his hostile attitude towards Law.—His apprehensions as to Law’s purpose in acquiring South Sea stock.—The humiliating nature of Stair’s dismissal.
The year 1720 was a momentous one in the history of the Mississippi Scheme. Its commencement was full of promise from many points of view. It witnessed the realisation of Law’s ambition to gather into his hands the reins of government in practically every department of the administration. It witnessed also the zenith of prosperity for all those gigantic schemes and undertakings which were to make France the great centre of trade and finance for the world. But the promise for the future which these circumstances seemed to contain was only of few months’ duration. Yet these few months saw Law the most striking and commanding figure of his time throughout Europe. We have already seen the position to which he had attained in the internal affairs of France itself; how the government of that country was practically under his control; and how by sheer energy and force of character he had extended his influence over every class of society. His fame however reached far beyond the confines of France. He was regarded as an international force by other nations. Not only was his system copied by other countries, but he was bent on following a line of foreign policy for France which threatened the political and industrial prospects of these countries, and caused them great alarm, temporary no doubt, probably foolish, but real while it lasted.
Law’s designs were chiefly directed against the power of England. The English government recognised this, and considered Law a person to be conciliated. Their attitude towards him was peculiarly weak, and led to the recall of the minister at the French court, the Earl of Stair. That minister on his arrival in Paris in 1715 had called upon Law, not only as a friend, but because he adjudged him even then as a man of great importance. Their friendship however was of short duration. It rapidly degenerated into merely formal intercourse, and then into active hostility. The latter stage was reached in 1719, when we find Lord Stair intriguing against Law in his attempt to displace Dubois, foreign minister of France, by Torcy, who would have been a more pliable instrument for the carrying out of his designs. Lord Stair’s letters to Mr. Secretary Craggs at this time are full of interest, and show the nature of the hostility between himself and Law, and the progress of their quarrel. On August 30th, 1719, he writes—“In a long conversation I had with the AbbÉ (Dubois) to-night, he seems apprehensive that Torcy gains ground, and that there may be a close connection betwixt Law and Torcy, with views to turn the AbbÉ out. I am afraid this apprehension of the AbbÉ is not without ground; but, however that may be, I am persuaded we shall quickly see this court take airs which will not be easy to bear; and I am not a little apprehensive that we shall very quickly see them come into measures that we shall have no reason to like. If this should be true, we must not, in my poor opinion, seem to take any notice of it; but at the same time, it will behove us to exert ourselves to find out ways, without loss of time, to get rid of the pressure of the public debts.”
A few days later Lord Stair had apparently concluded that he was powerless to stem the advance of Law’s influence, and writes accordingly—“Supposing I had talents, and that I were fitter to serve you at this court than another; you will be obliged to change your minister. You may depend on it, this court, with their fortune, will change their measures (i.e., their foreign policy); and they will desire to have a man here that they may be either able to gain or impose upon. You must henceforth look upon Law as the first minister, whose daily discourse is, that he will raise France to a greater height than ever she was, upon the ruin of England and Holland. You may easily imagine I shall not be a minister for his purpose. He is very much displeased with me already, because I did not flatter his vanity by putting in Mississippi. I did not think it became the King’s Ambassador to give countenance to such a thing, or an example to others to withdraw their effects from England, to put them into the stocks here; which would have been readily followed by many. I have been in the wrong to myself, to the value of thirty or forty thousand pounds, which I might very easily have gained if I had put myself, as others did, into Mr. Law’s hands; but I thought it was my duty, considering my position, not to do so.
“The AbbÉ told me, that if some people prevailed, measures would be changed; that Torcy of late took the ascendant very much; and that the Regent discovered a great partiality towards him; and that, if it continued a little longer, he, the AbbÉ, would lay down. I am sure Law is in this thing, for he will be for removing everything that does not absolutely depend on him, and that can, in any manner, stand in his way to hinder him to be first minister. Law’s heart has been set upon that from the beginning; and we stand too directly in the way of his ambitious views, for France to imagine that a good understanding can subsist long between the nations, if he comes to govern absolutely.”
On 9th September, Lord Stair returns to the question of the displacement of Dubois, and seeks to impress the government with what he conceives to be the gravity of the situation. “I told you, in my former letter, what the AbbÉ Dubois said to me upon the subject of Torcy’s taking the ascendant over him in the Regent’s favour, and of the close connection he, the AbbÉ, apprehended was between Torcy and Law. He has since confirmed the same thing to me in several conversations; and seemed to be in very great concern, and to have thoughts of laying down, which I advised him not to do. The AbbÉ likewise told me that there were many things which were hid from him; and that he apprehended there was some change of measures.
“I come now to take notice of another thing to you, which in my opinion is very much to be minded; and that is the spirit, behaviour and discourse of the man whom, from henceforth, you must look upon as the first minister, and that is Mr. Law. He, in all his discourse, pretends that he will set France higher than ever she was before, and put her in a condition to give the law to all Europe; that he can ruin the trade and credit of England and Holland whenever he pleases; that he can break our Bank whenever he has a mind, and our East India Company. He said publicly the other day at his own table, when Lord Londonderry was present, that there was but one great kingdom in Europe, and one great town; and that was France and Paris. He told Pitt that he would bring down our East India stock, and entered into articles with him to sell him at twelve months hence a hundred thousand pounds of stock at eleven per cent. under the present current price.
“You may imagine what we have to apprehend from a man of this temper, who makes no scruple to declare such views, and who will have all the power and all the credit at his court.”
Later in the same month he says, “I hope our good friends in the North will make our affairs in Parliament easy. We must in that case exert ourselves to do something decisive towards the payment of the public debts, if we do not intend to submit ourselves to the condition in which Mr. Law pretends to put all Europe. He says, il rendra la France si grande que toutes les nations de l’Europe, enverront des Ambassadeurs À Paris, et le roy n’enverra que des couriers.”
From opposition on the ground of policy alone to personal differences was an easy stage. Law, conscious of his own power, had been hitherto somewhat indifferent to the efforts of Lord Stair to weaken his direction of the foreign policy of France. A rumour, however, which gained circulation towards the end of the year determined him to rid the French court of a man who he thought was moved not less by personal enmity than by the interests of the country he represented. Two circumstances had happened of an alarming nature which threatened the safety of the Bank and the value of Mississippi stock. A run had been made upon the Bank, and an attack upon the market had been organised with a view to depreciating the price of shares. These disturbing events had been attributed to Lord Stair, and Law at once informed the Regent to whom the matter was of great concern. Lord Stair was innocent of the charge, and naturally sought an interview with the Regent in order to disabuse his mind. The result was satisfactory so far as the assurances of the Regent went, but displayed the latter’s duplicity since he was throughout unquestionably on the side of Law. Stair’s letter descriptive of the interview was dated 11th December. “Several days ago I was informed on very good authority, that Mr. Law told the Duke of Orleans that it was I who had latterly been the cause of the attack on the Bank. I thereupon resolved to clear myself with him, and I turned the conversation in such a way that he mentioned he had been told that I had been the cause of the attack. I said to him, ‘My Lord, I understand that Mr. Law has had a talk with you, and I am very pleased to have the opportunity of proving to you that he is absolutely false in all his statements. It is true that the subjects of the King, my master, have considerable wealth in this country, which it would have been very easy for me to have used to the prejudice of the Bank. But if it is true that neither I nor any other subject of the King had taken billets in order to have them changed at the Bank; if we have not placed shares on the market in order to depreciate them; if it is true that I have had no communication with those who have run on the Bank, you ought to be convinced that Mr. Law’s talk is not only false but is the most atrocious calumny and the most unworthy; a calumny which does not tend only to deceive you on my account, a trustworthy servant at all times, through gratitude and through affection; but which tends to embroil you with my master, the King, who is your best friend and ally; for I know that Mr. Law stated at the same time that what I did in this respect I did by order of my court.
“Now, if Mr. Law cannot prove to you that one of these three points is true, since I boldly submit to you that all three are false, he ought to be considered by you as a calumniator who desires to deceive in things of great importance. But it is not merely of recent date that I know the good intentions of Mr. Law for his country, and the designs he has to set the King at variance with you. It is only eight days since Mr. Law publicly threatened, in presence of several subjects of the King, my master, to write a book for the purpose of convincing the world that Great Britain could not possibly pay her debts. Such are the ordinary and public discourses of Mr. Law. You can judge what effect that can produce when a man who pretends to be your first minister delivers such discourses. I have known it for a long time, but I have refrained from saying anything to you because I was persuaded that Great Britain would not think the same; and because I regarded these discourses as the effects of the foolish vanity and inebriation of Mr. Law whose head I have noticed for some time, has been turned.’ I then told the Duke of Orleans many discourses of a similar nature. The Duke listened with surprise. At last he said to me, ‘My Lord, they are truly the discourses of a fool.’ I replied, ‘I say nothing to you that I would not say in Mr. Law’s presence, and that I could not prove; you can now judge if it would have been astonishing if I had really acted in the way Mr. Law led you to believe I had done, but I am guided by the respect I have always had for your interests.’
“The Duke of Orleans told me finally that he was quite satisfied with what I had just told him; that he had always looked on me as his friend, and that he had difficulty in believing that I wished to prejudice his operations. That is substantially all that passed between the Duke and myself on the subject of Mr. Law. You can make the necessary reflections. There is no need of comment.”
Stair’s following letter communicates an apparent determination of the Regent to exclude Law from any influence on the relations of France with England, but also indicates his hesitation to place too much reliance upon the Regent’s assurances. “The Regent,” he writes, “so strongly perceived the dangers into which Law would precipitate him, that some days ago he repeatedly spoke very strongly to me of the vanity, presumption, and insolence of this man. He said he knew Law to be a man whose head had been turned by excessive vanity and ambition; that nothing could satisfy him except to be absolute master; that he had so great conceit of his own abilities and so great contempt for the talents of other men that he was impracticable with every one; that he had tried to make him work with the cleverest men in France, and that he could not agree with them for two consecutive days, always being impatient at the slightest obstacle or contradiction. He told me that he had rated Law soundly for his insolent discourses which alarmed everyone in such a way that he had reason to believe that Law would contain himself; but that he saw clearly no bridle could hold him. ‘But,’ said the Regent, ‘believe me, I shall arrange matters so that there will be no risk of Law embroiling me with the King nor separating me from my allies. He is necessary to me in my financial affairs, but he will not be listened to in political matters, and I shall be on my guard against his mischievous designs.’ I should like to believe that the Regent said what he thinks, and that he really thought it at the moment he spoke to me; but, with all that, a great treasurer, such as Law, is first minister wherever he chances to be in office; and if Law’s system is established we are equally lost sooner or later. Further, believe me, we ought to be aware of this nation; we can never, with safety, count on their friendship, inasmuch as you could be a dangerous enemy to them, and can bring home to them the great injury we could cause them if they disagreed with us. On this account their friendship will be assured; but we shall miscalculate every time we depend on them in time of need. You will have received a messenger from the AbbÉ Dubois, who would inform you that I told him last Thursday that I would ask to be recalled. It is not from pique; but I see by the course things are taking that I shall no longer be able to render any service to the King at this court.”
In the middle of January, 1720, Lord Stanhope intimated the recall of Lord Stair to the French minister, and a few days afterwards it was known throughout Paris. The manner of his recall was by no means courteous, but Lord Stair received the news with apparently unruffled temper, and expressed no regret in dimitting office since he recognised the difficulty and the delicacy of the position in which he had placed himself. Notwithstanding, however, the manner of his discharge—a discharge which was virtually a disgrace—he declared that it would not alter his unchangeable devotion to the service of his King and country. So serious a view did the English government take of the probable consequences of Stair’s efforts to circumvent Law that they deemed it necessary to send Lord Stanhope himself to Paris in order to conciliate Law and to disclaim any animosity on the part of England towards him. Such a step showed at once a callous indifference to the feelings of Lord Stair, and greatly gratified Law, who seemingly occupied the proud position of being able to bring England to the humiliating necessity of asking his pardon for the hostility to him of her minister. Stanhope also promised to give Law’s son a regiment, and to secure that a writ of summons should be issued calling Lord Banbury, his brother-in-law, to the House of Lords, a question as to his title having arisen which had hitherto denied him this privilege. Lord Stair refers to this step by his government in a letter dated 14th February, 1720. “As to Lord Stanhope, I have ever had a very great value and esteem for him; and I have upon all occasions endeavoured to give him the sincerest proofs of my friendship and faithful attachment to him; and I dare say it, with great truth, that I have not given him the least reason to complain of me personally. I am sorry if I have not been able to deserve his esteem, but I am sure I have deserved his friendship, at least his good-will. What has happened lately, I own to you, has piqued me very much, especially the manner of doing it; but I reckon that has proceeded from his views as a minister, in which I think he has been very much mistaken. I shall readily agree with you that if his lordship has gained Mr. Law, and made him lay aside his ill-will and ill-designs against his country, he did very right to make all sorts of advances to him, to give his son a regiment, to engage to bring Lord Banbury into the House of Lords, to sacrifice the King’s ambassador to him. If I had thought Mr. Law to be gained, I should very readily have advised to do all these very things and a great deal more. But if his lordship has not gained Mr. Law I am afraid we shall not find our account in Lord Stanhope’s supporting, when he is ready to fall, in making him first minister, and in destroying the personal credit I had with the Regent, and recalling me from this court, when my long stay should have enabled me to be better able to judge of their designs and of their ways of working than a stranger of greater capacity could probably be. A little time will show who has judged right. I do most heartily wish, for the good of my country, that I may be found to have framed a wrong judgment; but I own to you I have seen nothing yet to make me change my opinion, but on the contrary, new things every day do confirm me that Mr. Law’s designs and the views of this court are just what I represented them to be. You do me great wrong if you say that I advised to break with the Regent if he did not agree to part with Mr. Law. You will find no such thing in any of my letters. You will find then, that I thought it was useful to endeavour to shake Mr. Law’s credit with his master, to make his master jealous of Mr. Law’s ambition, and apprehensive of the dangers his presumption might lead him into; and that I thought it was fit to stand in his way, as much as it was possible, to hinder him to gain an absolute power over the Regent’s mind, and to obstruct his becoming first minister. I thought it was fit to make Mr. Law lose his temper and to make him act in passion and rage. I had not succeeded in all these views when Lord Stanhope arrived and thought fit to demolish me and all my works at once. As to Mr. Law, I have no ill-will to him, but as I take him to be a dangerous enemy to my country, I am afraid time will but too plainly show that I have judged right in this matter. As to my revocation, if it was possible I should have a mind to stay in this country, you have made it impracticable. You have taken all effectual ways that could be thought of to destroy the personal credit I had with the Regent. You have made it plain to him that I have no credit with the King, that is to say with his ministers. Lord Stanhope has declared to Mr. Law that I shall be recalled, so that is no longer a question. You are under the necessity of sending another minister to this court.”
A new element of concern for Lord Stair now introduced itself, and bulked largely in his subsequent correspondence up to the time of his departure from Paris. The occupation of Gibraltar by Britain was a sore point with France and Spain, and many efforts were made at various times to obtain her dislodgment. Lord Stanhope’s visit to Paris at this time was taken advantage of by the Regent and Dubois for the purpose of negotiating its evacuation if possible, and, according to Stair, he had given some hope of this being brought about. On the faith of this, the Regent had apparently assured the King of Spain that Gibraltar would be given up, and felt that his honour was now involved in this hope being realised. It was soon evident however that the English government had no intention at any time of entertaining proposals for its evacuation, and alarm was felt that a rupture might take place. Law, we are informed by Stair, was anxious to declare war, and was confident that the resources of France, owing to the operation of his system, were sufficient to result in a successful issue. He became very bitter in his conversation about England, and spoke with a degree of insolence, revolting even to the French. One evening he invited to dinner Lord Bolingbroke, and so fierce was his denunciation of the English that the latter vowed he would never again set foot in Law’s house. On the same occasion one of Stair’s friends had said to Law, “Sir, what is this rumour which runs through Paris about us going to have war? I am persuaded that you have nothing to do with it. A man who thinks of making a flourishing state by commerce, and by the establishments which require peace, does not think of war.” Law replied coldly to him, “Sir, I do not wish war, but I do not fear it.”
Lord Stair’s conclusions were undoubtedly biassed by the deep feelings of resentment he naturally fostered towards the man who had accomplished his downfall, and he was too ready to make use of any rumour which in any degree gave colour to the character of the designs he attributed to Law. There is no substantial evidence that Law really went so far as Stair would have us believe, and was using every means in his power to induce the Regent to make the question of Gibraltar an occasion for hostilities. It is impossible to say more than that Law was merely an interested spectator, but not an active participant during the progress of the affair. As first minister, he would be under the necessity of guarding his opinions when expressed upon the subject, but there is no reason to believe that he meant more than he said when he stated he did not wish war, but did not fear it. Yet Stair sees underlying this remark the insolence of Law with which he has been endeavouring to impress the government at home, and points out that if this be his attitude when his system is likely to fall to pieces, what would it be if his system yet proved a success.
Notwithstanding Stair’s efforts, however, the English government were not inclined to adopt his views as to Law’s designs, and indicated that he had simply allowed himself to be carried away by pique and bad temper. Stair could not of course allow an accusation such as this to pass unchallenged and replied, “God knows, that I was only actuated by feelings of zeal and of attachment towards my King and to my country. I have spoken truly, as a clear-headed man, whilst you have treated me as a dreamer; although I can say, without conceit, that you have reason to trust me and to distrust those to whom you have given trust. I do not speak of Lord Stanhope. I know him to be an honest man, and a faithful servant of the King. I respect him and honour him; and although I have had cause to complain of him, I have no resentment against him. He believed he was serving the State in humiliating me. He was deceived. Any man can be deceived. I’ll be bound for it, if you had left it to me, Law would have been lost at the present moment, and the understanding between the King and the Duke of Orleans would have been closer than ever. At the present time it is necessary to think as soon as possible about sending another minister to this court. For God’s sake, send an honest man here before everything; and a clever man if you can find him.”
Stair seems to have created an impression in the mind of his government that he wished the King to demand from the Regent a promise that he would depose Law from office at the risk of going to war; and early in March, Mr. Secretary Craggs wrote that the King would not entertain such a proposal. Stair had not, however, reduced the matter to such an issue, and on 12th March stated clearly the position he had taken up. “I must beg pardon,” he wrote, “to say two things, first that I never did put things upon that issue, and in the next place, that there was no need of putting things upon that issue. You will find in my letters that I represented to the Duke of Orleans that Law, by his vanity and presumption, was leading him into great dangers and inconveniences, both at home and abroad; that Law, by going too fast, and by taking arbitrary measures, was in a way to ruin his Royal Highness’s credit with the nation, and to overturn the whole system of the finances; and that, at the same time, Law was, by his discourse and conduct, doing everything that lay in his power to destroy the good understanding between the King and the Regent, and between the Regent and the rest of his allies, and I bade the Regent beware how he trusted the reins of his chariot to that PhÆton Law, because he would overturn it. The answer the Regent made me to these representations was, that he knew that vanity and ambition had turned his head; but that he, the Regent, would take care to keep a hand over him, and to contain him within bounds in the management of the finances; that he should have nothing to say in public affairs; that, if he pretended to meddle, the Regent would not listen to him; and that I might be well assured that it should not be in his power to create an ill understanding between him and the King.
“I believe nobody can fairly say that there is anything in my representations which imported that the King would quarrel with the Regent if he did not lay Law aside. Nor can they say that there is anything in the Regent’s answer which imports that he took what I said in that sense. On this foot things stood. I spoke very freely to the Regent what I had to say on the subject of Mr. Law, and His Royal Highness received what I said in a very friendly manner.
“When Lord Stanhope arrived, he thought fit to acknowledge Mr. Law as first minister, and to consider him as a much greater man than ever Cardinal Richelieu or Cardinal Mazarin had been; to tell the Regent that the King was very well satisfied with Mr. Law, and did not in any manner complain of him; that what I had said was entirely out of my own head, and without, and even contrary to orders; and that for so doing I should be recalled. Since that time Mr. Law has acted as First Minister, and I have had no intercourse with the Regent but in formal audiences, to deliver such messages as I received from Court, and to receive short and formal answers.
“In what manner Mr. Law has acted as First Minister, I may save you the trouble of telling you. You have seen it and felt it.
“For me; there was nothing left for me to do, but to desire to be recalled, unless I could have prevailed with myself to have acted the part of a fool, or of a knave, or of both. What I have said above, I believe, is sufficient to prove that things were not brought to that extremity that there was a necessity to declare war against France, or to make humble submission to Mr. Law.
“What has happened of late may convince you, I am sure it will the world, that I knew Mr. Law and this court better than other people do. Neither vanity or resentment prompts me to say this.
“As to the charge you bring against me, that I have exclaimed against the minister personally, and against these measures, it does not lie against me. I have behaved myself with great modesty and moderation on this side. I have never spoken of Lord Stanhope but with respect and esteem. I have writ upon that subject to yourself with great freedom, and to no other man living, my uncle Sir David excepted, to whom I endeavoured to clear myself of the heavy charge you brought against me. I shall not compare my behaviour with that of other people’s. I know how I have been represented to my master and my country. I propose no other revenge to myself than to show by my conduct that they have been unjust to me, and that I deserved fairer usage.
“If the charge you mention is laid against our ministry, viz., ‘That Law is for setting up the Pretender, and they are setting up Mr. Law; that the Regent will play us false; and that I have been ill-treated for penetrating these designs; that we are in the hands of France and dare not own it; that he understands himself with Spain, and that we shall be the dupes of this alliance, and of this war.’ If this charge is laid against the Ministers, it shall not be laid against them by my words. I shall content myself to shew my conduct, that no part of that charge lies against me.
“Believe me, my dear Craggs, I have no design to enter into any cabals, nor to make any broils in the state. If I endeavour to show you are wrong, it is with a design that you may get into the right way again as soon as possible, that you may not continue to deceive yourselves. Ask and take the assistance of people who love the King and his government. You shall always be sure of my little help to support this ministry. I am not for changes; nor can I be influenced by private resentment, which, I declare to you upon my honour, I am ready to forget, as if I never had any reason to complain. My dear Craggs, take my word for it, Mr. Law’s plan is formed to destroy the King and his government and our nation; and he will certainly bring his Master into it; nor is there any other way to divert him from that design but my showing his Master that it is dangerous for him to attack us. There is nothing but an appearance of strength and firmness on our side, or the miscarriage of Law’s system on this side, can save us from a war with France. No personal credit that anybody may flatter themselves they have with the Duke of Orleans, will signify anything to divert it. Your letter about Gibraltar was very well writ, and it was very right to write it; but I will give you my word for it, it will have no manner of weight here if Law’s system takes place. If they can bully the Ministry, or buy a party in England, we must part with Gibraltar; and when we have parted with it we shall be every way as little secure of peace as we are at present; and upon many accounts less able to support a war.”
JOHN, 2ND EARL OF STAIR.
From a Portrait in The National Portrait Gallery, Edinburgh.
Fresh apprehension seems to have been aroused in Stair’s mind as to Law’s apparently deep designs for the accomplishment of some great injury to English interests by the fact that Law about this time had purchased large quantities of South Sea stock. He communicated his apprehension to Craggs, who was not disposed to lay great stress upon the circumstance. This seems to have somewhat allayed his fears, and he accordingly wrote on 30th April:
“I am glad you do not apprehend that Mr. Law is in a condition to do us any great hurt by what he gets by the rise of our South Sea Stock. Though I know that Law will brag, yet I own to you I did apprehend that he had gained considerably and that he might be able to do us a good deal of mischief by withdrawing a very great sum himself, and by tempting other foreigners to follow his example. I suppose you know the great sums Mr. Law pretends to have in our stocks were bought in Holland.
It seems to me to be a very dangerous thing in such a country as ours, where things are so very uncertain and fluctuating, to have foreigners masters of such vast sums of money, as they must needs have at present, by the rise of our stocks. This is a terrible handle to hurt us by, in the hands of such a man as Law. I wish our monied men may be attentive enough to the security of the nation in this point; and that they may not let themselves be blinded by the flattering appearances of present gains.
I am very glad to see you think so sanguinely as to the payment of our national debts. It will be very important to give the world such impressions of our situation. By several letters I have seen from very understanding men in Holland, I should be afraid that such impressions might prevail there and at Geneva, which would be very hurtful to us, for both the Dutch and the Geneve have very great sums in our stocks.
I am afraid we have not money enough, either in coin or in paper, to move so vast a mass as our South Sea Company now comes to be. The national bank would have been a very great help. I must own I apprehend that if that matter is not settled at this time, you will meet with great opposition at any other time by the South Sea Company, which, from this time forward, we are to look upon as a very powerful body.
I am afraid our people in England think too neglectfully of Mr. Law’s schemes. I own to you, that, as this kingdom is disposed, there is a great odds to be laid that it will miscarry; but it is not impossible, far from it, that it may hold long enough to do us a good deal of mischief. Another thing I dare be bold to say—it cannot succeed without undoing us; and if Mr. Law can compass our ruin, I think he is in a fair way to carry through his project in France. I know Mr. Law himself thinks so too, and that being the case we may be very sure he will do us all the mischief in his power. You cannot think that power is small, considering the absolute authority he has acquired over the Regent. That being so I am sure you will agree with me that we cannot be too attentive to discover, prevent, and defeat the designs he may form against us. His designs are no trifling ones; they strike at the root. As to the behaviour of this court towards ours, it will depend entirely upon what happens in Sicily, and upon the King of Spain’s disposition towards the Regent, which is naturally bad, and which, I have reason to think will not be made better by the advice he receives from France. As to our friend the new Archbishop of Cambray, (the AbbÉ Dubois) he will do Law all the hurt he can, because he is firmly persuaded that Law is determined to turn him out. The truth of the matter is that Law does hate and despise him exceedingly, and it is no less true, that the AbbÉ has but very little credit at present with his master, though his master affects to say the contrary. The AbbÉ, with all the desire he has to flatter himself, sees through the disguise.”
The closing letter of this correspondence shows how humiliating was the dismissal of Lord Stair,—humiliating even to the extent of his being denied the usual privilege of seeing his sovereign on his return—and how complete was the triumph of Law over his former friend.
“I see plainly I shall not be able to see the King of England. It is a great while ago since Mr. Law told his friends here, that I should not be allowed to have the honour of seeing the King. It is pretty hard to digest I own, if, after serving the King very faithfully, very zealously, and with some success, I should have the mortification not so much as to have my master’s good countenance. However that happens to be, I am very glad His Majesty’s affairs go so very well, and that there is so good an understanding amongst them that serve him.
I shall be able to tell a good many curious particulars concerning the state of affairs here, which are not so very proper to be put into a letter. Mr. Law still brags that he will make our stocks humble, by withdrawing the French effects. He seems more bent than ever to do us mischief, believing it the only way he has left to save himself and his system. How far he may be able to draw his master into his notions, God knows. His master professes the best intentions imaginable. In the meantime they go on with the new levies with all the application imaginable; and I am assured they are giving out commissions for levying some more German regiments in Alsace. All over France they talk of a war with Britain, and the Jacobites are in greater numbers at Paris, and more insolent. They talk of great changes at this court; and that the Archbishop of Cambray is to be sent to his diocese. Law’s friends give out that he has more credit than ever at the Palace Royal. That may be; but I dare swear he has lost a great part of his master’s good opinion, though, at the same time, he is very unwilling to renounce the fine views Law had given him. I think we have nothing to fear from France at present but by surprise; but, in my opinion, it will behove us to be very attentive against something of that kind. It is plain the Jacobites have their heads filled with some such notion.
As soon as Sir Robert arrives, I shall certainly set out and leave some friends to take the best care they can to my effects.”
Thus was brought to a close an embassy which offered at its outset so bright promises, but which ended in virtual disgrace. It is very questionable if any other result could have been possible. Lord Stair possessed all the necessary qualifications for a successful ambassador, and his failure can hardly be said to have been due to want either of ability or of tact. Rather was it due to the integrity of his motives and to the high estimate he had of his office. Had he yielded to the temptation which Law set before him to enrich himself by speculation in Mississippi stock, his difference with him might never have originated, and his mission might have had a happy ending. But it is futile to speculate on probable consequences had events been other than they really were. On the other hand it is a tribute to Lord Stair’s foresight that he always predicted the downfall of Law’s schemes, and this he did even when they were at the height of their prosperity and gave every indication of probable success.
