By C. C. McCain.

Chairman of the Trunk Line Association, New York, 1909; Formerly Auditor Interstate Commerce Commission.

INTRODUCTION.

The ten years or more which have elapsed since the resumption of industrial activity that began some time in 1897 have been characterized by changes in rates of wages for substantially all kinds of labor, and in the prices of most commodities which amount to a profound and material alteration in the value of money. Wages of railway labor, prices of railway materials and supplies and prices of commodities carried by railways and of those produced by the purchasers of railway transportation have rapidly increased. This is equivalent to a decrease in the value of the money in which railway charges are paid for the appreciation of commodities is the depreciation of money. Commodities cannot have generally augmented value without money having diminished value. Railway rates have not been adjusted to this diminished value of money. The involuntary and unsolicited reduction in railway rates has gone so far as seriously to threaten the stability of railway wages and that of the whole railway industry. Some adjustment through compensatory advances in money rates (i. e., nominal rates) is, therefore, absolutely necessary. The extent of the changes which have taken place, their relation to the problem of railway rates and the adjustments which they have made necessary are set forth in the following pages.

TYPICAL UNCHANGED RATES.

A fifteen-ton car-load of fourth class freight carried all-rail between Chicago and New York at any time during the year 1897 would have brought the railways transporting it $105.00 in gross receipts.

There has been no change in the class-rates between Chicago and New York since 1897 and the same quantity of freight, classified in the same way, produces the same gross receipts now that it did in 1897.[E]

The rates between Chicago and New York, as is very well known, are the basis of all rates in the region north of the James, Potomac and Ohio Rivers, and east of the Mississippi River and of a large proportion of the rates applicable to traffic originating or destined to any point in that region. Without a change in rates between Chicago and New York there could have been, during the continuance of the system of rate adjustment that has been in force since long prior to the year 1897, no general change in the rates based upon those in force between those cities.

WAGES OF RAILWAY EMPLOYEES.

More than forty per cent. of the gross receipts of the railways of the United States are expended in the payment of employees, the sums annually paid out for that purpose since 1897 being as follows:

It is a matter of common knowledge and of frequent comment that a given sum of money will now buy very much less in labor or commodities than it would in 1897. The change has been gradual but substantially continuous and the aggregate result has been enormous. The consequence of this change has worked great hardship to those whose incomes have not been adjusted to the changed purchasing power of money but fortunately the rates of wages of nearly all workmen and the prices of practically all products of labor expended upon farms or in factories or otherwise have been raised sufficiently to more or less completely offset it. The principal sufferers are those salaried employees whose salaries have not been readjusted and those whose incomes are received under contracts covering long periods of time or are derived from the marketing of commodities or services at prices more or less effectively controlled by custom or statute. Many of the owners of railway bonds are in the second class and all interstate railways are, as to the disposal of their services, in the third class.

As already noted, the gross revenue derivable by the railways from the transportation of a carload consisting of fifteen tons of fourth class freight between Chicago and New York is the same now that it was in 1897—i. e., $105.00. But $105.00 is worth much less to any railway now than it was in 1897 for money is worth at any time what it will buy at that time. The reports of the Interstate Commerce Commission show the following increases in rates of average daily wages paid to railway employees:

The foregoing affords a means of ascertaining the real value of $105.00 of railway gross receipts in 1897 and 1907 and the decrease from the earlier to the later year. The following table shows the number of days labor of each of the different classes of railway labor which $105.00 would buy in each of the years indicated:

The foregoing shows that on the average the gross railway receipts derived from the service assumed as the basis of the calculation would purchase 16.27 per cent. less of the necessary services of railway employees, in 1907 than in 1897 and what is true of the receipts from this service is true of every dollar received by a railway—that is, no railway dollar will pay for more than eighty-four per cent., on the average, as much railway labor as it would in 1897.

The change in railway rates necessary fully to offset this decrease in the value of the money in which rates are paid would amount to an apparent advance of 19.43 per cent, of the money rates now in force.

COST OF FUEL FOR LOCOMOTIVES.

Next to labor the principal single item of expense incurred in the operation of the railways of the United States is for the fuel used in their locomotives. The expenditures for this purpose now constitute about eleven per cent. of the cost of operation and since 1897 have been as follows:

Thus, from 1897 to 1907, the cost of fuel for locomotives, in spite of the economies in its use partially suggested by the contemporaneous increase in the train-load of freight from 204.62 to 357.35 tons, or 74.64 per cent., increased 207.88 per cent., while passenger traffic increased but 126.15 per cent. and freight traffic by 148.69 per cent. Thus while there was one dollar spent for locomotive fuel in 1897 for each $17.25 of gross railway receipts the ratio had declined by 1907 to one dollar for locomotive fuel for each $12.93 of gross receipts—a difference which must plainly be productive of profound changes in the proportion of gross receipts remaining after the payment of necessary operating expenses. The average prices of coal, per ton of 2,000 pounds, at the mines, in the several states, in the years 1897 and 1907, as given by the United States Geological Survey, were as follows:

It will be noted that the cost of coal increased in every state of considerable production. In California much of the locomotive fuel used consists of petroleum, and the same fuel is used to some extent in Oregon and New Mexico.

The number of tons of coal purchasable at the mines in the several states with $105.00, the gross revenue from the typical shipment which has been used for illustrative purposes, in 1897 and in 1907, would have been as follows:

In this connection it should be noted that the United States Department of Labor reports an increase, between 1897 and 1907, in the price of anthracite of 29.23 per cent., and in bituminous coal from the Georges Creek region of 85.54 per cent.

COST OF RAILWAY SUPPLIES.

Bulletin No. 75, of the United States Bureau of Labor, shows average prices for the following articles used by railways, or, as raw materials, for the manufacture of railway supplies:

The bulletin indicates that putty, Portland cement and Ames shovels are about the only exceptions to the general rule of greatly increased prices of railway supplies. It is plain that as to all of the important supplies and materials included in the foregoing list the $105.00 of gross receipts from the typical shipment heretofore used as an example would show the same, or a greater, loss in purchasing power which has characterized the comparisons previously shown.

Evidence from official sources thus shows that in purchasing the same quantities either of labor or of supplies the railways have now to expend much larger sums than they did ten years ago. The official statistics already quoted are fully supported and their pertinence to the problem in hand is fully proven by the accounting records of the purchasing departments of the several railways. The Trunk Line Association has obtained detailed information concerning purchases in 1897 and 1907, by important railways represented in its organization, and this information has been carefully and accurately tabulated. A table showing the largely increased cost of articles which this tabulation reveals has been made Appendix B and will be found at pages 194 to 198 of this pamphlet. An examination of this appendix and, particularly of the classes of labor and of the articles shown to have greatly increased in cost, discloses the unquestionable fact that the increased cost pervades the whole aggregate of operating expenses and that there is no considerable exception to the rule that every item of operating expenditure is now very much greater than it was in 1897.

OTHER COSTS OF SUPPLYING RAILWAY SERVICES.

The cost of railway transportation which must be borne out of the receipts for railway services includes operating expenses, interest on capital and taxes. Before discussing the increase in the rate of interest demanded it is worth while to note that the exactions made by the taxing power upon the railways have also notably increased.

The sums annually paid as taxes on railway property since 1897 follow:

Thus in the years from 1897 to 1907 railway taxation per mile of line has increased from $235.36 to $353.09, or no less than 50.02 per cent.

COST OF REGULATION.

Closely akin to taxation of railway property are the additional expenses which have to be met out of railway revenues on account of public regulation. The increased and, in many cases, minute regulation imposed by the Hepburn law of 1906 and the rules and requirements established thereunder by the Interstate Commerce Commission and by various State enactments have caused the railways many new and augmented expenditures. Among the many purposes for which these expenditures have become necessary are those enumerated below:

1. Preparation, publication, filing, posting, etc., of rate schedules.

2. Compilation and tabulation of statistics, preparation and filing of annual reports of operation and finance.

3. Litigation under regulatory statutes including cases before National and State commissions and including legal and incidental expenses thereof.

4. Appliances and special equipment required by safety appliance laws.

5. Additional employees and additional wages paid on account of laws regulating the hours of labor.

Besides these and other positive additions to the expenses of operation there have been considerable reductions in revenue brought about by the various regulative statutes. Thus there have been reductions in revenue caused by the following:

1. Orders, or suggestions having practically the force of orders, requiring changes in the classification of freight.

2. Orders, or suggestions having practically the force of orders, requiring reductions in rates.

3. Statutory reduction in the rates of compensation for carrying the mail.

4. Reduction of compensation for carrying the mail made by executive order.

A painstaking effort to secure accurate statistics concerning recent increases in these expenditures and losses has been made and data for that purpose have been supplied by many of the railways operating east of the Mississippi river. These data are necessarily incomplete and fragmentary, the accounts of many of the companies not being kept in such form as fully to disclose the items desired. In few cases were the data which could be obtained for any line complete—some companies were able to report particular items while other companies could not give these, but could supply others. Generally speaking, it should be realized that the tabulation of these reports makes a showing which is incomplete mainly in the form of omissions. A conservative computation discloses that the costs due to increases in expenses or reductions in revenue imposed by statutes or by Commissions acting under Federal and State regulatory laws costs the railways of the United States approximately $200,000,000 in two years. That this is not an exaggerated estimate will be appreciated by reference to the principal general items of expenditures as enumerated on the preceding pages. Until these items shall have been assigned a proper classification in the accounts of the railroads the accurate results may not be ascertained, but it will at once occur to those in any measure informed that there has been an enormous increase of work and expense placed upon the carriers to conform to the innumerable requirements of State and Federal laws and the rulings of the Commissions thereunder, and that this burden has extended to all departments of the carriers. Litigation and miscellaneous expenses appear as a large part of these new costs, and in addition the carriers' revenues have been greatly depleted either directly by the laws, orders of Commissions or suggestions having practically the force of orders, resulting in reductions of freight and passenger charges.

COST OF OBTAINING NEW CAPITAL.

In the matter of interest on the capital employed the railways have apparently enjoyed an advantage which would seem to offset the natural tendency of interest rates to rise in response to the stimulus of augmented cost, in dollars and cents, of the commodities entering into the budget of expenditures of the average recipient of interest—that is to say, the advantage growing out of the fact that a large proportion of railway capital is secured under long-time contracts and that many of the contracts now in force unquestionably run back to a time before the extensive depreciation of the American dollar began. This advantage is a real one, but its extent is easily exaggerated. For the purpose of throwing light upon the effect upon the cost of railway transportation of the rise in interest rates which has characterized recent years an analytical study of railway indebtedness (including guaranteed dividends) amounting, in the aggregate, to $9,499,099,065 has been made. This sum represents indebtedness now outstanding and includes some duplication owing to the fact that certain of the securities represented in the aggregate are themselves based upon other securities deposited as collateral or held in the treasuries of the corporations making the secondary issues; duplication which could not be eliminated without adding vastly to the difficulty of the inquiry with no corresponding gain in the accuracy of the result. These data are also subject to the qualification necessarily due to the fact that all of the issues included were not sold at par. In some cases a small premium was doubtless obtained and in other cases a slight discount was required, but, nevertheless, it is believed that the data fairly indicate the general change in interest rates on capital loaned to railways. Of the total outstanding indebtedness of $9,499,099,065 the portion incurred during the years 1897 to 1908, inclusive, amounts to $5,466,340,252, or 57.55 per cent. The following table shows the amounts incurred at the different rates during each of the years named:

Even a cursory examination of the foregoing statement shows that the average rate of interest demanded by those who supply railway capital has greatly increased. In 1897 and 1898 the largest aggregate of new indebtedness was incurred at the rate of three and one-half per cent. per annum; in 1899, 1900, 1902, 1903, 1904, 1905 and 1906 the preponderating portion was at four per cent.; in 1907 the largest aggregate was at five per cent., while in the months of 1908 for which data are available the greater portion was obtained at six per cent. Loans at three and three and one-half per cent., which supplied a considerable aggregate during all of the years to and including 1906 and particularly in the earlier years of the period, had substantially disappeared before 1907 and no funds were procured at less than four per cent. during the portion of 1908 which is included. The increased volume of loans at five and six per cent. is equally marked. The following table makes this analysis clearer by showing the total borrowings of each year and the percentage at each rate:

The foregoing table shows that while, in 1897, the railways borrowed 87.66 per cent. and in 1898, 97.91 per cent. of the new capital obtained in the form of loans at four per cent. or better, they were compelled, in 1907, to promise more than four per cent. on 70.24 per cent. and in the first six months of 1908 to promise six per cent. on 43.00 of their borrowings. The significance of these figures is made still more apparent by the following table, which shows opposite the aggregate borrowings of each year, the interest charges thereon and the average rate upon the portion of the capital which it represents:

The foregoing shows an increase, in the average interest rate demanded upon new loans to railway corporations, from 3.90 per cent. in 1897 to 4.62 in 1907 and 5.04 in 1908. The increase in the rate from 1897 to 1907 was equal to 18.46 per cent. and from 1897 to 1908 it was 29.23 per cent. In other words, one dollar would pay interest on as much of the new capital secured by loans in 1897 as $1.29 would of the loans of 1908. The gross revenue of $105.00 obtained in both years from the typical shipment of fourth class freight between Chicago and New York, at the unchanged rate applicable to such a shipment in both years, would pay interest on $2,692.31 secured in the earlier year and on only $2,083.33 secured in the later year. The loss in power to purchase loaned capital therefore amounts to 22.62 per cent. In order fully to appreciate the importance of this rise in the cost of capital it is necessary to realize that very great sums of new capital are annually required for the necessary augmentation and improvement of railway facilities. This is made evident by the total yearly borrowings as shown in the foregoing tables, but it should be borne in mind that further sums, certainly not less extensive in the aggregate, have been raised through issues of stock, which promise no certain rate of interest, although these sums could not have been obtained unless the subscribers had considered it probable that they would, in the long run, receive returns in dividends at least equal to the "going rate" of interest. It is interesting to note that the aggregate of new capital secured by loans in each year has very largely exceeded the total interest payments to all capital obtained by borrowing. This is shown by the following table, the data in which, except those as to the sums obtained by loans, are from the reports of the Interstate Commerce Commission:

FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF THE PURCHASER OF THE SERVICES.

So far the extent and significance of the changes in the value, or purchasing power, of money have been considered from the point of view of those who produce and sell railway transportation. But equally striking changes will appear and similar conclusions are inevitable when recent history is reviewed in the aspect which it presents to those whose earnings are devoted, in part, to the purchase of the services which the railways supply. For the important consideration to the wage-earner who wishes to travel by rail or who buys commodities that have been so carried, or to the producer whose products must go to market over railway routes, is not, how much money must be paid for the railway services, but, rather, how much labor must be expended, or what quantity of his goods must be produced, in order to obtain that sum of money. If the earnings of a particular wage-earner have increased from fifty to seventy-two cents per hour, a railway service is cheaper, to him, if it costs twelve cents than it was at ten cents when his earnings were on the fifty-cent basis, for he now procures with the fruit of ten minutes' toil what formerly cost the result of twelve minutes' labor. In Bulletin No. 77, just issued by the United States Bureau of Labor, the official statistician presents data showing the relative wages per hour of many different classes of wage-earners, not including railway employees, in 1897 and 1907. While these data show that wages have almost uniformly advanced (there are ten somewhat questionable exceptions among the 342 classes) the data supplied by the Interstate Commerce Commission show that during the same period average railway freight rates have declined from 7.98 mills to 7.59 mills per ton per mile, or 4.89 per cent. A table presenting and based upon these official statistics and showing the relative wages per hour of the various classes of labor, in 1897 and 1907, the percentage increase in wages rates per hour and the increased command over railway freight services which these wage-earners have obtained through the combined effect of higher wages and lower ton-mile rates is given in Appendix C[F]. In studying the data presented in this appendix it should be borne in mind that the wages are relative and not absolute. They mean, for example, that the average male blacksmith in the agricultural implement industry was paid, in 1907, $1.25 for the same quality and period of labor for which he was paid a little less than ninety-six cents, in 1897. This increase amounted to 30.58 per cent. of the wages rate of 1897, and, combined with a decreased cost of railway freight service of 4.89 per cent., which made 95.11 cents go as far in purchasing the latter in 1907 as one dollar would go in 1897, gave him 37.29 per cent. greater command over railway freight services.

In an earlier bulletin, No. 75, published during the current year, the Bureau of Labor continued its "index numbers," which show, in similar manner, the average relative wholesale prices of the commodities entering into the ordinary budget of family expenditures. For the purpose of presenting the changes in these prices on a uniform basis the Bureau represents the averages for the ten years from 1890 to 1899, inclusive, as one hundred per cent. and reduces the averages for each year to percentages of the averages for the basic period. The following table presents these figures for the year 1897 to 1907, inclusive:

From the data in the foregoing table, which show advances averaging nearly forty-five per cent., the following table, indicating the present purchasing power over railway freight service of each class of articles, in a manner similar to that adopted to measure the increased power of labor to buy railway freight transportation, has been derived:

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AND FREIGHT RATES.

The statistician to the United States Department of Agriculture obtains annually a very large number of reports from farmers as to prices obtained for their products and these are carefully tabulated. The results show the average prices, at the farms, of the principal agricultural products. The following table shows the increased prices obtained for such products, and the increased power which these producers enjoy, per unit of their products, to purchase railway freight services:

Detailed tables presenting the data from which the foregoing averages for the whole country have been derived and showing prices and purchasing power over freight service are given in Appendix D[G]. These tables disclose the uniformity, throughout the United States, of the advance in agricultural prices and of the augmented command of agricultural producers over railway freight service.

FARM ANIMALS AND FREIGHT RATES.

The Department of Agriculture of the United States also collects data concerning the value of farm animals and annually publishes the average values reported for the first day of each successive year. All classes of farm animals have increased in value since 1897 and each represents a great command over railway freight services, for the sum representing the average value of each animal will now buy much more freight transportation than it would in 1897. This is shown by the following table:

In considering the foregoing the fact that the prices relate solely to animals on farms should be borne in mind. They are doubtless somewhat lower than for animals elsewhere located, but prices of the latter have probably moved in the same direction and in about the same extent.[H]

RAILWAY RATES IN 1897 AND AT PRESENT MEASURED IN MONEY.

Throughout the foregoing discussion reference has frequently been made to what has been assumed to be a typical shipment, that is, a fifteen-ton carload of fourth class freight transported between Chicago and New York. The typical service rendered in moving this shipment would have brought the railways gross receipts of $105.00, in 1897 or in any of the intermediate years, and would bring the same amount now. The period in question, however, has witnessed many thousands of changes in railway rates on particular commodities and between particular points, and, confining the discussion for the present to the mere expression of rates in terms of money, it is necessary to inquire whether the general level of all rates has been raised or lowered and how far the change, if any is discovered, has gone in either direction. Now, it is manifestly impossible to correlate all rates in a single tabulation, and, giving to each its proper weight in the determination of a final average, thus establish definitely and with complete precision the relation between the money rates of 1897 and those at the present time. The number of different articles shipped and the great number of different points at which each article may enter into the aggregate of traffic movement or to which it may be destined, as well as the elusive character of the factors which would indicate the relative weight properly to be allowed to each separate rate, wholly preclude the adoption of such a method. Fortunately, however, American railway accountants long ago adopted a measure of traffic movement, which was later officially sanctioned by its adoption for the same purpose by the Interstate Commerce Commission, and which, when compared with the gross receipts from freight service, results in an average that throws great light upon the movement or absence of movement in the general level of the rates charged. When the weight of any shipment, expressed in tons, is multiplied by the distance which it is carried, expressed in miles, the resulting product gives a measure of the service performed, in units which are designated as "ton-miles." When the ton-miles (or ton-mileage) of all shipments are aggregated the total represents the sum of all services. The result of dividing the revenue from a particular shipment by its ton-mileage is the average rate per ton per mile for that shipment and if the sum representing the aggregate gross receipts from all railway freight services is divided by the aggregate ton-mileage of those services the quotient obtained is the average ton-mile rate for all services. During the period from 1897 to 1907 these data have been compiled annually by the Interstate Commerce Commission under the direction of Professor Henry C. Adams, its statistician. The average rates thus established are given both for the United States as a whole and for each of ten districts or groups. The following table shows these averages as they are given in the successive annual statistical reports of the Commission:

The foregoing shows that the average rates per ton per mile, expressed in money, were lower in every group but one, as well as in the whole country, in 1907 than they were in 1897. The average for the whole country was lower in 1907 than in any other year shown except the years 1898 to 1902, inclusive, and for three of those years the difference was less than one-tenth of one mill. The decrease in the general average from 1897 to 1907 was 4.89 per cent. and the increase from 1899, the year of the lowest average, was 4.83 per cent.

So far as the quality of the ton-mile unit is affected by changes in the geographical distribution of traffic the tendency between 1897 and 1907 was toward a higher quality, for traffic movement grew more rapidly in the regions where rates are normally higher than it did in the regions of lower rates. In the following statement the groups used by the Interstate Commerce Commission are arranged with the group in which ton-mileage increased most rapidly from 1897 to 1907 at the top, the group that increased next most rapidly in the second line, and so on to the group that increased least rapidly at the bottom:

It will be noted from the foregoing that the group in which the average rates were highest in both 1897 and 1907 shows the most rapid increase in traffic movement and that, with few exceptions, the regions of higher rates show more rapid augmentation of ton-mileage. This is exactly what might have been anticipated, for the highest average rates are usually to be found in the regions most scantily populated and, as these regions are filling up and are therefore those most rapidly growing in population and industry, they naturally show the greatest relative increases in freight tonnage. The only notable exception is furnished by New England, a region of high development, but where traffic movement is largely of a character which imposes higher average rates. In the following table the traffic increase is given for the regions that had ton-mile rate averages above and below the average for the whole country, in 1897:

The region with rates above the average in 1897 had 45.23 per cent. of the total ton-mileage in that year, and 48.07 per cent. in the year 1907. Of the total increase in traffic movement 49.98 per cent. was in this region. The precise effect that these changes in the geographical distribution of ton-mileage would have had upon the average ton-mile rate for the whole country is shown by the computation set forth in the following table:

By dividing the aggregate of the products in the last column of the foregoing by the total ton-mileage shown in the second column, an average is obtained which represents the ton-mile rate that would have resulted in 1907 had the traffic of each group in that year moved in precisely the same volume in which it actually moved and had the average rates in each group been exactly the same as they were in 1897. This shows that, under the conditions assumed, the average ton-mile rate for the whole country would have been 8.10 mills or 0.12 mill higher than in 1897. This advance of 1.50 per cent. would have been wholly due to the more rapid growth of traffic in the regions of normally higher rates. The chief significance of so small a change in so long a period is, really, to indicate that the ton-mile unit, so far from being of rapidly changing character, is actually, at least as far as it might be assumed to be affected by changes in the location of traffic movement, a fairly stable unit and thus an excellent measure of the rise or fall in rates. Whether the same conclusion is to be derived from a study of the changes in the proportion of the total movement made up of commodities of different grades and naturally taking different rates is now to be made the subject of inquiry.

Publication of the classified statistics of tonnage necessary for such an inquiry was begun by the Interstate Commerce Commission with the report for the year 1899. Consequently it is not practicable to extend the inquiry to a period prior to that year. The following statement shows the number of tons of freight of each of the classes of commodities named which were received by the railways for transportation in 1899, 1903 and 1907 and the proportion of the tonnage in each class to the total number of tons carried:

It should be observed that the foregoing statement represents tons received for shipment regardless of the distance carried and, in consequence, does not throw the light upon traffic movement that would be available if it were possible to know the ton-mileage of each class of commodities. Nevertheless, the data undoubtedly convey some information as to the character of the ton-mile unit during the different years and the nature of the changes in its quality which are in progress. This will be made more evident by the following table showing comparisons for the years 1899 and 1907:

Obviously the effect of the increases shown in the foregoing upon the quality of the average ton-mile must be in proportion as they have exceeded or fallen short of the average increase shown at the foot of the last column. There is no question that, in general, products of agriculture, animals, forests and mines are low-grade commodities, or that, on the other hand, the commodities classed as manufactures, merchandise and miscellaneous are high-grade articles. An increase in excess of the general average increase in the first four classes named would tend to lower the quality of the average ton-mile while the opposite effect, that is, a raising of the quality, would result if the last three classes should increase more rapidly than the increase in all tonnage. Adopting this classification, the following shows the respective increases in high-grade and low-grade tonnage:

The considerably greater increase in the tonnage of high-grade articles indicated by the foregoing is scarcely within the possible margin of error in the classification, but, in any event, what the figures certainly prove is the absence of any actually far-reaching change in the typical or average unit of traffic. That this conclusion extends to traffic movement is clearly probable.

PRICES AND ACTUAL RATES.

Comparisons between actual prices of commodities shipped by rail and typical freight charges on the same articles, for 1897 and 1907, demonstrate the fact that while prices have almost uniformly advanced the greater number of rates have remained stationary while among those which have changed the reductions are as numerous as the advances and exceed the latter in extent and importance.

[Mr. McCain here presents a table compiled from reports of the Bureau of Labor of the actual prices of commodities and the rates between principal points of shipment, occupying pp. 50-58 of his pamphlet.]

Examination of prices collected and reported by the Bureau of Labor, giving the prices in 1899 and 1907 of 229 articles, shows that among these 204 prices or 89.08 per cent. of the total were increased. The rates on forty-nine of these articles were advanced an average of 13.14 per cent. and the rates on forty-eight of them were reduced an average of 16.44 per cent. Other conclusions are shown in the following summary table:

The foregoing shows that while prices were advanced for 204 out of 229 articles, or 89.08 per cent. of the entire number included in the table, the freight rates on the same articles, as expressed in money, were advanced in but forty-nine instances, or 21.40 per cent. of the total, money rates were reduced in forty-eight instances, or 20.96 per cent. of the total, and remained stationary in 118 instances, or 57.64 per cent. of the total. Of the rates advanced forty-four were in cases in which the prices had also advanced, and of the rates reduced forty-two applied to articles which had advanced in price. Even as to the commodities which had advanced in price, the average advance being over fifty-five per cent., money rates were advanced in but forty-four instances out of 204 and the average advance was but 13.77 per cent. and there were forty-two reductions in money rates, such reductions averaging 16.86 per cent.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DEPRECIATION OF MONEY.

It has now been fully demonstrated (first) that the railways have to pay much more, probably not less on the average than twenty-five per cent. more, for everything they require in the conduct of their business, including labor, than they did ten years ago, (second) that those who make use of railway services receive much more, probably not less on the average than twenty-five per cent. more, for their labor or for the commodities which they produce than they did ten years ago, (third) that average rates per ton per mile for railway freight transportation, expressed in money, that is to say, in dollars and decimal fractions of dollars, are now somewhat lower than they were in 1897 or formerly, and (fourth) that the ton-mile unit is a highly stable one as to quality and that in consequence of this stability the ton-mile rates accurately answer the question whether rates, expressed in money, have remained stationary, have advanced or have declined. The latter conclusion has been supplemented and re-enforced by data from the classifications and rate schedules which tend strongly to prove the same fact. Therefore, it has been made plainly apparent that there has been a decline in money rates since 1897. But railways require money only to remunerate the highly skilled labor they employ, to purchase necessary materials and supplies, to pay taxes and to compensate the capital they use. Consequently money is worth to the railway corporation, as to the wage-earner, only what it will buy for the satisfaction of wants. A dollar which will pay for less labor or buy less fuel for locomotives is worth less to the railway just as a dollar that will buy less bread or clothing is worth less to the man who works for wages or receives it as interest on his savings. It has long been realized that any effort to study the question of wages, throughout an extended period, which fails to take into consideration the purchasing power of the money received is worse than valueless, because it is deceptive and misleading. It has been generally recognized also that any effort to consider the condition of particular classes of producers by comparisons of the prices obtained for their products at different periods, as that of farmers by the prices of corn and wheat, is similarly dangerous unless these prices are turned into quantities of the commodities which such producers must purchase.

[In elucidating this obvious point Mr. McCain cites such authorities as Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, President Hadley of Yale, Professor Frank W. Taussig of Harvard, and then continues.]

A rapid decrease in the purchasing power of the money they receive has brought about, within a single decade, a reduction in railway freight rates that cannot be less than twenty-five per cent. This reduction began almost imperceptibly at a time when American railway rates were already lower than ever before in the history of railways and lower than anywhere else in the world. It has proceeded, concurrently with the fall in the real value (that is in the purchasing power) of the American dollar, but in such subtle form that only when its consequences threaten the stability of the American railway system, the wages of railway employes and the prosperity of the great rail-manufacturing, car-building and other allied industries is its real significance and extent perceived even by those most immediately interested. That such a threat now hangs over the railway industry of America and every employe and industry dependent upon it is too plain for argument. The situation is acute and nothing but a prompt adjustment of the rates obtained for the services rendered to offset, partially, at least, the loss in the value of the money received will prevent disaster. That such an adjustment, if effected now, will, at best, be tardy and belated is evident from the facts herein presented, which show that prices in every other industry and the wages of all artisans were long ago adjusted to this fundamental condition.

APPENDIX B

Statement showing prices of railway supplies purchased in 1897 and 1907 as disclosed by the records of various Eastern railways. It should be noted that the quality of the supplies, made the basis of this statement, may have changed somewhat between 1897 and 1907, but in few instances would the allowance for this source of variation materially affect the results.