Review of the Turco-Egyptian Question—Mehemet Ali not the Aggressor—Hostile Preparations of the Porte—Representations of the Allied Powers—What Interests affected by the Independence of Mehemet Ali—Views of France—Designs of Russia.

The Syrian and Egyptian question being now brought to a close, by the total evacuation of the former country, and Mehemet Ali’s establishment in the hereditary pachalic of Egypt almost on his own terms, it is time to inquire what has been gained by measures that had well nigh plunged Europe into a war, the end of which no man could have foreseen.

I think every impartial man who has read the correspondence must allow that Mehemet Ali was not the aggressor. It is quite true he was anxious to be independent, and no wonder that a man who had acquired such extensive possessions by the sword should be desirous of emancipating himself from a weak master. I am not going to justify Mehemet Ali’s first invasion of Syria: that would have been the time for the Allies to have discouraged him, and a naval force sent off Acre would have been quite sufficient to have put an end to his ambitious designs; but nothing of the sort was done. Mehemet Ali was allowed to follow up one victory after another, till his road to Constantinople was open, and the Turks, having been refused assistance by their friends, called in the Russians to protect them; and the Treaty of Kutayah settled for that time the Eastern question.

The Allied Powers, on learning that preparations were making for war at Constantinople, instructed their Ambassadors to urge the Porte to preserve peace. At the same time Russia took the initiative, and instructed her Consul to desire Mehemet Ali to recall Ibrahim, and to withdraw the Egyptian army to Damascus. What right had Russia, after consenting to the Treaty of Kutayah, to make such a proposal? Would it not have been safer and wiser, had the Allied Powers preserved the status quo, or even persuaded the Porte to acknowledge Mehemet Ali at once, and confer on him the government of the countries he had conquered, stipulating at the same time that he should establish a milder government in his extensive possessions? It had been proved that Turkey, weak as she was, was entirely incapable of governing her distant provinces; and would it not have been better to have given her a powerful ally who would have been interested in protecting her against her natural enemy, Russia, than curtailing his power, by restoring provinces which she had not been able to govern, and at best giving her a discontented vassal? It may be argued that such a proceeding would have been dismembering the Turkish empire: I answer, that was already done by the Treaty of Kutayah, and it would have been much safer to have let things alone.

Candia, which was entirely separate both from Egypt and Syria, might have been restored to the Porte; this would have given her more real strength than she is ever likely to receive from her very imperfect possession of Syria.

Let us now examine whose interests would have been affected by giving Mehemet Ali independence. No power in Europe is so much interested in keeping well with Mehemet Ali as Great Britain, and no power is more aware of that than France; for in the very first conversation Count MolÉ had with Lord Granville^[132] he alluded to the subject, and the French Government have never let slip an opportunity of doing acts of kindness to Mehemet Ali, so as to keep him as much out of our hands as possible, and I fear they have too well succeeded. France had opened a considerable trade with Egypt, and she entertained great fears that English enterprise would supplant her; no wonder, then, that she should have befriended the Pacha in every possible way. France is as well aware as we are, that steam navigation having got to such perfection, Egypt has become almost necessary to England as the half-way house to India, and indeed ought to be an English colony. Now if we wished to weaken Mehemet Ali, with a view, in the event of the breakup of the Turkish empire, which is not far distant, to have seized Egypt as our share of the spoil, we were perfectly right in our policy; or even, had we not looked so far ahead, it might, perhaps, have been politic to have confined Mehemet Ali to Egypt, so that in the event of his stopping the road to India by Suez, we might have the road of the Euphrates open, one remaining in the possession of the Ottoman empire, and the other in that of the Pacha of Egypt. It is not, however, usual for a Government to quarrel with their own interests, and it is so decidedly the advantage of the Pacha of Egypt to facilitate, by every possible means, the passage across the Isthmus of Suez, that on the whole I believe the soundest policy of Great Britain would have been to have supported Mehemet Ali, and I have not the smallest doubt that when France saw we were committed against him, she seized that opportunity of quitting the alliance in order to make the Pacha her firm friend.

France, however, though she had all the desire to protect the Pacha, even at the risk of war, with match lighted ready to put to the gun, hesitated, and, fortunately for Europe at large, Louis Philippe had either not nerve to begin the strife, or being desirous of preserving peace, refused to adopt M. Thiers’ plan of sending the French fleet to Alexandria. The Ministers resigned, and Europe was saved from a general conflagration.

What aid France actually promised to the Pacha, or whether she ever decidedly promised him any, we do not know, but it is not to be supposed he would have resisted the wishes of the Allied Powers without some hope of assistance at the last moment. The fall of Acre opened the Pacha’s eyes; he turned his back on France, and listened to English counsels, which guided him for a while. But the hostile conduct of our Ambassador at Constantinople so disgusted him, that he again turned to France, who received him with open arms, and thus completely destroyed the English influence in Egypt.

I think I have shown that England had no immediate reason to clip the Pacha’s wings, and that France supported him because England was against him. To Prussia it must have been quite indifferent whether Mehemet Ali kept possession of Syria or not; nor do I see what interest Austria could possibly have in displacing him—quite the contrary. Russia cannot be a pleasant neighbour to Austria; and the Porte is a feeble ally. By raising Mehemet Ali the Porte would have been strengthened; and indeed, the Pacha, in possession of Syria and Egypt, would have been as much interested in controlling the power of Russia as the Sultan himself. Who then was to gain by reducing the power of Mehemet Ali? Russia! and Russia alone.

The Emperor of that great and powerful state saw clearly that the duration of the Ottoman empire was drawing to a close; and that, sooner or later, Russia would be the greatest gainer by its dissolution. It is not then to be wondered at that she should be content to wait her time, and accept the legacy that would fall in to her at its demise; and all she had to do was to prevent a skilful practitioner coming to her assistance. That practitioner was Mehemet Ali; and had he been supported by France, England, Austria, and Prussia, his independence, granted by the Porte and guaranteed by those Powers, would have been a far greater blow on Russia than she has received for many years; and which blow, I have no doubt, she would have used every effort to avert. We, however, fell into her views; the Treaty of the 15th of July was signed; Mehemet Ali has been sent back to Egypt; the Syrian provinces restored to the Porte, and she has become weaker than ever.

Various reasons have been given for Mehemet Ali’s obstinate refusal to listen to the advice of the Allies. At one time it was supposed he was backed by Russia, who wished for an excuse to come to Constantinople for the second time; and, indeed, after the battle of Nizib, and the defection of the Turkish fleet, that was my opinion. To check Russia, I always thought that the combined fleets should have proceeded at once to Constantinople, which was the thing, of all others, the Emperor wished to avoid; and Count Nesselrode distinctly stated to Count Medem, that if a French fleet appeared in the sea of Marmora, he would withdraw the Ambassador, and then take such measures as he saw necessary to re-establish the independence of the Porte^[133].

When France began to take a different view of the question from the other Powers, and support Mehemet Ali, Russia at once came forward, and despatched Baron Brunnow to England with a letter from the Emperor to the Queen. Part of the proposal of Russia was that the French and English should appear off Alexandria, while the Russian fleet should anchor in the Bosphorus. This France most properly and most decidedly objected to. Lord Palmerston took the same view; and though he expressed himself perfectly satisfied with the good intentions of Russia, he was of opinion that if it was necessary for a Russian force to appear in the Bosphorus, a British force should be there also. To this, as might be expected, Baron Brunnow objected, and lamented that the British Government had not more reliance on the good faith of Russia. After various discussions, unnecessary to enter upon here, Russia gave up the point of being the sole protector of Constantinople, and consented to a small English force being sent there in the event of the Russian fleet appearing in the Bosphorus^[134]. France in consequence withdrew from the alliance, and the Four Powers decided so far to fall into the views of Russia as to put down Mehemet Ali, who was the best supporter the Ottoman empire could have had, and give back Syria to the Porte, and thereby accelerate her fall.

The defection of France brought the other Powers closer together; and the insurrection breaking out in Lebanon hastened the signing of the Treaty of the 15th of July. We have seen that the movement was put down by the energy of the Pacha; and that he refused the conditions that were offered to him, and determined to defend himself; and, under all circumstances, I think he was right. He had good intelligence from Constantinople; he knew the Turkish Government could only spare a very small force; he knew we had only 1500 marines in the fleet; he was quite certain that Prussia would send no troops to Syria; and he did not think that Austria would; and he was sensible that Great Britain, Austria, and Prussia, would be very unwilling to call in the military assistance of Russia, which would also be disagreeable to the Porte. Besides this, he had a very large army in Syria, which had always been victorious, and was well commanded, and the season of the year was far advanced, and not a safe harbour or anchorage (with the exception of Scanderoun, which was too far distant) on the coast where our ships could take shelter in the winter. In addition to all this, he was backed by France, and was determined to put every thing to the hazard of a die; and had his views been properly followed up, he must have succeeded.