19, Little Tower Street, Mincing Lane,
London, 15th February, 1883.

“Indian Tea Statistics.”

Dear Sir,—Now that the annual figures are made up, we beg to submit a statement showing the continued progress made by Indian Tea in public estimation, together with comparative figures relating to the consumption of China and Indian Teas,—And remain, dear Sir, yours faithfully,

Gow and Wilson, Indian Tea Brokers.

The very considerable increase in the home consumption of Indian Tea during the last quarter of 1882, and January this year, once more attracts attention to the growing importance of India as a field of production, and the increasing appreciation of the British public for Indian Teas, whether used alone or mixed with China sorts. Notwithstanding the check to consumption in the early part of 1882, when Indian medium and common Teas were just 50 per cent. dearer than they now are, the average monthly deliveries of the first three months were 3,670,000 lbs., or 230,000 lbs. a month more than the average of the first quarter of 1880, with prices much the same at both periods. Quotations last year receded step by step, and, as prices dropped, so we found the consumption grew, till for the last quarter of 1882, with its very low range of prices, the average monthly deliveries reached the unprecedented figures of over 5¼ million pounds.

The average monthly deliveries in each quarter of the last five years have been as follows:—

(In thousands of lbs., 000’s omitted.)

During the year 1878, out of every 100 lbs. of all descriptions of Tea consumed in this country, 23, or one in about four-and-a-third, was Indian Tea. Last year the proportion was 31 per cent., or nearly one in three.

These figures show, in the clearest manner, how steadily Indian Tea is becoming popular.

The unevenness of the quarterly deliveries of China Tea in the year 1878 and 1879 is due to the apprehensions felt in those years that the duty would be increased. In consequence, clearances were hastily made before the Budget announcement, and the deliveries immediately after sank to very low figures, increasing again as stocks of retailers were depleted. In March, 1880, again there was a pressure to clear Teas, which brought up the total deliveries of the first quarter to a high level. A considerable check was given to deliveries of Indian Teas during the latter part of 1881 and the early part of 1882 through the rise of prices during that period.

The most noticeable feature of the last three calendar years is the stationariness of deliveries of China Teas at the reduction from the level of both 1878 and 1879. Approximately the deliveries of China and Indian Teas in the five years ending 31st December in each case may be given, in millions of pounds, as follows:—

The deliveries of China Tea have receded from 125 million pounds in 1879 to 113 million pounds in 1882, while the home consumption of Indian Tea has increased from 35 million pounds to 51 million pounds in the corresponding years.

Notwithstanding the supply of Indian Tea for the season 1882-3 is estimated at the unprecedented figure of 55 million pounds against the actual imports in the previous two season years of about 50 million and 46 million pounds respectively, it appears not unlikely the consumption of 1882-3 will once again, as in 1880-81, overtake the supply and reduce the stocks by July next to the equivalent of less than three months’ deliveries.

We find that there has been received to the 31st December last, 33,218,000 lbs., leaving to arrive 21,782,000 lbs. for the six months ending 30th June next, to make up the estimated supply of 55 million pounds which, according to Indian advices, will be available for shipment to this country. The imports of the current six months, therefore, will be but slightly in excess of those of the corresponding half-year, when 20,948,000 lbs. were received; for although the shipments of 1882-3 are expected to show an excess of more than five million pounds over 1881-2, exporters this season have hurried forward their Teas early and in the six months ended December 31st the arrivals in the United Kingdom were 32,218,000 lbs. against only 28,947,000 lbs. in the corresponding half of 1881.

The significant feature of the movement, however, is the very agreeable surprise, month by month, caused by the publication of the delivery figures. These compare for the last few months as follows:—

Deliveries of the last Four Months compared with corresponding Months.

A continuance of similar large increases is most probable, especially as we compare with the relatively small deliveries of February to April inclusive of last year, when only 10,489,000 lbs. were taken from warehouse, against 12,782,000 lbs. in the same months of 1881—a decrease of 2,293,000 in three months. Part of the decrease may be attributed to the then higher range of medium and common Indian Teas.

The net result of the above statistics is that—with no materially larger arrivals visible, even with the liberal allowance of 5,000,000 lbs. increased shipments for the crop year—the deliveries give every promise of showing very considerable expansion, and, as we have said, threaten for the complete year to more than absorb the extra supply.

To enable anyone to check and form an independent opinion on the forecast we venture to give, we present below the imports and deliveries, half-year by half-year, for the four seasons 1879-80 to 1882-83 inclusive, with the totals of each crop year:—

Imports of Indian Tea.

Deliveries of Indian Tea.

These figures show an estimated supply to the end of June next of 21,782,000 lbs., and an estimated consumption of 28,802,000. The former is based on the statements that the available supply for the United Kingdom will be 55 million pounds, and the latter on the actual delivery to January inclusive, and estimated average deliveries of 4,500,000 lbs. a month for the remainder of the half-year. Having these figures before us, we can proceed to calculate the effect on stocks.

The exports to Australia (which, as it is well known, have increased more than twenty-fold in six years) now occupy a position only second to that of the United Kingdom; and if the P. and O. Company would see its own interest, it would facilitate by every means in its power so important a development of a great industry.

The Straits Settlements, in spite of their proximity to China, took last year ten times the quantity they took six years ago; and Persia, strange to say, has taken 54,712lbs. against 334lbs. in 1876-77—Turkey in Asia and Egypt, together, having taken also 21,488lbs. against 886lbs. in the same period.

Mr. Liotard is of opinion that these are not a tithe of the openings that might be found; and it is to be hoped that at the Amsterdam Exhibition and elsewhere the Tea Syndicate will in no way relax its efforts.

The imports of China Tea to India have, in the six years also above referred to, increased about 60 per cent. Speaking on this point, we are of opinion that the Syndicate might well make efforts to increase the local consumption of Indian Tea to the replacement of Chinas, and we feel sure that such organised exertion would be followed by very satisfactory results.

The re-export of China Tea from India shows four times the quantity of six years ago—by far the greater quantity going to Persia and Turkey in Asia. Mr. Liotard thinks that the N.-W. P. and the Punjab might appropriate a good deal of this trade; and from the character of the Teas of these districts we are disposed to agree with him. The great increase of export from Karachi shows that this, to some extent, is being done.

The abolition of the duty on China Tea imported to India, under the recent free trade policy, appears to have had a prejudicial effect on the planters in Northern India—who can ill afford it. The figures given at the commencement of the pamphlet show that the number of plantations in Northern India has increased in six years from 851 to 1,422, and the area from 4,246 to 7,466 acres; the outturn from 1,311,113 lbs. to 2,271,773 lbs. These figures speak of great activity in production, and show the necessity for every exertion being employed to open out new markets. A combined Syndicate for all the districts in Northern India, on the lines of the one now established in Calcutta, is suggested, but how far this is practicable we are not at present prepared to say.

We see from the North China Herald that the exports of Tea from Shanghai and the Yang-tse ports to England during the current year have fallen off some six and a-half million pounds (8½ per cent.), and that there is also a decrease of some six million pounds in the quantity sent to America this last year—making a difference of nearly thirty per cent.

On the other hand, there has been an increase of nearly three million pounds (45 per cent.) in the direct export to Russian ports. Two large cargoes—one of nearly three million pounds destined for England, and one of almost two million pounds bound for Russia—were lost, so that the real increase of China Tea sent to Russia is only one million pounds, which would reduce the increase to about 15 per cent. The decrease of Tea sent to England becomes even greater, reducing the receipts as compared with last year by nearly ten million pounds. Another aspect of the question must, however, be considered, namely, that the real displacement, i.e., in the amount of Tea destined for the English market, would be only six and a-half million pounds, and it is not safe to reckon on a recurrence of loss of such a heavy quantity by shipwreck.

The decrease of China Tea sent to America is almost entirely in green Teas, there being only a falling off of 40,000lbs. in black, as compared with one of over six millions in green Tea. The falling off as regards the English market is much more evenly distributed between the two varieties, the difference being greater in that of black than of green Tea.

While America takes from the Shanghai ports over four times as much green as black Tea, England, on the other hand, takes eleven times as much black Tea as it does of green Tea.

These last facts might make it worth the while of planters in the North-West Provinces and in the Punjab to combine to exploit the American markets with half-chests of green Tea, for the manufacture of which those districts are famous, and for which there is so little demand at present in the Central Asian market. We merely throw out the suggestion, knowing that most of the planters in these parts could ill afford to risk much in such an experiment. It is possible that the Syndicate here, which already ships largely to America, might arrange to ship green Tea for such of the planters in Northern India as cared to join the Calcutta body.

The American demand for green Tea is so large, that a quantity representing the entire outturn of Northern India would form but a small percentage of the whole, and if Indian green Tea from the Himalayas were taken up in that market, a demand for the whole quantity produced might easily arise. Whether it would ever be able to compete with China green Tea in the matter of price we do not know, and we should think it would be up-hill work, and attended with some loss—in the first instance at any rate.