During the month of August 1875, the situation in Eastern Europe suddenly assumed a threatening aspect, through the outbreak of an armed insurrection against the Turkish rule in Herzegowina, actively supported by Servia, Montenegro, and Bosnia, and countenanced (at any rate in secret) by Russia. The Servians were foremost in clamouring for war, hoping by the prowess of their own army in the field of battle and the assistance of Austria and Russia to shake off finally the hated rule of the Sultan.

The oppressed and persecuted Christians of the north-western portion of the Balkan peninsula had watched the steady progress and constant development of their brethren in Croatia, Servia, and Montenegro with curious eyes, whilst they themselves were still groaning under the heavy Ottoman yoke. Nor, indeed, was this feeling of despair and exasperation confined to the Christian inhabitants alone, for the Bosnian Mohammedans, who had hitherto fought for the Sultan and whose ancestors, in order to retain their possessions, had embraced Islam, now joined the Christian insurgents in aiming at the separation of Bosnia and Herzegowina from the Ottoman Empire. The secret debates in the Servian Skuptschina resulted in the presentation of two addresses to Prince Milan, one advocating the proclamation of peace to be published, the other offering him 3,000,000 ducats and an army of 40,000 men to support the rebellion—to be kept secret. Montenegro was only waiting for a signal from Servia before commencing open hostilities.

The manifesto of the insurgents demanded the autonomy of Bosnia and Herzegowina under a Christian ruler; in return for this they pledged themselves to recognise the suzerainty of the Porte and to pay tribute in the same way as the other vassal States of the Ottoman Empire. An attempt by the Great Powers to maintain peace through the mediation of their consuls failed owing to the insurgents refusing to place any confidence in the execution of the reforms promised by the Porte.

To Prince Charles Anthony, October 3rd, 1875.

"The disturbances in the Balkan peninsula, though apparently quieted for the moment, are still far from settlement. The insurrection is making great secret progress and gathering force like an avalanche. As the original motive was neither a political nor a national one, but merely a rebellion against oppressive taxation from which the Christian peasant hoped to free himself by force of arms, peace will not be restored until radical reforms put an end to the misrule of the Pachas. Oriental Christians are thoroughly tired of Turkish misgovernment, and but for the entente of the Northern Powers serious complications would long ago have arisen. As it is, they are only delayed; they certainly are not entirely done away with. Diplomacy is incapable of solving the Eastern Question; the East alone can solve it on the field of battle by a combination of the nations directly interested! Our present policy is to await the advantage of events; the financial ruin of Turkey will then aid us further.

"In Servia everything is topsy-turvy, and the end will be either a war or a revolution. In any case serious times are coming for us, and no one knows when a clear insight into this muddle will be obtained. For my own part, I want to gain time in order to regulate various questions of economy, such as the re-purchase of the railways; I should also like to increase the military strength of my country. Our new arms will not be delivered before spring."

From the German Crown Prince.

"Matters are progressing slowly but surely in the Empire. The German nation adheres to the Emperor and the Empire, whilst many Cabinets only yield to force of circumstances. In South Germany the WÜrttemberg Army Corps has been able to assimilate our principles so thoroughly that it is almost on the level of a Prussian Corps. The Bavarians, too, are very industrious, and take great pains to bring their army organisation up to our standard, in spite of certain hostile elements whose aim it is to frustrate this object, and who have succeeded in preventing Prussian instructors from being sent there, and Bavarian soldiers from coming to us to learn their work, which WÜrttemberg has done for the last eight years.

"I found your dear father as full of mental vigour as ever, but, unfortunately, quite unable to walk; on the other hand, he possesses remarkable skill in managing his invalid chair, in which he moves about the room without any assistance! Your mother, brother, and sister seemed happy and in good health, and the family circle was uncommonly merry. A water-colour in your mother's room greatly interested me; it represents you handing the insignia of his office to a Metropolitan, and you look like a Father of the Church yourself. It seems to me that in your part of the world a ruler has more influence in the appointment of the high dignitaries of the Church than here—a truly enviable state of affairs....

"I am enjoying these warm autumn days in peace and quiet, after having drained the cup of inspections to the dregs. I am always willing to fulfil my duties, but there are limits, especially when one is no longer as young as one was. I had to attend manoeuvres in WÜrttemberg, Bavaria, Silesia, and Mecklenburg, and as these countries do not exactly lie close together, I dashed from one to the other by rail, like a state messenger. Victoria and I spent six enjoyable weeks in the spring in gorgeous Italy, just in time to reassure the apprehensive political amateurs who were excited by absurd rumours of war.

"William[18] is in the first form at the Cassel Gymnasium. We think that the next two years, while he is growing up, will be beneficial to his development; he likes being there. Henry really seems to be taken with the idea of a sailor's life; we shall therefore soon have to prepare him for this career."

The declaration of the agents of the guaranteeing Powers that they would not protect Servia from invasion unless the aggressive policy of the Ristitch Ministry was abandoned led to the fall of the Ministry towards the end of September. This event was regretted by none except the adherents of the Red Party, who, however, retained the reins of power. A saying current at the time made the following striking comparison: "Servia is peopled with Ministers, like Roumania!"

To the German Crown Prince, October 22nd, 1875.

"Your kind letter was a source of real joy to me. God's best gift to humanity is loyalty; and I think He must have given you a double measure. That we, who are separated from all our loved ones for life, are doubly rejoiced to find ourselves remembered, I need not tell you, nor that your sympathy with our eternal regret has comforted us. At this moment we are suffering an unexpected and uncommon trial; Elisabeth felt an ever increasing difficulty in walking this summer, which we attributed to malaria, dampness, and a tendency to rheumatism. For the last few days she has remained in bed, lame in both feet. I need not tell you how great is our terror after the experiences of both our families! The affair, however, has now taken a turn for the better....

"I was greatly interested by what you wrote about your children: so intelligent and simple an education must certainly make them thorough in every way. I find it hard to think of you surrounded by such big sons....

"Great excitement prevails just now in Servia; I think the young Prince is either steering towards a war or a revolution! It is true at present he is enjoying his honeymoon with his pretty wife, who is closely related to all the great families of Moldavia. The Servians would certainly have preferred to see their ambition satisfied by the choice of a 'real Princess' as a consort for the Prince...."

To Prince Charles Anthony, November 27th, 1875.

"... So long as the suzerainty was merely an empty form, restricted to the payment of tribute or to impediments in affairs of treaties, mints, and orders, Europe was justified in declining to hear our complaints; but from the moment that our dependence on the Porte hinders our economical development, hampers our financial reforms, and damages our credit, we can reasonably demand that a sharp political line of demarcation be drawn between an Empire which is incapable of any reform and a flourishing young State which has given Europe material guarantees during the last few years! I recently had a conversation on the subject with the Austrian representative, who admitted that this was the correct view of the situation, but that a precipitate step might compromise the excellent position which Roumania occupies to-day. I replied that, before all else, I desired the preservation of peace, in order to gain time for the execution of all necessary reforms, the re-acquisition of the railways, and the construction of connecting lines, and that it was the business of the Great Powers to secure us a position which corresponded to the interest and dignity of the country.

"Unfortunately the result of this Eastern tangle cannot be foreseen. Do the three great Northern Powers really desire peace? And will they ever succeed in restoring peace? There are too many factors to be taken into consideration; Turkey seems to have been given up at last (in the public opinion of Europe); even the English are being forced to accustom themselves slowly to this idea, which will certainly cost them much. When once considerations for the Porte are abandoned, the solution of the Eastern Question, which frightens the diplomats of Europe, will be materially simplified. Roumania is destined to become the Belgium of the Lower Danube; why do the Cabinet hesitate to declare this? We can wait; but, as far as Europe is concerned, it would be a guarantee of peace in the East.

"I opened the Chambers to-day with a short and powerful speech from the throne, which I am sure will make no unfavourable impression in Europe. The disturbances in Herzegowina could not be passed over in silence, but were mentioned with such caution that public opinion cannot be disquieted. Our relations with the Turks are strained: they will not grant us even the smallest concession; they actually refuse to concede us the name Roumania; all this is to their own disadvantage.... Greece has begun to stir; deputations from Thessaly, Epirus, and Crete have appeared in Athens, and their proposals have been very favourably received. The aggrandisement of Greece is the only salvation for that unfortunate country."

From Prince Charles Anthony, December 1875.

"The Eastern Question will shortly be solved; what could only have been expected to happen in the course of years will have already come to pass. The chief point is that France and England have at length begun to realise that the 'sick man' can no longer be helped. Turkey perishes through the financial ruin she has brought upon herself! For the distant observer it is interesting to note that the eyes of all are turned towards Roumania, whose moderation is highly appreciated everywhere. This moderation is the only means by which Europe can be prepared for the approaching independence of your country—an independence which must be founded on the belief of its necessity, and when it comes, must come as a surprise to nobody. I congratulate you on your political reserve and on the art of waiting, the exercise of which you seem to have mastered in opposition to the character of the Roumanian nation. Precipitate action would be a great mistake, and could not be excused, even were the peace of the country at stake; the whole of Europe would discountenance Roumania if she were to arouse a Continental war....

"I would willingly send the Crown Prince an extract from your letter, but I must tell you that he has at present no influence either on home or on foreign policy, the direction of which lies exclusively in the hands of the Chancellor.

"In this Eastern Question Germany only occupies the third place after Russia and Austria; but, when the decisive moment for weighing the respective interests of those two States arrives, you will find that Germany has reserved for herself the option of placing her weight on that side of the balance which seems most advantageous to the development of the German Empire...."

The projected reforms, which were to place Christians and Mohammedans on an equal footing—on paper—were published by the Sublime Porte in December, but failed to awaken much appreciation either abroad or at home, where the financial crisis assumed threatening proportions. The Sultan's mind was at this time apparently occupied chiefly by the idea that he had been bewitched, and by constant demands for money, regardless of the fact that his troops were dying by thousands from cold and hunger in Herzegowina, and that the salaries of all officials remained months in arrear.

In spite of the so-called entente of the Powers, a strong rivalry was noticeable between Russia and Austria, especially with regard to the eventual attitude of Roumania.

To Prince Charles Anthony, February 8th, 1876.

"The Austrian representative inquires what we shall do in the event of Russian troops occupying the country; the Russian sounds us to find out whether we repose any confidence in Austria-Hungary; but both adjure us not to act hastily. They desire peace, because they grudge each other the solution of the Eastern Question, and because neither is prepared for war. It cannot be denied that we are suffering from this indecision, and are exposed to every possible danger. So much is certain, that Russia is concentrating troops on the Moldavian frontier, and that General Ignatieff declared to the Turkish Ministers in the presence of my representative, Prince Jean Ghika, that his Government would seize the Danube Principalities as a pledge as soon as the Turks occupied Servia and Montenegro! It is, of course notorious that you cannot weigh every word of the Russian Ambassador in Constantinople in a goldsmith's scales; yet we must not ignore these heedless comments.... We are resolved to repel with armed force any occupation, no matter from which side it comes. We naturally cannot hold out against a Great Power, yet we shall be able to preserve our standing point without, as formerly, meeting the army of occupation as our saviours....

"Matters are not progressing favourably in Servia. The population of that portion of the East has fixed its eyes on Montenegro, which enjoys great authority amongst the Slavs, and great respect from the Turks. Prince Nicholas, with whom I am on the best terms, is treated with especial consideration and leniency by Russia and Austria, a thing which unfortunately cannot be said of the young Milan."

On April 6, 1876, Prince Milan sent his uncle, M. Catargiu, to inform Prince Charles that he had decided on war with Turkey, and hoped that Roumania would not remain content with the rÔle of a passive spectator, as it was to the interest of both countries to free themselves from the Turkish suzerainty. Prince Charles, however, did not abandon the strict reserve with which he had hitherto received similar communications.

The startling news of a deficit of 30,000,000 francs, at a time when the political situation rendered an increased expenditure on the army essential, led on April 11, 1876, to the fall of the Catargiu Ministry, which for five eventful and, on the whole, prosperous years had assisted Prince Charles in the consolidation of the Principalities. General Floresku was entrusted with the formation of the new Cabinet, which, as it included two other generals, was promptly dubbed the "Cabinet of Generals" by the Opposition Press. Strange to say, the life of this quasi-military government depended on the votes of the eight bishops, as the supporters of the Government disposed of thirty-seven, and the Opposition thirty-four votes in the Senate.

"The greatest excitement prevails here, and there are rumours of conspiracies and revolutions, which do not, however, daunt me. I go straight ahead and do my duty. My chief anxieties are the condition of our finances and the serious situation in the East.... Servia is in a state of great agitation, and is driving with all sails set towards war. I warned Prince Milan not to expose his throne and country to danger by a hasty step; but he declared that he could no longer master the current, and had to choose between a war and a revolution! Quite recently I called upon him to delay taking action, and informed him that he must not reckon on Roumania, which would observe the strictest neutrality. He received this exhortation in a very bad humour."

Yet another step towards the coming war was the outbreak of a revolution in Bulgaria, where a petition had been circulating for several weeks to induce the Sultan to convert that Vilayet into a constitutional kingdom. A manifesto was issued by the secret National Government of Bulgaria in Bucharest, calling all Bulgarians to arms, as the hour of their liberation had arrived. This manifesto was published broadcast throughout the Bulgarian Vilayet, and met with enthusiastic response everywhere.

In the meantime, the "Cabinet of Generals" was forced to resign owing to its inherent weakness, and a "Ministry of Conciliation," as Prince Charles termed it, was formed by M. Jepureanu on May 8, 1876.

Prince Charles welcomed the two Vice-Presidents of the Senate, Prince Jon Ghika and Demeter Sturdza, whom he had not seen for more than five years, with a few friendly words on the presentation of an address from the Senate on May 14. A few days later the Prince expressed his regret to M. Sturdza that he, whom he had always trusted, should have adopted during the past five years an anti-dynastic policy in personal opposition to the Sovereign. The Roumanian statesman replied that the only excuse he could offer was that he had misunderstood the Prince's motives, and thought that he had allowed himself to be induced by the views of one party to measures which would be of no benefit to the country.

From the German Crown Prince, May 22nd, 1876.

"Ever since your last letter reached my hands the rapt attention of Europe has been fixed on Stamboul and the seething Turkish provinces. This state of affairs reminds me of the time before 1864, when every conversation about the solution of the Schleswig-Holstein Question ended thus: 'Let us wish the Danish King long life, that the conflict may be delayed as long as possible.' But Frederick VII. died suddenly, and misfortune was at the doors. The situation to-day is the more favourable in that none of the Great Powers have any longing to fight, because, God knows, enough blood has been shed these last few years. So far as we Germans are concerned, the Eastern Question possesses no immediate interest for us: our only care is the protection of our countrymen, on whose account our iron-clad squadron is now manoeuvring."

A revolution in the palace at Constantinople resulted in the deposition of Abdul Aziz in favour of Murad V. on May 30, 1876; but, though the accession of the new Sovereign brought with it plenty of promises of reform, the situation remained as threatening as before. Almost every day fresh reports of unheard-of cruelties and massacres were received from Bulgaria, where bashi-bazouks were suppressing the insurrection with barbarous severity.

The attitude of England now engrossed the attention of Prince Charles, as the following extracts will show:

From Prince Charles Anthony, June 9th, 1876.

"The most noteworthy incident of the present day is the energetic awakening of England, which has suddenly assumed, so to speak, a position 'on guard,' and, relinquishing its passive attitude, is commencing an aggressive policy against Russia. Should this positive attitude of England secure the peace of the world, she will deserve the highest appreciation; but whether the future position of Roumania will be bettered by it is quite another question! The disclosure of the Russian aims, contained in Ignatieff's proposals (if, indeed, they are the least true), is very curious, and the gain to Roumania by its elevation to a kingdom is very problematical. The connection with the Porte is by no means as heavy a burden as the supremacy of Russia!"

To Prince Charles Anthony, June 24th, 1876.

"The situation in Constantinople remains unaltered by the change of rulers or the assassination[19] of the Ministers. The system of corruption is so deeply rooted in every branch of the Turkish administration that no Government will ever succeed in exterminating it. The proposed reforms are and will remain empty promises, which gain no credit either with Mohammedans or Christians. The insurrections will, therefore, even in the most favourable circumstances, continue to exist until the Ottoman Empire is shaken to its foundations, if it is not overthrown entirely. Smaller States will then arise, which will possess a more or less protracted vitality.

"England has at last gauged the situation correctly: Lord Derby's declaration in the Upper House, maintaining that the Treaty of Paris only guarantees the integrity of Turkey from attacks from abroad, but that none of the signatory Powers can intervene between the Porte and the Tributary States, is most significant. If all the Great Powers were to adopt this—the only correct point of view—the Oriental conflict would be localised, and we should thus avoid serious complications. The vassal States and the various Provinces must be allowed to break their horns. If they succeed in emerging victorious from the struggle with their suzerain, tant mieux! If not, they do not deserve to be independent countries.

"The Servians will not wait for the 'green-table' decisions of diplomacy: they will decide their fate themselves. Bulgaria is in a state of great agitation; revolutionary committees have been formed everywhere to incite the populace to throw off the Turkish yoke. We are saddled with the thankless task of impeding the communications of the committees here with those in Bulgaria, and with preventing the invasion of Turkey by armed bands. We had repeatedly to act with energy, and arrest the leaders with their troops; they were, of course, liberated in a couple of days, but their weapons were seized.

"... Servia is ready for war, and inquiring what will be the attitude of Roumania in the event of Turkish warships steaming up the Danube? The Servians, moreover, are not on the best of terms with Roumania owing to our strictly neutral attitude. Germany, on the other hand, is convinced that the Turks, in spite of the condition of their finances, are still capable of considerable military efforts, and will annihilate the Servians in a war; and she has, through the medium of her agent, congratulated the Roumanian Government on its attitude...."

The insurgents in Herzegowina proclaimed the Prince of Montenegro as their ruler, whilst the Bosnians placed themselves under Prince Milan, who now forwarded a quasi-ultimatum to the Porte, demanding the incorporation of Bosnia in the Principality of Servia under the suzerainty of Turkey. Roumania seized the opportunity of reminding the Sublime Porte of certain disputes which still remained unsettled, in spite of the loyalty shown by the Prince's Government to the conventions. The following seven points were then submitted to the Porte:

(1) The recognition of Roumania's individuality as a State.

(2) The addition of the Roumanian Agent to the Diplomatic Corps in Constantinople.

(3) The regulation of the position of Roumanians in Turkey, and the recognition of Roumanian consular jurisdiction over them.

(4) The recognition of the inviolability of Roumanian territory.

(5) The conclusion of extradition, commercial, and postal conventions between Turkey and Roumania.

(6) The recognition of Roumanian passports.

(7) The definition of the Roumanian frontier at the Delta of the Danube.

Servia declared war on June 30, 1876, followed a couple of days later by Montenegro. The Servian forces amounted to 56,000 men, concentrated on the line Alexinatz and Deligrad, whilst Prince Nicholas mustered 24,000 men, in addition to 4000 insurgents from Herzegowina. The Turkish force consisted of 97,000 men, divided into four columns, under Suleiman, Mehemed, Achmed and Osman Pachas, the commander-in-chief being Abdul Kerim. The fortune of war did not favour the Servian insurgents under the Russian General Tschernaiew, who were beaten near Babinaglawa on July 9, and eventually forced to fall back behind the Servian frontier. The Montenegrin troops, however, defeated Selim Pacha on the 16th and 17th July, and compelled Moukhtar Pacha to retire on Trebinje on the 29th. The course of the war showed that the Servians had completely over-estimated both their military spirit and their material resources for war, and they were only saved from annihilation by the intervention of the Powers on their behalf in obtaining an armistice for fourteen days, from September 16 to October 1.

In Roumania, in the meantime, a most inopportune attack was made on the late Conservative Government by the Radicals, who demanded a full inquiry into the causes of the deficit, and the prosecution of twelve former Ministers for the three following offences:

(1) Violation of the Constitution and public liberty.

(2) Extravagance in the expenditure of public money.

(3) Abuse of power when in office.

The debates in the Chambers proved conclusively that the Ministry was no longer able to stem the tide of party passion; and on M. Jepureanu handing in the resignation of the Cabinet on August 4, 1876, M. Bratianu was entrusted with the formation of the new Liberal Cabinet.

The reports of the Daily News about the "Bulgarian Horrors," confirmed by Mr. Baring's report, caused a complete revolution in the Turkophile sympathies of Great Britain. Mr. Baring stated that fifty-four Bulgarian villages had been burnt down, and about 10,000 people massacred; no less than 2500 corpses were counted in Batak alone. The English Secretary, however, pointed out that the Bulgarians had also committed intolerable outrages on the Mohammedan population, and took considerable pains to expose Russian intrigues in the Vilayet.

Yet another change of rulers took place in Constantinople on August 31, 1876, when Abdul Hamid succeeded his brother, who was no longer responsible for his actions. The new potentate wisely adopted many economies, and endeavoured successfully to gain popularity with the army.

The situation, however, became more and more serious, and a suggestion was received from St. Petersburg that the Roumanian Government should be sounded as to its attitude towards a Russo-Turkish war. An evasive answer was sent, to the effect that, whilst Roumania hoped for the continuance of peace, her sympathies were with the Bulgarians and all Christians who suffered under the Turkish rule; the Principalities would always value the friendship of Russia.

M. Cantacuzino, the Roumanian Agent in Russia, reported that influential circles in Russia were antagonistic to Roumania, because she had not taken up a decided attitude towards the present struggle. The whole of Russia, with the exception of the Czar himself, was intent on war. Prince Charles decided at once to send Bratianu and Col. Slaniceanu (Minister of War) to Livadia, where the Czar, the Czarewitch, Prince Gortchakoff, and the Minister of War, Miliutin, had assembled. On arrival at Livadia, M. Bratianu was immediately pounced upon by Count Ignatieff to explain to him the absolute necessity of an agreement regulating the passage of the Russian army through Roumania.

Prince Gortschakow also referred to this question, and suggested a non-political military convention between the two countries. Bratianu replied that no difficulties would ensue if the war met with the approval of the guaranteeing Powers, but that this consent must be clearly and definitely expressed. The Russian Chancellor met this opposition with the threat of treating Moldavia and Wallachia as integral parts of the Ottoman Empire, and therefore liable to invasion without further parley. Bratianu, by no means disconcerted, represented that Russia could hardly commence the liberation of the Turkish Christians by defeating a Christian army, and declared that the Roumanian forces would oppose the passage of the Prut by an invading force.

On parting, Prince Gortchakoff remarked: "We shall soon come to terms if war ensues; and Roumania can only gain by it!" To this Bratianu replied that a complete understanding would be in the interests of both States; and that he would willingly enter upon negotiations to that effect.

The opinions of the Roumanian Ministers were divided on this point; Bratianu considered an understanding with Russia to be the best policy, D. Sturdza advocated the strictest neutrality, whilst Jonesku, the Foreign Minister, urged close adherence to Great Britain.

From Prince Charles Anthony, October 16th, 1876.

"I heard to-day of the mobilisation of the Roumanian army and its concentration in Northern Moldavia! What is to be understood by that? Is the march of the Russians through the country to be opposed; or will Roumania side with Russia? All this is not clear to me! The pusillanimous policy of England has completely entangled the whole Turkish-Christian Question. Austria-Hungary is crippled by its dualism, the German Empire is shrouded in aristocratic silence, and only Russia perseveres with an iron persistence in her far-reaching aims."

In reply to an ultimatum presented by General Ignatieff, the Sublime Porte conceded an armistice of two months, commencing on November 1, to apply to the Servian and Montenegrin forces alike. Prince Milan's troops, under the command of Tschernaiew, had suffered defeat after defeat at the hands of the Turkish troops, and were again saved from annihilation only by the direct intervention of Russia.

From the German Crown Prince, November 18th.

"... I received the following from Prince Bismarck: 'The situation of the Prince is serious, although I am not convinced that Russia will proceed to war, if nobody endeavours to restrain her from doing so.

"'In the event of war, I do not think Prince Charles ought to resist the Russian proposals too seriously, nor throw himself into their arms. It would be best if he shielded himself behind his duty towards the Porte, and then yielded to force, which will probably be applied from the North long before Turkey assumes the offensive.

"'He must not allow himself to be led away by ambition, but must adhere to the treaties: his resources are not sufficient in the face of two such armies to secure him the respect of the victor, if he employs his forces. So long as he adheres to the treaties, he can always appeal to Europe. That will always be a claim, though not perhaps an indisputable one; still it will carry great weight should the Russian campaign prove unfortunate eventually. I offer my opinion here as if I were a Roumanian, and not a German Minister, solely on account of my personal interest for his Highness!'"

Six Russian Army Corps were mobilised and placed under the command of the Grand Duke Nicholas, as the Army of the South, on November 14, 1876. A circular note to the Powers assigned as the reason for this step the futility of all diplomatic efforts to protect the Christians of Turkey from the attacks of the Mohammedans. The Czar, though desirous of peace, had therefore mobilised a portion of his army, in order to obtain guarantees for the execution of the principles proposed by Europe.

M. de Nelidow arrived at Bucharest from Constantinople on November 28, to negotiate with the Roumanian Government about the passage of the Russian army, and the possible part which Roumania was to play in the war with Turkey. The presence of the Russian agent was naturally kept absolutely secret. Curiously enough, a Turkish agent, Ali Bey, arrived on the same day to arrange a combination with Roumania against Russia. Prince Charles declined to meet either of these messengers, and instructed his Ministers to adopt a reserved attitude, and to refer both to the Treaty of Paris.

Dem. Bratianu was sent to Constantinople in November to put the Roumanian demands before the Conference which had assembled there, and to endeavour to arrange a peaceful settlement. The Roumanian demands were: the recognition of their neutrality; the regulation of their attitude in the event of a war between Turkey and one of the Guaranteeing Powers; and the cession to Roumania of a part of the Delta of the Danube.

The efforts of the Conference to avoid the war came to a definite end on January 19, 1877, when the Turkish Government declined every proposal of the Conference as being opposed to the "integrity, independence, and dignity of the Empire."

To Prince Charles Anthony, January 20th, 1877.

"The hour of danger is approaching, and Roumania will shortly be the scene of great political and military events, which Europe will follow not without agitation. In any case our position will be difficult, as we shall be drawn into the complication whether we wish it or no. Politicians here are much more anxious about the result of a Russo-Turkish conflict and the future of Roumania than I am, as I have marked out my path from the beginning:[20] to conclude a military convention with Russia, and, if necessary, to fight with Russia against the Turks. It is true that opinion here is much divided on this subject, and that every effort is being made to separate us from Russia. There are Powers that demand that we should protest against the entry of the Russians, and that we should retire our army to Little Wallachia! You can imagine how I received such a suggestion! Andrassy, with whom I am on friendly terms, is acquainted with my views on this subject, and is not much edified by them. The conflict with the Porte which the Constitution has forced upon us was very welcome to me; Midhat is endeavouring to allay it by every means; but since we demand more to-day than he has the courage to give us, it is still an open question. The Turks are concentrating considerable forces in Bulgaria, and are arming the Danubian fortresses, which are in a miserable condition, with feverish haste; the heavy guns are being brought up from the arsenal at Constantinople and mounted in the forts, with much expenditure of trouble, labour and money. All sorts of rumours are spread abroad about the unsatisfactory condition of the Russian army, but my information shows that it is ready for action, and certainly equal to its opponent.... It is much to be regretted that Servia can take no part in the war; it is only with the greatest exertion that a corps of 15,000 men can be assembled, and they would assuredly show no enthusiasm."

From Prince Charles Anthony, January 22nd, 1877.

"On looking back over recent events the conviction is borne in upon me that the fear which the Russian Colossus inspires in Europe, coupled with the natural differences in the interests of the Powers, have been the causes of the pitiful end of the Congresses which started with such a flourish of trumpets. Had Europe been united and less timorous, it might have intervened and begun those Conferences at the time of the Servian War, instead of a whole year later. Turkey could hardly have resisted if a pressure of all the Powers had been applied at that time even without Russia, and she would have conceded more than she can now afford to do after her unquestionable successes in the Servian War and the complete change in her interior economy. So much is certain after a long and anxious period that the Conferences have resulted in a fiasco, and that this fiasco has materially raised and strengthened the morale and authority of the Porte.... Roumania will be most deeply affected by such a war, as the Russian base of operations can only be Roumania; there is no other at her disposal. Resistance to Russia is out of the question; you must therefore endeavour to reap the greatest possible benefits from this impossibility. The material advantages develop spontaneously, for the acquisition of money and the increased value of all country produce will assume enormous dimensions; the political benefits are, however, more difficult to formulate. The permission to march through Roumanian territory, and the establishment there of all that an army on an active footing requires, is already half a declaration of war from Roumania to Turkey. The latter, however, must recognise that Roumania cannot prevent the entry of two or three hundred thousand Russians; the only question that remains is whether Roumania will co-operate with the advance of the Russian army and cross the Danube. I should consider this most unwise, for in doing so Roumania will place herself between two stools. If the Turks preserve their proverbial powers of resistance, and so protract the war to an indefinite and costly length, we have no guarantee that the Russians would not conclude peace with the Turks in one way or another and abandon Roumania, who would then be overwhelmed by Turkish malevolence.

"It is more than probable that both sides will soon become exhausted in a localised war; the only question is, which of the two will give in first. Russia's eyes will always be fixed on her own interests, never on those of Roumania; and, since there is no such thing as gratitude in politics, I recommend you to exercise the utmost caution.

"Europe will not interest itself in a defeated and fallen Roumania—it will only have regard for a free country which is not tied down by treaties. Prudence and moderation are therefore necessary at so critical a period, which will either prove to be a wholesome era of transition for your country, or will bear the seeds of its annihilation."

The efforts of the Russian diplomats in Constantinople now appeared to be confined to delaying the advance of the Russian army until a more favourable season of the year should have arrived. Prince Charles Anthony thus sketched the possible results of the coming war in a letter to his son dated March 1, 1877:

"Russia will hardly gain great triumphs—a few military successes may be achieved, but certainly none of any political importance. The army and the Slav element must content themselves with a small modicum of glory, whilst the Czar Alexander may think himself lucky in returning to peaceful and normal circumstances, and in having mastered a movement which is of the greatest danger to Russia. The only tangible result of the whole Russian initiative will, perhaps, be that the suzerainty of the Porte over Roumania is transferred to Russia.

"Roumania would thereby be supported by a stronger and more stable Power, with, perhaps, more freedom at home and abroad, but would certainly not achieve her longed-for recognition as an independent and equal State.

"The forms of the suzerainty would perhaps be more equable and more pleasant, but the dependence, though tolerable, would always be felt.

"This would merely be an exchange of rÔles. Europe would then admire Russia's moderation, and would doubtless concede every demand made along the lines I have suggested. The sacrifice of Roumania would thus be a message of peace, on which would hinge the return to the universal entente."

A final attempt to settle the Eastern Question by means of the London Protocol met with as little success as the efforts of the Conference; and the Russo-Roumanian Convention was signed on April 16, 1877, by Baron Stuart on behalf of the Czar, and M. Cogalniceanu on behalf of Prince Charles. The following were the chief articles of the Convention:

(1) The Russian army to be granted a free passage through Roumania, the Russian Government paying all expenses connected therewith.

(2) The Government of the Czar pledges itself to maintain and protect the actual integrity and political rights of Roumania.

(3) The special regulations as to the march of the Russian troops to form the subject of a special treaty.

(4) The Roumanian Government to obtain the ratification required by the Constitution, and to proceed at once to the execution of the stipulations of the treaty.

The Turkish reinforcements of the forces at Rustchuk and Schumla caused the greatest excitement in Bucharest, indeed in the whole of Roumania. Public opinion, influenced perhaps by the recent failure of the Servian army in the field, declined to place any confidence in the military efficiency of the Roumanian troops. The incessant and exaggerated rumours of Turkish raids and passages of the Danube created something like a panic in the capital, and several over-anxious inhabitants quitted the country rather than run the risk of experiencing the horrors of a Turkish invasion. Prince Charles, however, had every trust and confidence in the ability of his army to prevent the Turks from crossing the Danube.