It is natural that the task of recounting the facts in the foregoing chapters should cause one's thoughts to turn to the future. The Empire has passed through a period of great danger, during which its every interest was threatened, and it has come successfully out of the ordeal, but to those upon whom the responsibility lay of initiating and directing the nation's policy the serious nature of the perils which faced us were frequently such as to justify the grave anxiety which sprang from full knowledge of events and their significance.

An international organization is in process of being brought into existence which, if it does not entirely prevent a recurrence of the horrors of the four and a half years of war, will, it is hoped, at least minimize the chances of the repetition of such an experience as that through which the world has so recently passed. But the League of Nations is still only a skeleton to be clothed with authority and supported by the public opinion of the world if it is to be a success. It is in its infancy, and so far the most optimistic have not advanced beyond hopes in its efficiency; and if the lessons of the past are correctly interpreted, as they were interpreted by our forefathers in their day, those upon whom responsibility lies in future years for the safety and prosperity of the Empire will see to it that, so far as lies in their power, whatever else may be left undone, the security of the sea communications of the Empire is ensured. Not one of us but must have realized during the war, if he did not realize it before, that the all-important thing upon which we must set our minds is the ability to use the sea communications of the far-flung Empire, which is only united by the seas so long as we can use them. But while governments may realize their duty in this matter, and set out with good intentions, it is, after all, upon the people who elect governments that the final responsibility lies, and therefore it is to them that it is so necessary to bring home in season and out of season the dangers that confront us if our sea communications are imperilled.

The danger which confronted the British peoples was never so great in any previous period as it was during the year 1917 when the submarine menace was at its height, and it may be hoped that the lessons to be learned from the history of those months will never be forgotten. The British Empire differs from any other nation or empire which has ever existed. Our sea communications are our very life-blood, and it is not greatly exaggerating the case to say that the safety of those communications is the one consideration of first-class importance. Upon a solid sense of their security depends not only our prosperity, but also the actual lives of a large proportion of the inhabitants. There is no other nation in the world which is situated as the people of these islands are situated; therefore there is no other nation to whom sea power is in the least degree as essential as it is to us. Four out of five of our loaves and most of our raw materials for manufacture must come to us by sea, and it is only by the sea that we can hold any commercial intercourse with the Dominions, Dependencies and Crown Colonies, which together make up what we call the Empire, with a population of 400,000,000 people.

What, then, are we to do in the future to ensure the safety of the communications between these islands and the rest of the Empire? As a matter of course we should be in a position to safeguard them against any possible form of attack from whatever quarter it may come. So far as can be seen there is no present likelihood of the transport of food or raw materials being effected in anything but vessels which move upon the surface of the sea. It is true that, as a result of the war, people's thoughts turn in the direction of transport, both of human beings and of merchandise, by air or under the water, but there is no possible chance, for at least a generation to come, of either of these methods of transport being able to compete commercially with transport in vessels sailing on the sea. Therefore the problem of guarding our communications resolves itself into one of securing the safety of vessels which move upon the surface of the sea, whatever may be the character of the attack.

I do not desire to enter into any discussion here as to the method by which these vessels can be protected, except to say that it is necessary for us to be in a position of superiority in all the weapons by which their safety may be endangered. At the present time there are two principal forms of attack: (1) by vessels which move on the surface, and (2) by vessels which move under water. A third danger—namely, one from the air—is also becoming of increasing importance. The war has shown us how to ensure safety against the first two forms of attack, and our duty as members of a great maritime Empire is to take steps to maintain effective forces for the purpose.

In order to carry out this duty it will be greatly to our advantage if the matter can be dealt with by all the constituent parts of the Empire. A recent tour of the greater part of the British Empire has shown me that the importance of sea power is very fully realized by the great majority of our kith and kin overseas, and that there is a strong desire on their part to co-operate in what is, after all, the concern of the whole Empire. It seems to me of the greatest possible importance that this matter of an Empire naval policy and an Empire naval organization should be settled at the earliest possible moment, and that it should be looked at from the broadest point of view.

I do not think that we in this country can claim to have taken into sufficient account the very natural views and the very natural ambitions which animate the peoples overseas. We have, in point of fact, looked at the whole question too locally, whilst we have been suggesting to the Dominions that they are inclined to make this error, and unless we depart from that attitude there is a possibility that we shall not reap the full benefit of the resources of the Empire, which are very great and are increasing. In war it is not only the material which counts, but the spirit of a people, and we must enlist the support, spontaneous and effective, of every section of the King's Dominions in the task of sea defence which lies before us, consulting fully and unreservedly the representatives of our kith and kin, and giving them the benefit of whatever instructed advice we, with ancient traditions and matured knowledge, may possess.

In framing our future naval policy it is obvious that we must be guided by what is being done abroad. We are bound to keep an absolutely safe margin of naval strength, and that margin must exist in all arms and in all classes of vessels. At the moment, and no doubt for some time to come, difficulties in regard to finance will exist, but it would seem to be nothing more than common sense to insist that the one service which is vital to our existence should be absolutely the last to suffer for need of money. During a period of the greatest financial pressure it may be necessary to economize somewhat in the construction of new ships, and in the upkeep of certain of our naval bases which the result of the war and consequent considerations of future strategy may suggest to be not of immediate importance, although even here it may well be necessary to develop other naval bases to meet changed conditions; but we cannot afford to fall behind in organization, in the testing and development of new ideas, or in the strength of our personnel or in its training. A well trained personnel and a carefully thought out organization cannot by any possibility be quickly extemporized.

It is the height of economic folly to stint experimental research, for it is in times of stress that the value of past experimental work is shown. In the matter of organization we must be certain that adequate means are taken to ensure that the different arms which must co-operate in war are trained to work together under peace conditions. A modern fleet consists of many units of different types—battleships, battle-cruisers, light cruisers, destroyers and submarines. Before I relinquished the command of the Grand Fleet, large sea-going submarines of high speed, vessels of the "K" class, had been built to accompany the surface vessels to sea. It is very essential that senior officers should have every opportunity of studying tactical schemes in which various classes of ships and kinds of weapons are employed. In considering the future of the Navy it is impossible to ignore aircraft. There are many important problems which the Navy and the Air Service ought to work out together. A fleet without aircraft will be a fleet without eyes, and aircraft will, moreover, be necessary, not only for reconnaissance work, but for gun-spotting, as well as, possibly, for submarine hunting. Air power is regarded by many officers of wide practical experience as an essential complement to sea power, whatever future the airship and aeroplane may have for independent action. A captain who is going to fight his ship successfully must have practised in time of peace with all the weapons he will employ in action, and he must have absolute control over all the elements constituting the fighting power of his ship. In a larger sense, the same may be said of an admiral in command of a fleet; divided control may mean disaster. The advent of aircraft has introduced new and, at present, only partially explored problems into naval warfare, and officers commanding naval forces will require frequent opportunities of studying them. They must be worked out with naval vessels and aircraft acting in close association. With the Air Service under separate control, financially as well as in an executive and administrative sense, is it certain that the Admiralty will be able to obtain machines and personnel in the necessary numbers to carry out all the experimental and training work that is essential for efficiency in action? Is it also beyond doubt that unity of command at sea, which is essential to victory, will be preserved? In view of all the possibilities which the future holds now that the airship and aeroplane have arrived, it is well that there should be no doubt on such matters, for inefficiency might in conceivable circumstances spell defeat.

Then there is the question of the personnel of the fleet. It would be most unwise to allow the strength of the trained personnel of the Navy to fall below the limit of reasonable safety, because it is upon that trained personnel that the success of the enormous expansions needed in war so largely depends. This was found during the late struggle, when the personnel was expanded from 150,000 to upwards of 400,000, throwing upon the pre-war nucleus a heavy responsibility in training, equipment and organizing. Without the backbone of a highly trained personnel of sufficient strength, developments in time of sudden emergency cannot possibly be effected. In the late war we suffered in this respect, and we should not forget the lesson.

In future wars, if any such should occur, trained personnel will be of even greater importance than it was in the Great War, because the advance of science increases constantly the importance of the highly trained individual, and if nothing else is certain it can surely be predicted that science will play an increasing part in warfare in the future. Only those officers and men who served afloat in the years immediately preceding the opening of hostilities know how great the struggle was to gain that high pitch of efficiency which the Navy had reached at the outbreak of war, and it was the devotion to duty of our magnificent pre-war personnel that went far to ensure our victory. It is essential that the Navy of the future should not be given a yet harder task than fell to the Navy of the past as a result of a policy of starving the personnel.

There is, perhaps, just one other point upon which I might touch in conclusion. I would venture to suggest to my countrymen that there should be a full realization of the fact that the Naval Service as a whole is a highly specialized profession. It is one in which the senior officers have passed the whole of their lives, and during their best years their thoughts are turned constantly in one direction—namely, how they can best fit the Navy and themselves for possible war. The country as a whole has probably but little idea of the great amount of technical knowledge that is demanded of the naval officer in these days. He must possess this knowledge in addition to the lessons derived from his study of war, and the naval officer is learning from the day that he enters the Service until the day that he leaves it.

The Navy, then, is a profession which is at least as highly specialized as that of a surgeon, an engineer, or a lawyer. Consequently, it would seem a matter of common sense that those who have not adopted the Navy as a profession should pay as much respect to the professional judgment of the naval officer as they would to that of the surgeon or the engineer or the lawyer, each in his own sphere. Governments are, of course, bound to be responsible for the policy of the country, and policy governs defence, but, both in peace and in war, I think it will be agreed that the work of governments in naval affairs should end at policy, and that the remainder should be left to the expert. That is the basis of real economy in association with efficiency, and victory in war goes to the nation which, under stress and strain, develops the highest efficiency in action.