  Mine Valuation (Continued).
It is desirable to state in some detail the theory of amortization before consideration of its application in mine valuation. As every mine has a limited life, the capital invested in it must be redeemed during the life of the mine. It is not sufficient that there be a bare profit over working costs. In this particular, mines differ wholly from many other types of investment, such as railways. In the latter, if proper appropriation is made for maintenance, the total income to the investor can be considered as interest or profit; but in mines, a portion of the annual income must be considered as a return of capital. Therefore, before the yield on a mine investment can be determined, a portion of the annual earnings must be set aside in such a manner that when the mine is exhausted the original investment will have been restored. If we consider the date due for the return of the capital as the time when the mine is exhausted, we may consider the annual instalments as payments before the due date, and they can be put out at compound interest until the time for restoration arrives. If they be invested in safe securities at the usual rate of about 4%, the addition of this amount of compound interest will assist in the repayment of the capital at the due date, so that the annual contributions to a sinking fund need not themselves aggregate the total capital to be restored, but may be smaller by the deficiency which will be made up by their interest earnings. Such a system of redemption of capital is called "Amortization." Obviously it is not sufficient for the mine investor that his capital shall have been restored, but there is required an excess earning over and above the necessities of this annual funding of There are many limitations to the introduction of such refinements as interest calculations in mine valuation. It is a subject not easy to discuss with finality, for not only is the term of years unknown, but, of more importance, there are many factors of a highly speculative order to be considered in valuing. It may be said that a certain life is known in any case from the profit in sight, and that in calculating this profit a deduction should be made from the gross profit for loss of interest on it pending recovery. This is true, but as mines are seldom dealt with on the basis of profit in sight alone, and as the purchase price includes usually some proportion for extension in depth, an unknown factor is introduced which outweighs the known quantities. Therefore the application of the culminative effect of interest accumulations is much dependent upon the sort of mine under consideration. In most cases of uncertain continuity in depth it introduces a mathematical refinement not warranted by the speculative elements. For instance, in a mine where the whole value is dependent upon extension of the deposit beyond openings, and where an expected return of at least 50% per annum is required to warrant the risk, such refinement would be absurd. On the other hand, in a Witwatersrand gold mine, in gold and tin gravels, or in massive copper mines such as Bingham and Lake Superior, where at least some sort of life can be approximated, it becomes a most vital element in valuation. In the practical conduct of mines or mining companies, sinking funds for amortization of capital are never established. In the vast majority of mines of the class under discussion, the ultimate duration of life is unknown, and therefore there is no basis upon which to formulate such a definite financial policy even were it desired. Were it possible to arrive at the annual sum to be set aside, the stockholders of the mining type would prefer to do their own reinvestment. The purpose of these calculations does not lie in the application of amortization to administrative finance. It is nevertheless one of the touchstones in the valuation of certain mines or mining investments. That is, by a sort of inversion such calculations can be made to serve as a means to expose the amount of risk,—to furnish a yardstick for measuring the amount of risk in the very speculations of extension in depth and price of metals which attach to a mine. Given the annual income being received, or expected, the problem can be formulated into the determination of how many years it must be continued in order to amortize the investment and pay a given rate of profit. A certain length of life is evident from the ore in sight, which may be called the life in sight. If the term of years required to redeem the capital and pay an interest upon it is greater than the life in sight, then this extended life must come from extension in depth, or ore from other direction, or increased price of metals. If we then take the volume and profit on the ore as disclosed we can calculate the number of feet the deposit must extend in depth, or additional tonnage The following tables and examples may be of assistance in these calculations. Table 1. To apply this table, the amount of annual income or dividend and the term of years it will last must be known or estimated factors. It is then possible to determine the present value of this annual income after providing for amortization and interest on the investment at various rates given, by multiplying the annual income by the factor set out. A simple illustration would be that of a mine earning a profit of $200,000 annually, and having a total of 1,000,000 tons in sight, yielding a profit of $2 a ton, or a total profit in sight of $2,000,000, thus recoverable in ten years. On a basis of a 7% return on the investment and amortization of capital (Table I), the factor is 6.52 x $200,000 = $1,304,000 as the present value of the gross profits exposed. That is, this sum of $1,304,000, if paid for the mine, would be repaid out of the profit in sight, together with 7% interest if the annual payments into sinking fund earn 4%.
Present Value of an Annual Dividend Over — Years at —% and Replacing Capital by Reinvestment of an Annual Sum at 4%.
TABLE II.Present Value of $1, or £1, payable in — Years, Interest taken at —%.
TABLE III.
Taking the last example and assuming that the mine is equipped, and that the price is $2,000,000, the yearly return on the price is 10%. If it is desired besides amortizing or redeeming the capital to secure a return of 7% on the investment, it will be seen by reference to the table that there will be required a life of 21.6 years. As the life visible in the ore in sight is ten years, then the extensions in depth must produce ore for 11.6 years longer—1,160,000 tons. If the ore-body is 1,000 feet long and 13 feet wide, it will furnish of gold ore 1,000 tons per foot of depth; hence the ore-body must extend 1,160 feet deeper to justify the price. Mines are seldom so simple a proposition as this example. There are usually probabilities of other ore; and in the case of base metal, then variability of price and other elements must be counted. However, once the extension in depth The example given can be expanded to indicate not only the importance of interest and redemption in the long extension in depth required, but a matter discussed from another point of view under "Ratio of Output." If the plant on this mine were doubled and the earnings increased to 20% ($400,000 per annum) (disregarding the reduction in working expenses that must follow expansion of equipment), it will be found that the life required to repay the purchase money,—$2,000,000,—and 7% interest upon it, is about 6.8 years. As at this increased rate of production there is in the ore in sight a life of five years, the extension in depth must be depended upon for 1.8 years, or only 360,000 tons,—that is, 360 feet of extension. Similarly, the present value of the ore in sight is $268,000 greater if the mine be given double the equipment, for thus the idle money locked in the ore is brought into the interest market at an earlier date. Against this increased profit must be weighed the increased cost of equipment. The value of low grade mines, especially, is very much a factor of the volume of output contemplated. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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