The great development of the southern part of the New World, extending from the Rio Grande to the Strait of Magellan, certain to take place as a result of the opening of the Panama Canal, spells opportunity for American commercial expansion. This vast territory, covering an area nearly three times as great as that of the United States, has a population of only 50,000,000. Its resources have been merely scratched on the surface. Its potentialities, acre for acre, are as great as those of the United States.

Porto Rico will serve for a criterion by which to measure the future possibilities of this Empire of the South. In Porto Rico one may see the benefits of the institution of a really good government, and the success which attends a proper effort to develop natural resources in tropical America. If American opportunities in all Latin America may be measured by American successes in that island, then, indeed, the future is rich with promise. During a single decade the external commerce of this little gem of the West Indies was more than quadrupled. It now amounts to some $80,000,000 a year, and only about 12 other countries in the world buy more goods from the American manufacturer.The expansion of internal business has kept pace with the growth of external commerce. In seven years taxable values increased from less than $90,000,000 to more than $160,000,000. In a single year the amount of life insurance written in the island nearly doubled, and fire insurance increased nearly half. The exportation of sugar increased fivefold in 10 years, and the exportation of cigars 14 times. The population of the island has increased by half under the beneficient policies of the United States, going up from 800,000 in 1898 to 1,200,000 in 1912. During a single year Porto Rico buys about $35,000,000 worth of goods from the United States, and ships practically the same amount to this country.

Should all Latin America prove as good a customer in proportion to area as Porto Rico, our trade with Latin America alone would be many fold greater than the entire foreign trade of the United States to-day. Should all Latin America, even with its present population, buy as liberally from the United States as Porto Rico does, we would sell annually to it nearly $2,000,000,000 worth of products.

The most necessary step in developing the potentialities of Latin America is to provide good and stable government. Commercial statistics show how prosperity flourishes where good government reigns, and of how poverty dwells where misgovernment exists. One may go to Porto Rico, to Jamaica, to Curacao, or to St. Thomas, and in each of these countries may behold the wholesome rule of northern Europeans and their descendants. The people have at least those substantial rights which are necessary to the peace, happiness, and well-being of humanity; and equally without exception trade statistics show a greater foreign trade, in proportion to area and population, than is enjoyed in any country where misrule prevails. Porto Rico could be buried in a single lake of Nicaragua; it is only one-fifty-seventh as large as Central America; and yet Porto Rico has a foreign trade greater than all the territory from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to the Isthmus of Panama.

How to improve governmental conditions in those countries where misrule prevails is a most serious problem. Had it not been for the Monroe doctrine it is safe to say that not one of the Republics of tropical America would be in existence today. Instead, their territory would be colonial possessions of the several powerful nations, and their people would be living under the comparatively wholesome rule of those nations. As it is, in a majority of the Republics south of the Rio Grande there is a state of affairs which makes against the development of resources and the best interests of the people. The whole theory under which these countries are governed is that primitive one: "Let him take who has the power, and let him keep who can." The result is that they are Republics only in name, and that the only way to change administrations is to have a revolution. Revolutions mean poverty; poverty means undeveloped resources, and so in some of these countries conditions were as bad in 1913, after nearly a century of so-called republican rule, as they were when the yoke of Spain was thrown off in 1821. How to bring about those conditions of peace and amity essential to national growth and development in these countries is the problem that has vexed more than one administration in Washington.

Some have answered that the best way to do it is to abrogate the Monroe doctrine and to let every Latin American tub stand on its own bottom, a proposal that might benefit these countries vastly, but which contains many possibilities of evil to the United States. Others have suggested that our experiment in Porto Rico offers the solution of the problem, at least so far as tropical North America is concerned. They assert that the end would justify the means, and that the planning of the same character of government in this territory that exists in Porto Rico today, would be the greatest godsend that the masses of the people of these countries could have. Still others have advocated a "hands-off" policy so far as the rule of these countries is concerned, allowing them to fight whenever, and in whatever way, they wish, but at the same time adhering rigidly to the Monroe doctrine against European interference.

Whatever the ultimate conclusion, it seems useless to hope for prosperity and expansion in countries whose industries constantly suffer from the galling blight of ever-recurring revolution. The great problem that lies before the American people, if the Latin America of the future is to become like the Anglo-Saxon America of today, is that of devising a policy which will insure conditions of peace and good will in the several sword-ruled countries south of the Rio Grande.As matters stand today in the majority of the countries of Latin America, although their Governments owe their very existence to the United States, there is a feeling of antipathy against Americans, which places the American exporter on an unequal footing with his European rival. There is a prejudice against Americans, partly the result of a widespread feeling that the United States is the great land-grabber of the Western world, but mostly the result of the attitude of a large number of Americans who go into these regions. For instance, for years one could not go about the streets of Mexico City without hearing some American berating the "blankety blank greasers," and asserting that the United States could take 5,000 men and capture Mexico City in a two-month campaign. It happens that the Mexican is a proud individual and naturally he bitterly resents such asseverations.

The same is true elsewhere, and by personal contact prejudice rather than a feeling of friendship has been aroused. The European usually goes into these countries because there are few opportunities at home. He is usually representative of the best citizenship of his homeland, and quite as much the gentleman in Latin America as at home. While there are a great many splendid types of American citizenship scattered throughout Latin America, a greater number of people have gone there because they could not get along in the United States, and their hostile attitude toward the natives excites by far more prejudice than the better class of Americans can counteract by sympathy and good feeling. Americans who visit these countries expressing contempt for everything they see, and everything the people do, are the greatest hindrances to the realization of the commercial opportunities which the United States possesses in Latin America.

If the manufacturers of the United States are to realize to the full the benefits which may be derived from the opening of the Panama Canal they will have to reform their methods of dealing with the Latin Americans. It is just as effective to send to buyers at home catalogs written in Greek or Sanscrit as to send to the majority of Latin Americans catalogs printed in English. In traveling through these countries, endeavoring to ascertain wherein Americans have failed in their efforts to get a proper share of their foreign trade, one hears on every hand the complaint that the American manufacturer seldom meets the conditions upon which their trade may be based. No satisfactory credits are given, and no effort is made to manufacture machinery fitted to their peculiar needs. Agricultural machinery, for instance, which may serve admirably in the United States, is wholly out of place in many of these countries; and yet the Latin American customer must either buy the surplus of these machines or go elsewhere for machinery built to answer his requirements.

The European traveling salesman in these countries carries a line of goods immediately answerable to local requirements. Furthermore, the European exporter understands that the system of credits in Latin America is not the same as prevails in Europe and the United States, and he complies with their requirements. Of course, his prices are placed high enough so that he is nothing out of pocket for the seeming concessions he had made. The result is that in traveling in these countries, one meets three or four foreign "drummers" where he meets one American traveling man, in spite of their nearness to the United States. It will take years, even with the Panama Canal in operation, to overcome the disadvantage which bad business policy has placed upon the American manufacturers.

If the opening of the Panama Canal spells new American commercial opportunities, it also develops a new field of international politics in which the United States must make itself the dominant factor, and in which it will have a transcendental interest. It will unquestionably give to the Monroe doctrine a new importance and render its maintenance a more urgent necessity than ever. Prior to this time the breaking down of the Monroe doctrine would have been greatly detrimental to the interests of the United States, but from this time forth the domination of the Caribbean by some other strong nation would likely prove most disastrous to American welfare. It might even lead to the loss of the canal itself, and we then would witness that great waterway transformed from a military asset of immeasureable benefit into a base of operations against us.

Probably the chief danger to which the Monroe doctrine is exposed is from those countries whose rulers profit most by its enforcement. While the United States can control its own affairs in such a way as not to bring into question this doctrine, it is not so certain that the rulers of some of the Latin American nations will always do as well. In fact, some of the countries have conducted their affairs in such a way as might have involved the United States in a war with a foreign power. The knowledge that a small tropical American republic might act so as to force the United States into a critical situation has resulted in a desire on the part of the responsible authorities at Washington to exercise over the Republics of the Caribbean such a guiding control as would serve to prevent them, through any ill-considered or irresponsible act, from exposing the United States to dangerous controversies with foreign nations.

For instance, here is a country which owes a large debt to British bondholders. It defaults on the interest for a period of years. Efforts to collect are futile. Finally it is decided by the President that he needs additional funds. He reaches an agreement with the representatives of the bondholders, by which they agree to refund the debt and to lend him an additional half a million dollars, upon the condition that he hypothecate the Government's export tax upon coffee to secure the amortization of the refunded debt. He does so. Matters move along quietly for a little while, but soon he needs additional funds. He negotiates with New York bankers, getting from them the funds he needs, and hypothecates with them the same coffee tax that he had hitherto hypothecated with the British bondholders. Of course, the British bondholders protest at this impairment of their securities. He laughs at their protest. England sends a warship to his ports. He appeals loudly to the United States for the maintenance of the Monroe doctrine; but the United States does not hear him, so he decides to treat the British bondholders fairly. If he had not done so, and England had been seeking to break down the Monroe doctrine, an ideal opportunity would have been afforded.

It is to prevent such situations as these that many Americans hope that the Government may devise some plan that will at once protect the United States from such menaces, and at the same time allow the people of these countries to work out their own destiny in their own way.

The situation in tropical America today, with a few exceptions, seems to be that the republics have the form of liberty without its substance, and the shadow of civilization without its realities. Some of them have had over fifty revolutions in as many years. Some of them have been in the grip of tyrants who were as heartless in exploiting their people as was Nero in ruling Rome. The masses have received nothing from the Government except oppression, and they live in that hopeless, heartless ignorance so well described by a Spanish writer, picturing conditions in Porto Rico before the American occupation. We know that this picture was a true one. It was drawn in 1897 and won the prize awarded by the Spanish Government at the centennial celebration of the retirement of the English from this island. After dilating upon the splendors and magnificence of Porto Rico, this artist of the pen said of the masses:"Only the laborer, the son of our fields, one of the most unfortunate beings in the world, with the pallid face, the bare foot, the fleshless body, the ragged clothing, and the feverish glance, strolls indifferently with the darkness of ignorance in his eyes. In the market he finds for food only the rotten salt fish or meat, cod fish covered with gangrenish splotches, and Indian rice; he that harvests the best coffee in the world, who aids in gathering into the granary the sweetest grain in nature, and drives to pasture the beautiful young meat animals, can not carry to his lips a single slice of meat because the municipal exactions place it beyond his means, almost doubling the price of infected cod fish; coffee becomes to him an article of luxury because of its high price, and he can use only sugar laden with molasses and impurities."

That picture applies to more than 90 per cent of the people in tropical America to-day. It explains why these countries, which might be made to flow with the milk and honey of a wondrous plenty, are poverty-stricken and unable to work out a satisfactory destiny for themselves. It shows why Cuba, Porto Rico, and Jamaica to-day are rich in internal trade, and prosperous in foreign commerce, while other countries are eking out a bare and scanty existence.

American commercial opportunities around the Mediterranean of the West, in particular, and in Latin America, in general, will reach their full when government there becomes government for the welfare of the people rather than for the aggrandizement of the ruling class.