At the close of the year 1845, when Peel had resigned office on account of the dissensions in his Cabinet on the question of the Corn Laws, Lord John Russell had in vain attempted to form a government. His failure had been due to the objections urged by Lord Grey to Palmerston’s return to the Foreign Office.[832] Peel had, in consequence, agreed to withdraw his resignation and to carry on the government. But it was soon clear that the Protectionists, if they could not prevent the passage of his Corn Bill, would certainly encompass his downfall at the first opportunity. Palmerston, under these circumstances, judged it advisable to take steps to remove the impression that his nomination as Foreign Secretary would create alarm in France and imperil “the cordial understanding.” He, accordingly, decided to visit Paris with the object of dispelling this idea. His intimate knowledge of the French language and his considerable powers of conversation, combined with the personal charm of Lady Palmerston, soon achieved the desired result. In the previous month of December, the prospect that “ce terrible Lord Palmerston” would be once again at the Foreign Office had spread dismay in ministerial circles. But, in the following spring, when he returned to England, after a few weeks’ stay in Paris, the amiable qualities and the friendly dispositions of “ce cher Lord Palmerston” were the chief topic of conversation in the political salons.[833]

Louis Philippe and his Foreign Minister had been most disagreeably surprised by the disclosure of the proposal made by Christina to the Duke of Saxe-Coburg. Lord Aberdeen’s straightforward conduct in the affair could not undo the fact that the Queen-Mother had deliberately, and without the knowledge of the French ambassador, opened a negotiation for the marriage of Isabella to a prince, who was not a descendant of Philip V. In pursuance of this policy the Duke of Sotomayor, the Spanish ambassador in London, had been instructed to inquire officially in what light the British government would regard the selection of a prince, who was not a Bourbon, as the future husband of the Queen. To this question Lord Aberdeen had replied that, “should it be found that no descendant of Philip V. could safely be chosen, consistently with the happiness of the Queen or with a due regard to the tranquillity of the country, it could be no cause of displeasure to Great Britain were a prince from some other family to be selected.” He could not believe that in such a case “the enlightened Court of the Tuileries” would interfere. “But, if contrary to all reason and probability, an attempt were made to control the wishes and feelings of the Queen and the clearly understood will of her people, Spain would not only receive the warmest sympathy of Great Britain but of all Europe.”[834]

M. Guizot appears to have been even more annoyed than Louis Philippe at Christina’s proposal to the Coburgs. He is said, indeed, to have attempted to persuade the King to counteract it, by demanding the hand of Isabella for his son Montpensier. But neither Louis Philippe nor the young Duke himself were prepared to resort to so extreme a measure. The King, for the present, was content to address acrimonious complaints to Christina,[835] and to instruct M. Bresson to make a strong representation to the Spanish ministers.[836] At the same time, both he and M. Guizot decided to take steps to effect a reconciliation between the Queen-Mother and General Narvaez, whose return to power they regarded as essential to the success of their plans. Meanwhile, Jarnac spoke of Palmerston, with whom he had had his first interview on July 14, as “fairly well intentioned and rather timid.” This description of his attitude, M. Guizot admitted, was most satisfactory. “Nevertheless, between him and me,” he pointed out to his royal master, “there can be nothing more than a marriage of reason.” He purposed, therefore, so to arrange matters that he might be enabled to communicate his views directly to Lord John Russell. “It will require nice handling to speak to one about foreign affairs without offending the other. But, on occasions, we may have to do so.”[837]

Bresson appears to have expressed himself strongly in favour of abandoning the Trapani marriage. In his opinion the matter resolved itself simply into choosing one of the sons of Don Francisco. Jarnac was, accordingly, instructed to propose to Lord Palmerston that these two princes should be the objects of the joint support of France and England. “London,” wrote M. Guizot to Louis Philippe, “will certainly favour Don Enrique, on account of his intimate connection with the Progressistas. . . . Evidently Cadiz would be the best selection for the Queen, Spain, and ourselves. Nevertheless, I do not think it advisable to propose him directly.”[838] Although Christina’s overture to the Duke of Saxe-Coburg at Lisbon had been made early in June, no answer had yet been returned to it. The prudent Coburgs would seem to have regarded it as inexpedient to incur the lasting enmity of Louis Philippe, for the sake of seeing a member of their family raised to the position of King-Consort of Spain. Upon his arrival in England, at the end of June, the Duke was strongly advised in this sense both by King Leopold and by Prince Albert. He, accordingly, resolved to reject Christina’s offer, on the ground of the injury which must result to Spain from a marriage contracted in opposition to the wishes of France.[839] This decision, however, would not appear to have been communicated directly to Louis Philippe. Nevertheless, the private letters, during the months of July and August, both of Bresson and Guizot, show plainly that they were aware that the Coburgs had no intention of entertaining the Queen-Mother’s proposal.[840]

Palmerston, whilst in opposition, appears to have known nothing of the details of the Spanish marriage question. Until informed of it by Aberdeen, with whom he had a long conversation in the first days of July, he was completely ignorant of Christina’s proposal to the Coburgs.[841] From 1834 to 1841, however, he had constantly been engaged in combating the Moderados, and, upon his return to office in 1846, he at once reverted to his former policy of favouring the Progressistas. Under these circumstances, the candidature of Don Enrique, whose connection with the extreme wing of the Liberal party had been the cause of his exile and disgrace, would naturally enlist his approval and support. Nevertheless, in his first communication to Mr. Bulwer, he expressed no preference for any particular candidate. Spanish affairs, he wrote in his famous despatch of July 19, appeared to be divided into two questions—the marriage of the Queen and the condition of the country. In respect to the first, he had nothing to add to those instructions with which Bulwer had been supplied by his predecessor in office. There were three candidates in the field—Prince Leopold of Coburg and the two sons of Don Francisco de Paula—and “Her Majesty’s government could only hope that the choice might fall upon the one most likely to secure the happiness of the Queen and promote the welfare of the Spanish nation.” The greater part of the despatch, however, was concerned with the second question—the political condition of the country. On that point, although Lord Palmerston had no particular instructions to give, he had some very severe criticisms to offer. “After a struggle of now thirty-four years’ duration for constitutional freedom, Spain,” he declared, “finds herself under a system of government almost as arbitrary in practice, whatever it may be in theory, as any which has existed in any former period of her history. She has indeed a Parliament, but all freedom for discussion has been overborne by force. . . . There is, indeed, by law liberty of the press, but that liberty has, by the arbitrary acts of the government, been reduced to the liberty of publishing what may be agreeable to the executive. . . . This system of violence seems, in some degree, to have survived the fall of its author[842] and not to have been as yet entirely abandoned by the more moderate men who have succeeded him in the government. . . . It was certainly not for the purpose of subjecting the Spanish nation to a grinding tyranny that Great Britain entered into the Quadruple Alliance and gave that active assistance, which contributed so materially to the expulsion of Don Carlos from Spain. . . .”[843]

This despatch was not to be communicated to the Spanish Minister for Foreign Affairs, but was intended to enable Mr. Bulwer to express, “to those persons who might have the power of remedying the existing evils,” the opinions of his government upon the state of the country. But, having sent it to Madrid, Palmerston, on July 20, confidentially informed M. de Jarnac of its contents and allowed him to be supplied with a copy of it. It is plain that he must have had some reason for thus communicating to the French chargÉ d’affaires a despatch, replete with sentiments which could not but be otherwise than very distasteful to his government. Without doubt, he must have known that Bulwer’s instructions would be at once passed on from Paris to Madrid, and it can only, therefore, be supposed that he wished the Spanish ministers to learn in this manner exactly what he thought about them. Perhaps, also, he was not sorry that M. Guizot should have an opportunity of realizing the very low estimation in which he held his political friends, the Moderados. To the marriage question he obviously attached little importance, and his remarks upon that subject were, doubtless, drawn up far less carefully than those which had reference to the actual condition of Spain.

Louis Philippe, at this time, was somewhat disturbed by a letter from M. Bresson to M. Guizot, dated July 12, in which the ambassador gave a lengthy account of his recent proceedings at Madrid. The Queen-Mother, he reported, urged various objections to the Duke of Cadiz. “Isabella,” she declared, “had an insurmountable aversion to him and she herself had grave doubts about his virility. This last statement,” wrote M. Bresson, “took us upon very delicate ground. She adverted to his voice, his hips, and his general bodily conformation, and I replied by insisting that his rigid morality was to be ascribed solely to his consuming passion for the Queen, her daughter. Furthermore, I pointed out, that his desire to marry was inconsistent with the idea that he was incapable of fulfilling the conditions of matrimony.” Christina’s opinion upon that point was probably little influenced by arguments such as these. But, when M. Bresson took upon himself to assure her that, “in any Bourbon combination” the marriage of the Duc de Montpensier with the Infanta could be announced simultaneously with that of the Queen, she received the information with “every appearance of sincere pleasure.” Rianzarez also expressed to him his satisfaction with this arrangement, which would remove the great political objection to the Queen’s marriage with Cadiz or, even, with Trapani. Bresson, however, was of opinion that her union with the former could be effected more easily and expeditiously than with the latter, and he, accordingly, suggested that his regiment should be brought to Madrid, in order that, “by constantly seeing him, Isabella might grow accustomed to his voice and hips.”[844]

The Queens, Louis Philippe declared at once, must be given to understand clearly that Bresson had no right to promise that the two marriages would be concluded simultaneously. He was not to be moved from this decision by Guizot’s insinuation that possibly the ambassador had not gone quite so far as His Majesty imagined. On the contrary, he replied, he had very little doubt that he had committed himself even more deeply than he admitted. It was while he was in this mood that Jarnac’s copy of Palmerston’s despatch of July 19 reached Paris. A perusal of its contents caused the King a considerable amount of annoyance,[845] yet it would not appear to have weakened his determination to insist upon the disavowal of M. Bresson.[846] But the question, as to how far the despatch of July 19 was responsible for the final decision of Louis Philippe, will be discussed later on.

Although in his official instructions he had expressed no preference for any particular candidate, Palmerston soon informed Bulwer, privately, that Don Enrique was the British candidate.[847] The selection of that prince called forth no objections from M. de Jarnac. On the contrary, as late as August 16, he gave Palmerston definitely to understand that, provided he would adhere to that arrangement, France would join with him in pressing it upon the Court of Madrid.[848] Bulwer, however, was filled with dismay on learning that he was expected to support the suit of Don Enrique. He had little fault to find with him personally. He considered him manly, enterprising and ambitious, and described him as resembling in many respects Prince Louis Napoleon.[849] There was one objection to him, however, and that was an insuperable one—nothing short of a successful revolution would induce Christina to accept him. “Let me caution your Lordship again and again,” he wrote on August 4, “against appearing to listen to the counsels of the Progressistas and Don Enrique, if you wish to retain the confidence of the palace.”[850]

No sooner was Palmerston installed at the Foreign Office, than Bulwer, reverting to his former scheme, began to plead earnestly in favour of the Coburg marriage. France, he maintained, in order to carry out successfully her plans of aggrandisement in Algeria, Morocco, Tunis and Egypt must exercise a paramount influence at Madrid. It followed, therefore, that all her ambitious designs would be checkmated by the Queen’s marriage outside the Bourbon line. “The policy of maintaining good relations with France,” he was not disposed to dispute it, “was a great and wise policy. But what would happen,” he asked, “were Louis Philippe to die? In that event would not the power of a great military nation fall into the hands of three or four enterprising young men, burning for glory in their several careers? The policy of good relations with France depended,”he much feared, “upon the life of a man of seventy-four and upon the well or the ill-directed aim of an assassin.”[851] The Coburg marriage, Christina assured him, could still be arranged. Let the management of the affair be entrusted to him and he would undertake to bring it to a successful conclusion. France would oppose it vigorously, and it must, therefore, be prepared in secrecy. Indeed, he acknowledged that his plan must needs “wear the aspect of an intrigue, in order to avoid the effects of an intrigue.”[852]

Palmerston, however, was not to be diverted from his intention by these arguments. The Court, the government, and the Coburgs themselves were alike agreed that Louis Philippe’s hostility to it had rendered the Spanish proposal unacceptable. On August 22, therefore, he addressed a lengthy despatch to Bulwer, in which he laid it down as the deliberate opinion of the British government that Don Enrique was the most suitable candidate.[853] But, before this communication could reach Madrid, the affair to which it referred had been definitely settled. The French government had not failed to turn its knowledge of Palmerston’s dispatch of July 19 to account. M. Bresson, in pursuance of M. Guizot’s[854] instructions, had been busily engaged in representing it as a declaration of hostility against the Moderado government in Madrid. NuÑoz, the brother of the Duke of Rianzarez, informed Mr. Bulwer that all hope of arranging the Coburg marriage had been abandoned, that Palmerston “would listen to no other alliance but that of Don Enrique, who is looked upon by the Court as an open adversary and a disguised rebel,” and that a Progressista insurrection was being prepared in London.[855] Only a week after he had transmitted this news, the British minister, on August 29, reported that the Queen, the night before at 12 o’clock, had made up her mind in favour of Don Francisco de Asis, Duke of Cadiz. Furthermore, he had to inform Lord Palmerston that the marriage of the Duc de Montpensier would take place at the same time. “I learn,” he wrote in conclusion, “that directly the Queen had signified her intention of marrying her cousin, Count Bresson formally asked the hand of the Infanta for the Duke of Montpensier, stating that he had powers to enter upon and conclude that affair.”[856]

M. Guizot, on September 1, communicated this news to Lord Normanby, the new British ambassador in Paris.[857] Palmerston, who was yachting with Her Majesty on the south coast of England, received the information of the conclusion of the double marriage in a letter from the Comte de Jarnac. Louis Philippe eluded the disagreeable task of apprising Queen Victoria that he had broken his compact, by allowing his own Queen, Marie AmÉlie, to convey the intelligence to her. The reply which she received was short and cold. “You will remember,” wrote Queen Victoria, “what passed between the King and myself at Eu. . . . You will, doubtless, have heard that, in order to be agreeable to your King, we declined to arrange the marriage of our cousin, Prince Leopold, with the Queen of Spain. . . . You will, therefore, easily understand that the sudden announcement of this double marriage could only cause us surprise and the keenest regret. . .”[858]

M. Guizot explained his conduct by referring to the Memorandum of February 27, 1846, of the existence of which Palmerston was now for the first time informed. In that document France had reserved to herself the right of departing from the agreement at Eu, should at any time a Coburg marriage appear “imminent or probable.” Palmerston’s inclusion of Prince Leopold among the available candidates in his despatch of July 19, combined with Christina’s overture at Lisbon, in the previous month of May, had created a situation, M. Guizot insisted, which released France from all her engagements. But, although he firmly maintained this contention and instructed M. de Jarnac to hold the same language in London, his conduct was not that of a man confident in the justice of his cause. Besides attempting to induce Lord Aberdeen to declare that, under the circumstances, a departure from the compact at Eu was permissible, he drew up a bitter attack upon Lord Palmerston and sent it to Jarnac with instructions to forward it to Lord John Russell. But in both cases he met with disappointment. Aberdeen told him frankly that he could not adopt his view of the case, and that he had no fault to find with the language or the conduct of his successor in office.[859] John Russell showed his letter to Palmerston, and informed M. de Jarnac that his colleague had his hearty approval and support.[860] Louis Philippe, meanwhile, had compiled a lengthy statement of his case and had sent it to his daughter, the Queen of the Belgians, in order that it might be placed before Queen Victoria. But neither his laboured attempts to extenuate his own conduct nor his insinuations about Lord Palmerston produced the desired effect. After a careful consideration of his letter, replied the Queen on September 27, she had failed to discover any reasons which could justify him in breaking his promise. She had arrived at this conclusion, she begged him to believe, “by the help of her own eyes,” not, as he had suggested, by the aid of those of Lord Palmerston.[861]

The protests of the Queen, however, were as ineffectual as the official remonstrances of Bulwer at Madrid and of Normanby in Paris. On October 10, 1846, the double marriage was duly solemnized at the palace, in the hall called “de Embajadores.” The British minister was not present at the ceremony, which was witnessed by a great crowd of persons. “One viva only was heard, and that not very loud, when the Infante Don Francisco descended from his carriage.”[862] Louis Philippe and M. Guizot had attained their object, but they had sacrificed “the cordial understanding.” In England, the authors of the Spanish marriages stood condemned by the Court, by the Cabinet, and by public opinion. There was no thought of an appeal to arms, but it was felt that in the future the relations of the two governments could no longer be carried on in the same spirit of close and friendly intimacy. Palmerston, founding his case upon the renunciation made at the Peace of Utrecht[863] by the Duc d’OrlÉans of that day, sought to induce the Powers to declare that any children, which might be born to the Duc de Montpensier and the Infanta, would be excluded from succeeding to the Spanish throne. Throughout Europe, however, there were ominous signs of a recrudescence of the revolutionary spirit, and Metternich, in consequence, had strong reasons for desiring to propitiate Louis Philippe and M. Guizot. He, therefore, refused to pronounce himself and simply adopted an attitude of neutrality, taking care to point out that the trouble could never have arisen, had the legitimist principle been upheld and had Don Carlos been enthroned. Russia and Prussia, which like Austria had never acknowledged the sovereignty of Isabella, followed the example of the Court of Vienna and declined to be drawn into the controversy.

Palmerston’s conduct was, unquestionably, ill-advised in thus attempting to apply to Spain, in the middle of the nineteenth century, the stipulations of diplomatic instruments framed when the conditions of Europe were very different. But, if his objections to the Infanta’s marriage, founded upon the Treaty of Utrecht, were unsuccessful, he was afforded the satisfaction of completely refuting the pleas set up by M. Guizot in justification of his actions. The argument which forms the main contention of his despatches, both of October 31, 1846 and of January 8, 1847, is unanswerable. The Memorandum of February 27, 1846, to which the French government attached so much importance was, he pointed out, unofficial and verbal. No record of it was to be found at the Foreign Office. M. de Jarnac had never mentioned it to him, “until after the event had happened for which it was now quoted as a justification.” But, “even admitting for the sake of argument that Her Majesty’s present government were to be held bound by it, how could it justify a departure from the engagement of Eu? The imminent danger, specified in that memorandum, was the likelihood that either the Queen or the Infanta should be about immediately to marry a foreign Prince, not being a descendant of Philip V. But if that likelihood had ever existed, it had at all events ceased to exist, when M. Bresson demanded the hand of the Infanta for the Duc de Montpensier. Not only had it then ceased to exist, but with respect to the Queen, whose marriage was then the immediate and only subject of discussion, it had been succeeded by an impossibility; because when Count Bresson demanded the hand of the Infanta the marriage of the Queen to the Infant Don Francisco had actually been resolved upon and settled.”[864]

Both in the French Chambers and in the British Parliament the Spanish marriages were the subject of debate, at the opening of the session of 1847. The publication of the English blue-book created a profound sensation in France.[865] After reading the correspondence, no one could any longer maintain that England had encouraged the candidature of Prince Leopold of Coburg, or that Louis Philippe had been justified in breaking the agreement of Eu. Nevertheless, in spite of the light which was thus thrown upon the proceedings which led up to the marriages, the true history of the case was only imperfectly revealed. Even to-day, the real motives which actuated some of the principal actors in the affair are still largely a matter of conjecture. Palmerston[866] himself believed, and his opinion has been adopted by the majority of English writers, that a secret understanding existed between Christina and Louis Philippe. The Queen-Mother’s overture to the Duke of Saxe-Coburg has been represented as a trap craftily laid for the British government. England, it was calculated, would never resist the temptation of actively supporting the candidature of Prince Leopold, and Louis Philippe would, in consequence, be furnished with a pretext for repudiating his promises.[867] But, plausible as this explanation of Christina’s conduct may sound, it cannot stand the test of a close examination.

Had the Queen-Mother never manifested any anxiety to marry her daughter to a Coburg, until she requested Bulwer to transmit her proposal to Lisbon, her proceedings, it must be admitted, would be open to grave suspicion. But the facts of the case are very different. On at least three previous occasions, when she cannot possibly have been acting in collusion with Louis Philippe, she had declared her predilection for the Coburg match. In 1838, during the civil war, she mentioned the matter to Lord Clarendon.[868] In 1841, after her abdication, when she was living in Paris, she sent Count Toreno to Lord Cowley to inform him that she regarded a Coburg Prince as the most suitable husband for Isabella.[869] No sooner was she back at Madrid, in 1844, than she expressed herself in the same spirit to Mr. Bulwer.[870] To the very last she appears to have struggled against the dictation of the King of the French. Finding that the Coburgs were fearful of incurring the wrath of the Court of the Tuileries, she did all in her power to persuade Louis Philippe not to insist upon her daughter’s marriage with a Bourbon, “who had none of the qualities calculated to make her happy.” As late as the middle of July, 1846, she sent the Marquis of Miraflores to Paris to plead her cause with him. But the “Citizen King” was inflexible. “Royal marriages,” he reminded her, “were not like of those of private individuals.”[871] Nevertheless, she still refused to yield, and when she at last gave way and compelled the unfortunate Isabella to marry the Duke of Cadiz, it was the ill-judged intervention of Lord Palmerston which was the cause of her surrender, not the expostulations and threats of Louis Philippe.

In Spain, in 1846, the victory of one party over another meant something more than that a particular set of politicians had been temporarily replaced in office by their opponents. Disgrace, exile and even loss of liberty were the fate which generally awaited the leaders of a defeated party. Christina herself, after the triumph of the Progressistas in 1836, had had to submit to the insolent dictation of a band of mutinous sergeants and had seen her Moderado ministers forced to fly from the country. Four years later the same party, in its hour of victory, had humiliated her as a woman and as a Queen and had driven her to resign the regency. She was not by nature vindictive, but she, doubtless, regarded a Progressista with feelings very similar to those which her father or her brother entertained for a Carbonaro. It may be imagined, therefore, with what dismay she read Palmerston’s despatch of July 19. In every line of it the intention of befriending her enemies was apparent. Palmerston, it was clear to her, was declaring that Don Enrique was the only suitable husband for Isabella, simply in order to promote the fortunes of the Progressistas.

Once convinced that the Moderado rÉgime was endangered by the hostility of Lord Palmerston, Christina determined to comply with Louis Philippe’s demands and thus obtain his protection. The Duke of Cadiz was hastily summoned to Madrid and Isabella was compelled to accept him for a husband. It is not absolutely certain whether the Queen-Mother insisted upon the simultaneous announcement of Montpensier’s marriage with her second daughter, or whether the proposal came from M. Bresson. It is highly probable, however, that she made it an indispensable condition to her acceptation of Cadiz. The fact that the Infanta was betrothed to a son of Louis Philippe would conciliate the French party and would be looked upon by people, generally, as some compensation for the extreme insignificance of the King Consort. Moreover, from her point of view there was another, and a far stronger reason, in favour of the simultaneous conclusion of the two marriages. Once the elder brother was the husband of the Queen, it would be very difficult to prevent the marriage of the younger, Don Enrique, with the Infanta.[872] That danger could be averted only by the announcement that she was betrothed to, and was shortly to marry, Montpensier.

Notwithstanding that he owed his crown to a popular revolution, Louis Philippe attached the highest importance to the natural alliances of the Bourbons. The maintenance of relations with Spain on the footing of consanguinity was, in consequence, the constant aim of his policy. In the pursuit of this object he found a ready instrument in his Foreign Minister. By upholding the principle that Isabella’s husband must be a descendant of Philip V., M. Guizot purposed to disprove the reproach of his opponents that this foreign policy was weak and subservient to England.[873] His motives are perfectly comprehensible. But the reasons which induced the King to break the compact of Eu, by consenting to allow his son’s marriage to take place at the same time as that of the Queen, have never been satisfactorily explained. Louis Philippe was very angry upon learning, on July 20, 1846, that M. Bresson, in order to overcome Christina’s repugnance to the Duke of Cadiz, had held out to her the inducement that Montpensier’s marriage with the Infanta might be concluded simultaneously. Turning a deaf ear to the timid remonstrances of M. Guizot, he insisted upon the necessity of acquainting the Queen-Mother that his ambassador had greatly exceeded his instructions. His private correspondence, discovered at the Tuileries after the Revolution of ’48, makes his sentiments upon that point absolutely clear.[874] Nevertheless, in the course of the next three weeks all his scruples vanished, and he allowed M. Bresson to be furnished with the powers necessary for the conclusion of the double marriage.

According to the official French version of the affair, it was the despatch of July 19 which caused the King to change his mind. Seeing that Palmerston had placed Coburg at the head of the list of candidates, he, rightly or wrongly, conceived that the danger, specified in the Memorandum of February 27, 1846, had become “probable and imminent,” and that he was, in consequence, released from all his engagements to England. But his secret correspondence with M. Guizot completely disproves this assertion. In forwarding, on July 24, the despatch to the King, Guizot himself made no suggestion of that nature. On the contrary, he expressed the extremely judicious opinion that Palmerston was very indifferent about Coburg and was rather trying to regain his influence over the Progressistas. Louis Philippe took the same view of the case. He was greatly annoyed at the strictures passed upon his friends, the Moderados, predicted that Palmerston’s proceedings would lead to the bouleversement of Spain, but “all that,” he wrote, “makes it the more necessary that our disavowal of the simultaneous marriage plan should reach Christina at once. The more we suspect bad faith in others the more must we be careful to keep our own hands clean.”[875] The letters published in the Revue retrospective show that he adhered to these admirable sentiments for some ten days longer. There is no document, however, or trustworthy evidence to explain why, probably about August 13 or 14, he suddenly decided to adopt a totally different view of the matter. Under these circumstances it is only possible to suggest the following explanation.

Louis Philippe in the question of the Spanish marriages had a twofold object in view. To his Bourbon policy was subjoined the bourgeois policy of the pÈre de famille, who was desirous of obtaining for his son the large fortune which was supposed to be the portion of the Infanta. Palmerston, however, was determined to prevent the accomplishment of this plan. To the well-known instructions transmitted to Bulwer, on August 22, was appended a despatch, marked separate and confidential, in which he laid down the principle that Montpensier’s marriage with the Infanta “would be as objectionable, and in some respects more so, than his marriage with the Queen.”[876] It is true that the contents of this despatch were unknown to Louis Philippe and his agents, and moreover, that before it reached Bulwer’s hands the affair had been concluded. But Guizot was, undoubtedly, aware of Palmerston’s opinions on the subject. Indeed, in a letter to the King, on August 8, he expressed the fear that, although Coburg might be abandoned so far as Isabella was concerned, Palmerston would probably attempt to marry him to the Infanta. “After our first battle,”he wrote, “we shall have to fight another, and a very sharp one.”[877] Louis Philippe himself, a few days later, appears to have been disturbed by a letter which his Queen had received from Christina. The tone of it he considered unpleasant, “and it contained no mention of Montpensier’s marriage.” . . . “Our situation,” he informed Guizot, “has, in consequence, much changed for the worse.”[878]

It is evident, therefore, that on August 12, Louis Philippe was aware that danger threatened his project of marrying his son to the Infanta from two quarters. Palmerston was resolved to oppose it, and the Queen-Mother, if not actually hostile to it, was showing some reluctance to support it. But in the course of the next day or two, news would probably be received from Madrid of the effect which the despatch of July 19 had had upon Christina and her ministers. Under these circumstances, a great effort was, doubtless, made to persuade the King to give Bresson a free hand. Guizot, Madame AdelaÏde,[879] and other members of his family assuredly represented to him that the present opportunity must not be allowed to escape. Christina was thoroughly frightened, and would be prepared to accept both Cadiz and Montpensier, provided only that the two marriages could take place simultaneously. Should there be either hesitation or delay, however, Palmerston would have time to mature his plans, and the Infanta and her fortune would be lost to them.

If the theory, here put forward, be correct, that it was Palmerston’s hostility to Montpensier’s projected marriage which caused Louis Philippe to break his promise to England, the question arises, whether, under the circumstances, he was not justified in regarding himself as released from his engagements. M. Thureau-Dangin[880] contends that the King, having undertaken at Eu to postpone his son’s marriage with the Infanta until the Queen should have children, had a right to expect that, in the interval, England should do nothing to facilitate her marriage with any other prince. Aberdeen, unquestionably, did not regard the matter in that light. He simply looked upon Montpensier’s marriage with the Infanta as delayed for several years, until, by the birth of heirs to Isabella, it should have lost its political significance. Even then, when it should be less objectionable, he did not consider that England was bound to consent to it, and, in the meantime, as he pointed out to Peel, “many things might happen.”[881] Palmerston most certainly would have repudiated the notion that the compact of Eu debarred him from recommending the alliance of the Infanta with Leopold of Coburg. “We can admit of no parity of position,” he told Jarnac, “between a son of the King of the French and the third son of a German nobleman as closely related to the French, as to the British, Royal Family.”[882] M. Guizot, in the Memorandum of February 27, undoubtedly declared that the Bourbon principle applied equally to the Queen and the Infanta, but he clearly had not much faith in his ability to make good that contention. He was perfectly aware of Palmerston’s sentiments with respect to Montpensier’s marriage, but he never attempted to argue that, because of them, the King was released from his promise. Throughout the controversy he confined himself to asserting, what he knew to be untrue, that Palmerston’s proceedings had rendered “probable and imminent” the alliance of a Coburg prince with Queen Isabella.

In most English accounts it is taken for granted that Louis Philippe selected the Duke of Cadiz as a husband for Isabella, in order to make certain that the succession to the Spanish throne should pass to the descendants of Montpensier. But the circumstances do not warrant this assumption. Count Trapani, whose physical fitness was never called into question, was always his favourite candidate. It was only in the last resort, when, owing to the unpopularity of the Neapolitan connection, he was forced to bring forward another Bourbon, that he fell back upon Cadiz. The suspicions which existed about the virility of this young prince did not deter the King from seeking to impose him upon Isabella. He cannot, however, be fairly charged with having expressly chosen him, because he believed him to be impotent. Don Enrique and the sons of Don Carlos being for different political reasons out of the question, he had no option but to renounce his Bourbon principle, or to insist upon the Queen’s marriage with the Duke of Cadiz.

The experience of England during the eighteenth century had taught her to look with dread upon the prospect of having to struggle single-handed against the two Bourbon Powers. The lesson of 1783 was never forgotten by her statesmen. Under the Restoration, when the absolute rule of Ferdinand VII. was re-established by French bayonets, Mr. Canning, to avert the dangers of a close alliance between the Courts of Madrid and of the Tuileries, acknowledged the revolted Spanish colonies and “called in the new world to redress the balance of the old.” Palmerston was confronted by a different situation. Spain was weaker, but France had acquired Algiers and was upon terms of suspicious friendliness with Mehemet Ali. In alliance with the Pasha of Egypt in the east and with Spain in the west, she might, it was to be feared, obtain a complete control of the Mediterranean. It was, therefore, Palmerston conceived, a matter of the first importance that her influence over the Cabinet of Madrid should be destroyed. This object, in his opinion, could never be successfully attained until Spain should be endowed with Liberal institutions, and should adopt a national, not a dynastic, policy. It was with this end in view that he entered into the Quadruple Treaty, by which England engaged to assist the Christinos to expel Don Carlos from the Peninsula. Without doubt, the idea upon which his policy was based was statesmanlike; nevertheless, the methods by which he hoped to accomplish his purpose were deplorably unsound. The treaty of 1834 involved interference in the domestic affairs of Spain, and that in combination with the very Power the ascendancy of which over the Spanish government it was his secret object to diminish.

Any military advantages which the Christinos may have derived from the Quadruple Treaty were more than counterbalanced by the harm, which the jealous interference of France and Great Britain in her internal affairs, inflicted upon Spain. Long after the Pretender had fled and outward peace had been restored, the political settlement of the country was retarded by the rivalry and intrigues of the ambassadors and ministers of the two Powers. The marriages of 1846, and all the evils which they brought in their train, were an outcome of the policy which Palmerston had inaugurated twelve years before. But he had not been in power during the whole of this period, and, when he returned to the Foreign Office, the marriage question was already far advanced. Aberdeen was not responsible for the Quadruple Treaty, and he was sincerely desirous of putting an end to the practice of meddling with internal politics, which both the French and British agents at Madrid had adopted. Nevertheless, his weakness and irresolution in dealing with M. Guizot were the cause of much mischief. Had he adhered to his first pronouncement that England would object to any alliance which threatened to disturb the balance of power, but that, with that exception, she looked upon the Royal marriages as an exclusively Spanish affair, none of the subsequent complications could have arisen. Unfortunately, however, after the downfall of Espartero, he undertook to observe a kind of benevolent neutrality towards the principle of the French government—that Isabella’s husband must be a Bourbon. The compact of Eu and the different interpretations which were placed upon it, the pretensions set up in the Memorandum of February 27, 1846, were the consequences of the modifications introduced into his original declaration.