The American attitude toward post-bellum problems is summed up in the four words cut into the tomb of General Grant. We prefer Grant’s “Let us have peace” to Foch’s “The war is not ended.” The British are even more eager than we to settle European affairs in such a way as to leave no open sores, no burden of long-term military responsibilities on the Continent. Four hundred million people have to live side by side, and, whatever the virtues and sins, certain European nations cannot indefinitely lord it over others, say the British. Those who have been wronged ought to be compensated, those who have been good ought to be rewarded, and those who have been bad ought to be punished; but practical common sense suggests limits to compensations, rewards, and punishments. After the Treaty of Versailles, Germany still has a population one and a half times that of France, and outcast Russia is the largest country of Europe in area, natural resources, and population. In London and Washington, and to a large extent The friends of France protest that their admiration and confidence have not been shaken by “What’s the matter with France?” is not an unjustified question, but we cannot answer it fairly unless we consider its corollary, “What’s the matter with ourselves?” Lest it be thought that I do not understand and sympathize with the exceeding difficulty of the French people and Government in shaping their post-bellum policies, it is wise to pause before going into the Ruhr with the French, and outline the fears of France and their justification. This will save us from becoming too pharisaical! We borrow a French word to express an idea for which the French themselves use another word. We speak of a person as being naÏve in his reasoning or attitude, but the French would say simpliste. Simplisme is the error in reasoning of neglecting elements of a problem that ought to be considered in arriving at a solution. Because we are self-centered sentimentalists, we Anglo-Saxons are simplistes. In building up briefs to justify our actions and to condemn the actions of others, we admit contingency only when contingent factors affect us and have influenced Not only because it is unfair and unchivalrous, but also because it is dangerous, we must avoid comfortable and comforting simplisme in our thinking about the European situation. It may be true that the unsheathed sword of France is disastrous to reconstruction and to the return of normal conditions, but does it follow that France is wrong in not having put back into the scabbard her sword? Could France have sheathed her sword before now? Can she afford to sheathe it as long as the United States remains aloof, with Britain tending to follow, from European affairs? If Europe is still under arms in the fifth year of “peace,” is the fault solely, or even primarily France’s? Or is Germany to blame? Or Poland? Can we look for the trouble in Bolshevism? Each of these questions opens up a field for speculation. By the mouths of our statesmen and the pens of our editorial writers we criticize and denounce and advise, but until we ask ourselves whether the attitude of France may not be due to what we have done and what we have left undone, we follow false leads. Winning the war came through pooling of resources. Will winning the peace come in any other way? Just as I have tried to show, in discussing the internal affairs of Germany since 1918, that the Government could probably have done no more than it has done in the matter of reparations, it is possible on the other side to show how the French Government has been compelled by public opinion to keep hounding Germany for money. The admission of a fixed indemnity in the treaty was not necessarily planned by the French to give them an indefinite strangle-hold upon Germany. At the time they may not have realized that the stipulation concerning the trial of war criminals, which Germany could not fulfil, and the disarmament clauses, which gave unlimited opportunity for quibble and dispute, together with the unpaid bills for reparations, would furnish a legal excuse for retaining the Rhine provinces and a technical ground for the further invasion of Germany. The weapons were at hand. Public opinion clamored for reparations. Briand was thrown out of power to make way for the more energetic PoincarÉ. Ought we not to give due weight to the popular outcry in France for reparations as a powerful factor forcing or tempting the French Government into its present policy? Great Britain and the United States have no budget deficits to face. We explain this by our Although it has been impressed upon them over and over again, British and Americans do not seem to understand that northern and northeastern France were industrial and mining regions, from which France derived most of her wealth; that these regions were ruined by fighting over them and by the German occupation; and that France still suffers not only from the loss of their normal revenue but also from the necessity of incorporating in the national budget enormous sums for reconstruction. Up to the end of 1922 the French Government had advanced from the Treasury, or guaranteed in principal and interest on bonds floated, the huge sum of 85,000,000,000 francs for reconstruction. Economists agree on two points: that Germany cannot pay what is demanded of her, and what she was compelled to agree to pay by the May ultimatum of 1921; and that the plan of making Germany pay according to her prosperity (that is, the tax on exports) will be worked out only if the creditors of Germany take over the governing of the country. The first point is not hard to understand. Payments abroad are made by favorable trade-balances. Gold marks are to be found by selling goods. How many gold marks Germany could The second point is more subtle. If we had no internal revenue inspectors, and no laws to compel individual men and corporations to show their books for inspection, American national honesty would not stand the strain put upon it. In France, on the same day the Ruhr invasion was approved on the ground of Germany’s bad faith and voluntary default, the reporter of the budget declared that the Government had failed to obtain income tax returns on 85 per cent of the earnings of the year 1922! To get the sixty million inhabitants of the German Empire working for a generation to pay their conquerors sums the amount of which depended upon their prosperity would require rigid control of public and private budgets down from Berlin to the smallest commune and corporation. For if we did not govern the Germans and tell them what they should and should not put into their budget for expenses, in a very short time we should find that they had no surplus. Operating expenses and “indispensable” public works would take all the money the Government could raise in taxes. Private enterprises The British have well grasped these two points. Not needing the indemnities as the French need them, not having that internal and political economic problem to face, the British have come to feel that reparations are not, after all, of prime importance. Insisting upon them, and furnishing practical means for their collection, would involve unwelcome German competition in world markets and the maintenance of a standing army in Germany. The game would not be worth the candle. And it meant more than indemnities for British prosperity to have Germany restored rapidly to economic health. The tone of the British press is unmistakable: Germany must pay, of course, but do not count upon our help in making her pay, and, above all, we must not pay for her! If American public opinion, now at ease because we are outside the European muddle, had any conception of what helping to collect the indemnity meant, our reactions would be the same as those of the British. France and Belgium have used force ostensibly to collect indemnities. As far as the French and Belgian people are concerned, whatever may be the ulterior motives of their governments, the armies are considered in the double rÔle of collectors If the Germans have proved that they are in earnest in carrying out the program of reparations payments they propose in order to get France out of the Ruhr, ought not the French to put their army immediately on a peace footing, cut down expenses, get back to work? We point to our own sensible example. Throughout the English-speaking world the minds of the people have been concentrated for several years now on the “return to normalcy.” We are suspicious of militarism, and our determination not to encourage France or any other nation in keeping things stirred up has much to do with our attitude toward interallied debts. But here, as in the indemnity question, we have considered the situation in terms of ourselves. We are not worried about Germany, because we There is a military party in France, of course, as there is in all countries; and one finds Bourbon and Prussian types of mind in high places. But in a country ruled as France is ruled, militarists, jingoes, and imperialists are able to shape policies only in so far as the great mass of the electorate finds itself in fundamental agreement with their fears and hopes. As long as French public opinion fears Germany, plans for reducing Germany to impotence will be listened to. As long as French public opinion believes that it is possible It is a mistake to think that the French are blind to fact and logic because of their hatred and fear of the Germans. One does not know French character who says that the French are trying to kill the goose and still hope for the golden egg. The French think things out, and they do not deceive themselves as we do. They know that they run the risk of killing the goose in trying to get the golden egg, but they need the egg so badly that they are willing to take the risk. And, after all, it is not a risk; for they think that it would be as advantageous to them to kill the goose as to have the egg. If one could persuade the French to forget their history from 1870 to 1918, to believe that their industries and mines put them in a position to compete on equal terms with Germany in world markets, that budget deficits did not need to be met, that the Lorraine frontier was as good a defense as the English Channel or the Atlantic Ocean, and that a nation of fewer than forty millions could raise as strong an army by a levÉe en masse as a nation of over sixty millions, we should find them as “reasonable” as ourselves. By being “reasonable” we mean trusting Providence that everything will work out well in the end. We tell France that the peace of the world cannot be definitely disturbed for the sake of satisfying the extreme demands of one nation. We express our belief that France’s apprehensions are exaggerated. We warn the French that indeterminate detention of the Rhine provinces will create a new Alsace-Lorraine and lead to another war. We repudiate the thesis of French nationalists, that the only safe frontier for their country is the Rhine. We wonder why there are no statesmen and publicists in France to oppose the propaganda of militarists, imperialists, and extremists. Such statesmen do exist. Briand, PainlevÉ, and Caillaux see France’s future in peaceful coÖperation with Germany. With rare exceptions French publicists are agreed that a Napoleonic In coping with this state of mind, British and American words must no longer be contradicted by British and American deeds. To meet the French argument of the Rhine as a strategic frontier, Great Britain and the United States signed a supplementary treaty on the day the Treaty of Versailles was signed, promising to aid France in case of a new German aggression. This treaty was not ratified. London and Washington alike, while assuring Paris that the thought of a new German aggression was absurd, were unwilling to commit themselves to aid France automatically in case of a German attack. Since we acted thus, had we the right to remonstrate with France when she took the steps that she thought were necessary to protect herself? If we were as sure ourselves as we tried to make France sure that Germany would not attack again, why did we not give France the guaranty? It would have cost us nothing, and, since we were sure that Germany was going to be good, it would not Before France and Belgium entered the Ruhr there were already signs of restlessness in Great Britain, Holland, Sweden, Switzerland, and Italy over the prolonged trade losses due to the failure to settle the reparations question. As revealed in speeches by Sir Eric Geddes and others who had always been friendly to France, a feeling has been growing that the unsheathed sword of France is preventing the restoration of peace and the economic rehabilitation of the whole world. However much we may sympathize with the provocation that finally made France enter the Ruhr, who does not believe that playing a lone hand against Germany and invoking the argument of superior force, if persisted in, will bring terrible retribution upon France? The military advantage is only temporary. Vital statistics of the two countries point to the inevitable superiority of Germany in the not distant future no matter what measures, desperate and far-reaching, France may have taken in 1923. Our attitude of constant criticism and advice, while carefully keeping ourselves free from assuming obligations, is as untenable in the Ruhr crisis as it was in the Near Eastern crisis. In |