Source.—Letter to Sir William Windham, Bolingbroke's Works, 1754. Vol. i., pp. 28-31.

The thunder had long grumbled in the air, and yet when the bolt [the Queen's death] fell, most of our party appeared as much surprised as if they had had no reason to expect it. There was a perfect calm and universal submission throughout the whole kingdom. The Chevalier indeed set out as if his design had been to gain the coast and to embark for Great Britain, and the Court of France made a merit to themselves of stopping him and obliging him to return. But this, to my certain knowledge, was a farce acted by concert, to keep up an opinion of his character, when all opinion of his cause seemed to be at an end. He owned this concert to me at Bar, on the occasion of my telling him that he would have found no party ready to receive him, and that the enterprise would have been to the last degree extravagant. He was at this time far from having any encouragement: no party, numerous enough to make the least disturbance, was formed in his favour. On the King's arrival the storm arose. The menaces of the Whigs, backed by some very rash declarations, by little circumstances of humor which frequently offend more than real injuries, and by the entire change of all the persons in employment, blew up the coals.

At first many of the tories had been made to entertain some faint hopes that they would be permitted to live in quiet. I have been assured that the King left Hanover in that resolution. Happy had it been for him and for us if he had continued in it; if the moderation of his temper had not been overborne by the violence of party, and his and the national interest sacrificed to the passions of a few. Others there were among the tories who had flattered themselves with much greater expectations than these, and who had depended, not on such imaginary favor and dangerous advancement as was offered them afterwards, but on real credit and substantial power under the new government. Such impressions on the minds of men had rendered the two houses of parliament, which were then sitting, as good courtiers to King George, as ever they had been to queen Anne. But all these hopes being at once and with violence extinguished, despair succeeded in their room.

Our party began soon to act like men delivered over to their passions, and unguided by any other principle; not like men fired by a just resentment and a reasonable ambition to a bold undertaking. They treated the government like men who were resolved not to live under it, and yet they took no one measure to support themselves against it. They expressed, without reserve or circumspection, an eagerness to join in any attempt against the establishment which they had received and confirmed, and which many of them had courted but a few weeks before: and yet in the midst of all this bravery, when the election of the new parliament came on, some of these very men acted with the coolness of those who are much better disposed to compound than to take arms.

The body of the tories being in this temper, it is not to be wondered at, if they heated one another and began apace to turn their eyes towards the pretender: and if those few, who had already engaged with him, applied themselves to improve the conjuncture and endeavour to lift a party for him.

I went, about a month after the queen's death, as soon as the seals were taken from me, into the country, and whilst I continued there, I felt the general disposition to jacobitism encrease daily among people of all ranks; among several who had been constantly distinguished by their aversion to that cause. But at my return to London in the month of February or March one thousand seven hundred and fifteen, a few weeks before I left England, I began for the first time in my whole life to perceive these general dispositions ripen into resolutions, and to observe some regular workings among many of our principal friends, which denoted a scheme of this kind. These workings, indeed, were very faint, for the persons concerned in carrying them on did not think it safe to speak too plainly to men who were, in truth, ill disposed to the government, because they neither found their account at present under it, nor had been managed with art enough to leave them hopes of finding it hereafter: but who at the same time had not the least affection for the pretender's person, nor any principle favorable to his interest.

This was the state of things when the new parliament, which his majesty had called, assembled. A great majority of the elections had gone in favour of the Whigs, to which the want of concert among the tories had contributed as much as the vigor of that party, and the influence of the new government. The whigs came to the opening of this parliament full of as much violence as could possess men who expected to make their court, to confirm themselves in power, and to gratify their resentments by the same measures. I have heard that it was a dispute among the ministers how far this spirit should be indulged, and that the king was determined, or confirmed in determination, to consent to the prosecutions, and to give the reins to the party by the representations that were made to him, that great difficulties would arise in the conduct of the session, if the court should appear inclined to check this spirit, and by Mr. W[alpole]'s undertaking to carry all the business successfully through the house of commons if they were at liberty. Such has often been the unhappy fate of our princes; a real necessity sometimes, and sometimes a seeming one, has forced them to compound with a part of the nation at the expense of the whole; and the success of their business for one year has been purchased at the price of public disorder for many. The conjecture I am speaking of forms a memorable instance of this truth. If milder measures had been pursued, certain it is, that the tories had never universally embraced jacobitism. The violence of the whigs forced them into the arms of the pretender. The court and the party seemed to vie with one another which should go the greatest lengths in severity: and the ministers, whose true interest it must at all times be to calm the minds of men, and who ought never to set the examples of extraordinary inquiries or extraordinary accusations, were upon this occasion the tribunes of the people.