ONE cannot help speculating upon the fascinating subject of aviation. Its progress during the past few years, the advancements of every day and the certainties near at hand lead us to wonder what kind of airship will sail down the invisible highways of the sky in the future. Danger incites rather than deters man from attempts to enter the seemingly forbidden field. Many years ago a philosopher remarked that if a train were advertised to make the run from New York to Philadelphia in twenty minutes, but that it could carry only fifty passengers, of whom one half were absolutely certain to be killed on every trip, not a seat would be vacant when the start was made.

On the last day of the year 1910, Arch Hoxsey at Los Angeles, and John B. Moisant at New Orleans, two of the most daring and successful aviators, plunged to death while giving an exhibition of their wonderful skill. This brought the death list for the year up to forty, and more than likely ere these lines are read the fatalities will be increased. None the less the development of the aeroplane will go on: With what result?

Well within the present decade aeroplanes will easily fly from the Atlantic to the Pacific; express and mail carriers will deliver quickly their packages to the corners of the earth; a speed of two hundred miles an hour will be attained, so that a man may take breakfast in New York and on the following morning do the same in London or Paris. An automatic stability device will render accidents well nigh impossible; aeroplanes will become as numerous and cheaper than automobiles; merchants and day toilers will have their domestic machines in which they will go to and return from their places of business; very soon the electric aeroplanes will be operated by wireless transmission of power, and will become active in war, both as scouts for the army and navy, and through their appalling power of destruction compel nations to remain at peace with one another.

No one is so well qualified to guess the near possibilities of aviation as those who have already been successful in that field.

“The air is the only element conquered by man,” said Glenn Curtiss, “in which the speed promises to be limitless. The improvements that are being made daily will bring a marvelous increase in swiftness of travel. I have no doubt that two hundred miles an hour will be as common as is one-fourth of that rate on our railways.

“This development will be wonderfully assisted by the army and navy. The aeroplane will be a decisive factor in warfare. Not only will it be invaluable for scouting purposes and for carrying messages back and forth, but it will be an awful engine of destruction. A fleet of aeroplanes could annihilate New York in a day. Soaring in the sky, safe beyond rifle or artillery range, it could sound the last trump for the proudest and most populous city in the world.

“Beyond scout duty I do not think the machines would be of much help to the navy, but when the battleships attack a fortified city, they could send aloft a score or more of aeroplanes which could blow all the forts to fragments with dynamite.”

It is the belief of Hubert Latham that both the monoplane and the biplane will exist in types of the airship of the future. He says that each embodies essentials that are lacking in the other and that are necessary for the proper navigation of the air.

“The aeroplane is perfected even more than people think,” said he. “I could fly practically to any place that a train can go and to many places that it cannot go. If a good prize were offered I should agree to cross from Los Angeles to New York. The airship of the future will be commercialized. It will practically do all of the express, mail and parcels post business. It will be the touring car par excellence for those who wish to see the world. It is being simplified and with an automatic stability device which I think is coming rapidly, it will be every man’s machine. They do not cost much and this will be greatly reduced during the next few years. It will make a better race of men and women when they fly. They will be healthier and will have a clearer idea of things as they are. I do not look forward to any great change in the type of machines and think the engine and the stability device will absorb the attention of the inventors and manufacturers of the future.”

As might be supposed, Eugene Ely, the first aviator who ever flew from a man-of-war, has decided ideas of the coming aeroplane. He does not believe the airship will be very effective in dropping bombs on warships, but no one can imagine its terrible power for destructiveness for armies and cities. Mr. Ely said:

“I can carry about 350 pounds of the highest explosive known to mankind at present. Imagine that I was successful in dropping this explosive on a warship of the enemy. What would happen? Nothing. But listen to this. In Hampton Roads we tried the experiment of placing 350 pounds of nitro-glycerine against the armored side of the turret of the Puritan. It was set off and it was discovered that not even the sighting mechanism of the turret had been injured. So you see that even if we were successful in hitting our mark we could do little damage. But imagine this great explosive dropped into the midst of a regiment of soldiers. They would be annihilated in a second. If it was dropped on the roof of a skyscraper in a city, what would happen? It would be demolished in a trice. So cities are at the mercy of an army equipped with aeroplanes, and the development will be along this line.”

“I have seen trials of wireless transmission of electricity and I firmly believe that the future will see aeroplanes operated by this wireless transmission of current, and then the greatest problem of all, the engine, will be solved. With electric motors we could attain a speed which sounds foolish. We could get a lifting power from the speed which would carry hundreds of pounds. The machines would be made smaller and if they had folding wings they would be no longer than the ordinary business man’s automobile. With these machines he could annihilate distance and a friend living a hundred miles away would be his next-door neighbor.

“The perfection of the flying machine will mean a greater rural population, as has the automobile. It will be possible and comfortable to live a hundred miles from the city and observe business hours there.”

P. O. Parmalee, who drove the Baby Wright Flyer at Los Angeles, is certain that the coming aeroplane will do all express, scouting, mail carrying and will even transport light freight.

“With my Wright machine I can take up 500 pounds beside myself, and go anywhere that I want to. If I double the engine capacity of my machine and double the wing space I can carry 2500 pounds, so I think that the future aeroplane will be a larger affair for commerce and a smaller one for pleasure and touring. There will probably be some sort of wing adjustment which will enable the flyer to start from the ground with a wide wing area, and after he has attained his height and speed to reduce gradually the wing area and make greater speed, and when he desires to alight extend his wing area to its limit and land easily.

“I predict that within a year a great deal of the government mail, parcels post and express matter will be carried to out-of-the-way places by aeroplane. Motors are being perfected every day, and steering and stability devices are becoming better, so that the everyday man can soon fly a machine as easily as he can steer an automobile. Speed will be a great factor in the aeroplane of the future. The Baby Wright, which was wrecked at Belmont Park, was the fastest thing that man ever flew in. It made ninety miles an hour and could do better. The matter of speed has been solved for the ordinary use of an aeroplane. It is to the lightning service required by mail contracts that attention is now directed.”

James Radley, the English aviator, is also optimistic of the future. He says that no one can foretell the astounding developments in aviation that are near at hand. He believes they will be along the lines now laid down, that is, the monoplane and biplane. “I can only guess,” said he, “the improvements that will come in motors and steering. The machines are able to accomplish much more than has been asked of them so far. I do not think folding wings will ever be used, since the trend is toward simplicity instead of complicated contrivances. Automatic stability will be attained and it will bring the solution of the greatest problem that confronts amateurs. Within three years aeroplanes will become as common as automobiles.”

An unexpected field for their use was brought to light at the aviation meet at Los Angeles in January, 1911, and was suggested by the great flight made by Eugene Ely to the United States cruiser Pennsylvania. This proved that hundreds of lives can be saved every year by the use of aeroplanes at life-saving stations or at government lighthouses. Multitudes have been lost because ships have been stranded on sandbars or rocks, where the inhabitants of towns had no way to get a line far out to them. An aeroplane could run ten or fifteen miles in a few minutes carrying a reel of cord from shore and the waves would be easily cheated of their prey.

As proof of this claim the case of the Czarina may be quoted. Early in 1910, that great ship went on the bar at Coos Bay, and forty-seven lives were lost. The air was calm and the sun shone out, but the enormous swell pounded several lighthouse boats to pieces and death won its appalling victory in the presence of thousands on the shore who were helpless to raise a hand to save them. A biplane could easily have gone out to the vessel, carrying cords which would have been the means of putting a breeches buoy into operation. Nautical men say that if the use of aeroplanes in lighthouses or life-saving stations is begun hundreds of lives will be saved every year.

Wilbur Wright, than whom no higher authority in aviation lives, thinks the world has grown too optimistic about the possibilities of travel by aeroplane. He said in Washington in January, 1911:

“It will be nearer two thousand years than two when we shall be able to fly from Washington to New York in an aeroplane in two hours. It is almost impossible to estimate the speed that can be attained by a flying machine. I would undertake to build a machine that could fly at the rate of a hundred miles an hour, but I would not want to operate it. Many years will elapse before the aeroplane will be used for transportation. It cannot supply the requirements that are furnished by railroads. Its greatest use lies in the field of sports and military operations. Flying through the air is a great sport and no more dangerous than automobiling.

“The tragic deaths of Hoxsey and Moisant, I presume, may retard the development of the aeroplane to some extent, but it will go forward. Public sentiment and laws will minimize the danger of the flying machine. These influences will check the recklessness of aviation.”

And now let us wait and see to what extent these prophecies will be fulfilled.

The End.