When a heavy mass of clouds suddenly rises in a clear sky, every one thinks that a terrific storm is to follow, displaying a great store of pent up forces. And many people "SIGNS OF THE TIMES." never make a single mistake in predicting from so ominous a summer sky what is going to take place. Some similar forecasting is now going on within the consciousness of the people. For nearly every one more or less clearly feels that he is heavily pressed upon by some portent in the national life. And every one whose mental horizon is clear enough and wide enough sees, beyond the outward appearance, that something dangerous is stored in the nation. It may be something so unusually great in its force, something so explosive, something so combustible, that with the new century it may terribly shake the world.

It was quite recently when the “North American” of Philadelphia asked the question, “What has the Nineteenth Century in store for Philadelphia?” And by its own admission the replies received were amazing. In summing them up, before spreading them at large before its readers, it said:

“Substantial business men, whose names are almost household words, solemnly affirm that with opinions of the new century will come revolution and bloodshed. Leading lawyers "OPINIONS OF BUSINESS MEN." say the tendency will be toward socialism. Bankers join with labor leaders in forecasting the triumph of the single-tax theory and the consequent overthrow of existing social conditions. That such a tremendous undercurrent of dissatisfaction and unrest exists in this city will undoubtedly come as a shock to thousands of conservative citizens. The opinions given are not those of labor agitators or anarchists. They are the careful expressions of men of wealth and of broad education. The revolutionary suggestions were not shouted upon the street in time of riot and excitement, but were given deliberately while the speakers sat in their well furnished offices, surrounded by comforts and evidences of prosperity.^[1]” So then the Nineteenth Century has stored up in the social organism of the nation enough material to produce revolution and bloodshed in the Twentieth Century.

And Mr. Louis Post says in “The Public” of Chicago: “Our leisurely friends of Philadelphia, who are to be envied, by the way, and not sneered at, for being philosophical enough and sensible enough to keep so much unwholesome hustle out of their lives—these slow and sober people must have been ‘startled’ by the above ‘revelations’ of the Philadelphia North American, that ancient landmark, now in its 128th year.^[2] It was undoubtedly an amazing surprise in view of its age that the answer of its readers was, as you see, ‘revolution and bloodshed.’

If similar questions were presented to the thinking public of the various cities of the United States, we might have thousands of like opinions and all of them would be conditioned by sufficient reasons.

One of the most prominent thinkers of the city of Chicago^[3] also quite recently said that “the Twentieth Century will bring to us the bloodiest revolution that human "OPINIONS OF LEARNED MEN." history ever witnessed.” And his assertion was not less amazing than was the affirmation of the substantial business men of Philadelphia. If it were honest and right to expose the names of men whose confidential conversations led to the same or similar assertions, I alone could make a long list of these names.

They all admit that the nation, as an organism, has long been diseased; its nerves have long been abnormally strained. But, like the friends of Philadelphia, they speak about revolution and bloodshed which is but the last and most convulsive stage of any nation’s serious disease. And it is true that, when this stage is reached, it is impossible to avoid the most intolerable operation.

But the amazing feature of such opinions is that different men agree in affirming that revolution and bloodshed is almost unavoidable; yet different men, as I know, "CAUSES OF UNREST." assign different causes for such an undesirable event.^[4] Some say it must come because the population increases and the unemployed laborers increase. Others say that the trusts, combinations, and monopolies must ruin the nation. Still others say that progress and poverty, being very rapid in their diverse directions, must rapidly bring the wealthy and the poor into the state of cut-throats against each other. And only very few men understand that all these causes are but secondary, though working to the same horrible end. While the real, effective cause for revolution and bloodshed, with the nation, is the exceedingly unequal distribution of wealth, and its rapid concentration in a very few hands.

It is this situation that our democratic people will not be able to endure, because they are born "PEOPLE THINK THEY ARE BORN FREE." free, whereas the storing up of wealth in a few hands makes them all economic slaves; deprives them of the privileges they enjoyed; makes them absolutely dependent upon the mercies of the rich, which, if shown to them, they may live; if withheld from them, they must starve to death.

Let us see, then, what it is that the Nineteenth Century has stored up, which is to result in such a terrific convulsion in the Twentieth Century.

The following diagrams present the Logical Premises from which the “revolution and bloodshed,” as a conclusion, must inevitably follow, provided their action is not checked.

“These diagrams showing by percentages the population and wealth distribution in the United States, according to tables compiled by George K. Holmes, U.S. Census Expert on Mortgage Statistics, are from the Encyclopedia of Social Reform.”

The contents of the above diagrams show on the bases of statistics that in 1890 three hundredths of one per cent of the population, "PERCENTAGES OF WEALTH AND PEOPLE." which are the millionaires, held 20 per cent of the nation’s wealth. Eight per cent and ninety-seven hundredths of one per cent of the population, which are the rich, held 51 per cent of the wealth. The middle class, consisting of 28 per cent of the population, held 20 per cent of the wealth. The lower class, consisting of 11 per cent of the population, held 4 per cent of the wealth. And the poor class, consisting of 52 per cent of the population, held but 5 per cent of the national wealth,^[6] as this table shows:

This illustrative table represents the exact value of the diagrams on p. 5. And nothing is more interesting in this table than the sad differences in the worth of the groups, and especially when their respective wealth is divided per every head. The right-hand column shows that there are 18,786 persons whose aggregate wealth, if divided equally among them, would give $691,867 to each man, woman, and child. And there are 32,563,644 persons^[7] in the last group, whose wealth, if equally divided among them, can give but $99 to every person. These two groups present the greatest possible extremes of group-poverty and group-opulence.

The other three groups, as their averages clearly show, are intermediary between the two extremes. "PER CAPITA WEALTH." And if all the wealth of the nation were equally divided among its population, we could have $1,036 to every man, woman, and child. This per capita wealth indicates that the nation is very rich on the whole, but its riches, as you see, belong to a very few persons.

What then is the difference between a rich man and a poor man, between a rich woman and a poor woman?

If the 32,563,644 men, women and children had $100 per capita wealth, then one rich man of the first group of the above table, would be worth more "WORTH OF MEN." than 6,918 men of the last group of the same table. A rich man’s horse often worth more than 10, 20, 30, or even more, poor men taken together. A rich woman’s finger alone worth more than 10 or 20 poor women taken together, because that finger is often embellished with the diamond rings that cost thousands of dollars. A complete ladies’ dress or a costume often amounts to more than $5,000, and hence it is worth more than 40 or 50 women taken together with their dresses. Such are the differences between the rich and the poor people when they are valued by the dollar.

But the dollar differences cause a great many other differences between the rich and the poor. The poor man is not only poor in wealth, but he is poorer still in social "POOR IN SOCIAL RIGHTS." rights and privileges. And there is no possibility for the poor to rise up out of his poverty. For he has no resources of wealth which the rich people have; and he has no property of his own; for if he is worth but $99, which is really his house-scarb,^[8] he has no productive property at all; he is then absolutely dependent upon the mercy of the wealthy, without which he cannot exist even for six months. He cannot acquire higher education and training, because he is encompassed with poverty which furnishes no means for the education that helps men to acquire wealth. Hence, the lack of education keeps the poor in poverty; and this poverty prevents him from getting the helpful education. So that, poverty and ignorance become the bitter enemies of the above millions of individuals in the modern world of progress. Yet the modern poor have a far more potent enemy than poverty and ignorance combined, which we shall see later on.

Meanwhile, we will say here, that the rich are the masters over the poor in the sphere of law, in the sphere of politics, in the club, in the theater, in the church, at home "DOMINANCY OF THE RICH." and abroad—everywhere; as if all power were given unto them under the heavens over the poor. And how many church-ministers would not give them the same power and the best places in the hereafter? For the very character of sermons in our days depends upon the pleasures of the rich in many churches, because the ministers depend upon the wealthy few more than they depend on the millions of the poor. While all these poor are the rich men’s economic slaves, spending half of their labor energy in favor of the wealthy. That is what the Nineteenth Century has provided for the nation.

But the above statistical conclusions were by many regarded as “roseate” and “extremely moderate conclusions.” And it was in consequence of this that Dr. Spahr "CONCLUSIONS ARE MODERATE." was obliged to reiterate the expression: “Since the completion of this study, a volume has appeared that must set at rest all question as to the extreme moderation of the estimates reached.”^[9] For it was clear that every new investigation of the distribution of wealth confirmed the fact of a more and more rapid concentration of the national wealth in fewer hands than before. And it is the question of poverty, that spreads like contagion, that the American people have now to deal with, in view of a phenomenal increase of the national wealth which concentrates in the few hands. And it is this question that cannot be set at rest while millions grow poorer and poorer and the propertyless increase in numbers, as we shall soon see.

The people cannot set this question at rest until they know the truth of the different statistical tables, indicating the nation’s situation and destiny. And we cannot rest until we make a series of propositions for the purpose of producing more equal distribution of wealth in this country. And even then we cannot rest, until our propositions be applied to the irrational life of the nation, with the purpose of working out justice for the people. When we see all this in their actual life, then we shall rest, as the people shall be regaining their freedom, their property, their resources of income, their rights to work and to enjoy the fruits of their toil. The intelligent people cannot and must not rest before they reach a resting place. They cannot always be deceived by the shallow and selfish arguments which prove that the national wealth increases enormously,—for it so increases only with the few and rapidly decreases with the entire people. But the time will come when the tens of millions will no longer vote for men who deprive them of all rights, self-respect and liberty.

As we shall see later on, the 32,563,644 persons "UTENSILS AS WEALTH." of the last group of the table I possessed no real wealth at all even at the census in 1890. For though the diagrams represent them as having had $99 worth of wealth to every head, yet this wealth was personal and not productive.

STATISTICAL CONCLUSIONS OF MR. SHEARMAN.

“An estimate of the distribution of wealth in the United States was made by Mr. Thomas G. Shearman "RESEARCHES OF MR. SHEARMAN." in the ‘Forum’ for 1889, and for January, 1891. It was based on careful estimates of the wealth of the very wealthy, a list of which he gave, and estimates of the division of the remaining wealth of the country between the middle class and the poor based on assessors’ returns.”^[10]

“Mr. Shearman came to the conclusion that 1.4 per cent of the population own 70 per cent of the wealth; 9.2 per cent of the population own 12 per cent of the wealth; and 89.4 per cent of the population own only 18 per cent of the wealth.”^[11]

In these conclusions, we have a still greater twist of facts by wrong handling. Now, to illustrate these conclusions as they stand by another set of diagrams, they will be as follows:

These diagrams indicate by percentages the exact conclusions of Mr. Shearman in respect to the population and the wealth distribution in this country. The author "LOOSE AVERAGES." of these conclusions obviously put too much salt of his own into his averages; for, by parceling out the wealth of a number of the well-to-do and rich people, he succeeded in persuading his readers, that, in America, the body of tens of millions of propertyless people, the paupers and the tramps, do not possess, on an average, less than $200 worth of wealth for each person, including women and children of all ages. Whereas, in reality, the wealth from which he made the fictitious averages, belongs to a very few persons of the nation. While an astonishing majority of the people, as we shall see, have no rights whatever to this wealth.

Let us again illustrate the conclusions in a tabular way for the sake of definiteness:

The first glance at this table and a glance at the table on page 6 show the reader that Mr. Shearman divided the population into three groups; and Mr. Holmes divided it "LINES OF DIVISION OF THE PEOPLE." into five groups. The bases of division are economic in both tables; but the lines of division are very different with the one statistical authority and the other. If we examine these lines, we shall find that Mr. Holmes’ fifth group consists of over 32½ million persons who, taken together, had been worth a little over 3 billion dollars; so that, each person of the group could have about $99 worth of wealth, as the average of table I shows. The next higher group of the same author, which comprises nearly 7 million persons, had, on an average, more wealth to each person, than each person could have in the fifth group, hence the per capita wealth of the fourth group of people was $377. While the group still higher up in wealth, which consists of little over 17½ million persons, and which had over 13 billion dollars’ worth of wealth, could have $741 to every head, that is, if this wealth were equally divided among them. The second group of Mr. Holmes’ division consists of over 5½ million persons, among whom the poorest ones had, probably not less than $5,000 worth of wealth, as their average worth of over $59,000 shows. Such a division of the population into five economic groups, if every family is rightly and honestly valued, presents an immense amount of truth to the public judgment.^[13]

But what Mr. Shearman really did with his estimates and conclusions is this: Seeing that the extent of poverty is appalling, he made the division line in the group of "SWEEPING AVERAGE." well-to-do people; he thus made the group of the very poor extend so far as to comprise nearly 56 million persons; and then, by dividing the wealth of the well-to-do persons among all these millions, he obtained an average of $209 worth of wealth to every pauper, to every tramp, to every man, woman and child,—who have had no wealth, and have had no rights whatever to the wealth they are nominally represented as entitled to.

Consequently, his distribution of wealth among the third group of people is merely on paper, is nominal, is showy, and it does not correspond to reality with reference "ONLY NOMINAL DISTRIBUTION." to more than 35 million persons as represented in Mr. Holmes’ distribution of this wealth. Mr. Shearman might as well follow the example of Mr. Carroll D. Wright^[14] and, by a single effort in calculation, divide among all individuals the 70 per cent of wealth that belongs to his 1.4 per cent of the people. In doing that, he might apportion more than $1,000 worth of it to "JESUITS AND GALILEO." every penniless individual, and then might say, Why, we are all rich, we are the most civilized and righteous people in the world! But such an effort, and such an assertion, however, would not at all alter the real situation; no more than Galileo, when in view of the danger of death, signing the Jesuit verdict in favor of the non-revolution of our planet round the sun, could thereby stop the actual revolution of the earth; for the earth’s progressive motion went on, in spite of the ardent desire and policy of the Jesuits to make it stand still by a verdict. Nothing but an indescribable shock of the earth against another heavenly body can change its principles of motion.

The same is true of the nation. Once the principle of concentration of wealth is left unimpeded in its action, it must work out its end; "DANGER." it must of living necessity produce revolution and bloodshed. And neither the extremely moderate statisticians, nor the false averages, of even of the meanest falsehood, can prevent its action toward such a horrible result. “You remember the French revolution?” "FRENCH REVOLUTION, ROME." asked Hon. Jno. S. Crosby of his audience in Binghamton,^[15] N.Y., and then he said: “In France all the lands had come into the hands of a few people, the king and nobles, and a majority of the people were depending on them for a living. The time came when these down-trodden people rose up and Paris streets ran with blood. Your country will have the same experience if you keep on fooling with the laws of God.

“Rome was once the mistress of the whole world. She lorded it over the other countries. But she fell, and Pliny, her historian, lays the cause of her downfall to land monopoly.”^[16] And so it was with ancient Egypt; so it was with ancient Assyria, and so it was with the Byzantine Empire, those great and powerful nations that perished for similar misconduct in relation to themselves.

Exactly so, this young nation also irrationally strides in the way of Rome. The concentration of her wealth in a few hands is now more rapid than it was before the last "RUSH OF THE NATION." census. That census brought about astonishing conclusions, yet the nation rushes as fast as she can to her ruin. And who can locate the weight of responsibility for her end? Every one seems to think about his selfish interests. Consequently, nothing has been done in the past to evade the ruin; nothing but the greatest national harm is being done in the present; and no fundamental "LOGICAL PREMISES FOR THE YEAR OF...." measure, no rational remedy, no serious means appear for delaying it in the future. While the Logical Premises^[17] for revolution and bloodshed have been established in the nation’s life, and their forces have been working to that inexorable end.

Now we are ready to present another conclusion that the statisticians of 1890 reached. It deals with the numbers of families, leaving out the individual inhabitants.

We have been assured that the U.S. nation in 1890 consisted of 12,690,152 families, and that each family, on an average, consisted of little less than 5 members, namely: 4.93 members.^[18] The distribution of the national wealth among families, therefore, was expressed as follows:

“Less than half the families in America are propertyless; nevertheless, seven-eighths of the families "HALF THE NATION." hold but one-eighth of the national wealth,” and vice versa. “While one per cent of the families hold more (wealth) than the remaining ninety-nine,” says Dr. C. B. Spahr.^[19]

At last we have struck in these conclusions a piece of more serious reality. “Less than half the families in the United States are propertyless.” Here you are! “Less than half.” "CONCLUSIONS OF REALITY." Yet even here, we are far from the fulness of truth. It seems as if the statisticians themselves were afraid to reveal the full truth to the people. And there are many intelligent persons who believe that the pure and complete truth should be known only to God Omniscient, while His creatures must be content to know but particles of truth mixed with falsehood.

As long, however, as the U.S. nation remains a democratic nation, and as long as responsibility for its prosperity or distress and disaster "RESPONSIBILITY OF THE PEOPLE." rests upon a majority of its people, this people ought to know not particles, but the whole truth of the conditions of their existence. Otherwise the least possible minority of the sharks in human form or the wolves in sheep’s skin, may devour or ruin the greatest bulk of the people.

Let us then illustrate here one of the above conclusions, while leaving the two others for later discussion.

“Seven-eighths of the families hold but one-eighth of the national wealth,” and vice versa, as the diagrams on the following page indicate, where the 12,690,152 families represent 62,622,250 individuals as in the preceding diagrams.

These diagrams represent exactly the truth of the conclusion: “Seven-eighths of the families of this nation held but one-eighth of the national wealth;^[20] or seven-eighths of the nation’s wealth was held by but one-eighth of the families.

The table on the next page illustrates some of the details of the above conclusion.

The upper division of that table presents the distribution of wealth among the families, where the two “per family” averages indicate "FAMILIES." a difference in the worth of more than 11-million families that held $732 each, and the worth of little over 1½-million families that held $35,875 each. So that, each family of the latter group was worth as much as 49 families of the former. While the general average of $5,125 shows that, if the national wealth had been equally distributed among all families, every one of them would have had this average amount as its own.

The lower division of the table represents the same amounts of national wealth, the same population, only individually considered; and both the wealth and the population "INDIVIDUALS." were divided into eight parts each, in order to carry out the proportions between numbers of the individuals and the wealth they possessed. The result in this division is that 7,827,782 individuals have had an average wealth of $7,269 each man, woman and child, and 54,794,468 individuals had but $148 worth of wealth to every head.^[21] The difference between the worth of one person of the one group, and one person of the other group, is $7,121 in favor of the rich person. And that, again, one person of the wealthy class, on an average, is worth more than 49 persons of the poor class.

But the most astounding fact is that we have over 54½-million inhabitants of this poverty-stricken class, and we have only a "NUMBERS NEAREST TO THE TRUE ONES." little more than 7½-million inhabitants of the wealth-swollen class. So that, these 54½-million individuals appear to be totally dependent upon the mercies and motions of 7½-million persons who are steadily growing richer and decreasing in numbers, while the poor are growing poorer and rapidly increasing in numbers. For such has been the growth of economic slavery that the above millions have to combat with.

Besides all this, we have seen the statistical conclusion that, “Less than half the families in America are propertyless,” which certainly "THE PROPERTYLESS FAMILIES APPEAR LITTLE BETTER OFF." means, that these propertyless families must be found included among the 54-millions of the poor. So that the present average wealth of these millions, which is $148 per every head, was made of the wealth of the upper classes, which average was not at all possessed by the poor. The economic conditions of the poor must be still worse than Table III represents them. But we shall find this out in the next chapter; while the conclusion that, “1 per cent of the families hold more wealth than the remaining 99 per cent of them,” nearly corresponds with the conclusion of Mr. Shearman, as represented on pp. 12 and 13.