by

Ian C. T. Nisbet

Massachusetts Audubon Society
Lincoln, Massachusetts 01773

This is not going to be a straightforward summary of the conference because it is my view that a number of important topics have not been addressed. In particular, what was supposed to be the main theme of the conference—the need for conservation of marine birds of northern North America—has been taken for granted by many speakers and has been treated by others in what may be a misleadingly brief way. So instead of simply summarizing the information that has been presented in the papers, I want to give my own views about how we should use this information to make a case for the conservation of marine birds. I feel strongly that we can make a good case for conserving them, and that we know enough to start doing so. The task of making a case for conservation and of proposing priorities for action has been left to me as the conference summarizer.

Particularly in the first half of this conference, we heard a long series of accounts of the birds of the area which stressed our ignorance—large amounts of information that was not known and large amounts of research that needed to be done. Now, I have an unexpected advantage over most of these speakers in that I have very little direct experience in the area. What I learned from their papers, not having any very clear picture of the islands, the birds, their habits, or the food that they eat, is that we already know quite a lot about the marine birds of northern North America. We certainly know enough to decide what we ought to do next and how to take the basic steps in conserving them.

After listening to the presentations, reading the abstracts, and studying the maps posted in the conference hall, I drew up a list of 10 points that I will first list and then elaborate on.

• We know that we are discussing a very important biological resource which has been neglected for a long time.

• We know roughly what this resource consists of and which aspects of it are biologically important.

• We know why this resource is in its present condition, and we know something about the ways in which it is related to other resources.

• We know a certain number of things that the birds do which make them vulnerable to changes in the environment.

• We know that the resource has already been disturbed in the past, both by human-induced and by natural changes, and we know that it has already been damaged.

• We can identify at least some of the major threats that the resource will face in the next few years.

• We know that the resource can be conserved, at least to a modest and partial extent.

• We have a fairly good idea of what we ought to do now to start conserving the resource.

• We have some ideas—so far rather rough and ill-formulated—about why we should conserve the resource.

• We know—or so I believe—that it is practicable and economically feasible to conserve the resource.

I am sure that there will be some disagreements with some of these assertions, especially with the last two, so I will give reasons why I believe that we should conserve these birds and that we can afford to do so.

Magnitude and Importance of the Resource

The papers in the first half of the conference which reviewed the abundance and distribution of the birds in the northern North Pacific Ocean, the Bering Sea, and adjacent seas suggested that we are dealing with numbers of birds of the order of 100 million. That is 100 million birds at sea plus some unknown number of millions of birds along the shore. We do not have to take these numbers literally—I am sure that the persons who produced them did not mean them to be taken literally—but certainly we are talking about something on the order of tens of millions and not much more than some hundreds of millions. At least, it is on the order of a hundred million rather than ten million or a billion. I do not think it an exaggeration to say that this is one of the great neglected biological resources of the world.

Characteristics of the Resource

Three important aspects of this resource have not been identified clearly in the papers delivered at the conference, in part because the papers summarizing the biological surveys did not include much of the detail that was available in the maps posted in the conference hall. [Maps in this volume do not show the detail of those posted.] These are the numerical abundance of the birds, their diversity, and their unique characteristics.

As to abundance, figures have been mentioned on the order of 50 million for shearwaters (Puffinus spp.) and 25 million for murres (Uria spp.). For other species the quoted numbers have been less specific, but I would estimate from what I have read and heard that the total population must run into millions for eiders (Somateria spp.), kittiwakes (Rissea brevirostris), and fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis), and doubtless for other species. The numbers of the smaller alcids, in particular, must be very great.

As to diversity, there is an impressive number of species and a wide variety of habitats. We have been shown in the photographs some spectacular island colonies, particularly in the Bering Sea and the Aleutian Islands, some of which have a remarkable variety of species. Several different definitions of "seabird" have been used at this conference, but certainly there are dozens, and probably scores, of genuine marine species that either breed in the area or use it as a major nonbreeding area. The collection of birds in the area of the North Pacific and the Bering seas seems more impressive in terms of both abundance and diversity than anything in the north Atlantic Ocean, which has been so much more fully studied.

As to the uniqueness, there has been almost no mention of the endemic species at the conference. It is therefore important to emphasize in this summary that a significant group of marine or coastal birds is endemic to this area. These birds include the red-legged kittiwake (Rissa spp.), the Aleutian tern (Sterna aleutica), the spectacled eider (Somateria fischeri), the emperor goose (Philacte canagica), and the red-faced cormorant (Phalacrocorax urile); a number of alcids, including the whiskered (Aethia pygmaea), parakeet (Cyclorrhynchus psittacula), crested (A. cristatella), and least auklets (A. pusilla); the horned puffin (Fratercula corniculata); and Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris). In addition, we should not forget some migrants that make exclusive use of this area in their nonbreeding season. These include the short-tailed albatross (Diomedea albatrus), the scaled petrel (Pterodroma inexpectata), and I believe also Cook's petrel (P. cookii), which has not previously been mentioned. From the little we know about its off-season distribution, the short-tailed albatross appears to use these waters exclusively; hence it has as much claim to be regarded as an endangered species of the United States as the whooping crane (Grus americana).

Perusal of the lists of species presented at the conference brings out one important point. Although we are meeting in the United States and have been looking at the birds from a United States-Canadian viewpoint, this is truly an international resource in almost every respect that I have mentioned. The most abundant species, in terms of both numbers and biomass, is probably the short-tailed shearwater, a migrant from the southern hemisphere. The rarest species, and the most endangered, is the short-tailed albatross, which breeds only on one island in Japan. There are migrants in large numbers from Chile, Australia, New Zealand, and especially the Soviet Union. All of these use the area of ocean and shallow sea that we have been considering as a major area for a substantial part of their annual cycle.

What more do we need to know about the extent of this resource? In my opinion we should not place high priority on determining the exact numbers of the birds—whether there are 25 million or 26 million murres, for example. It would be difficult, if not impossible, to determine such numbers in the kind of geographical and climatic area we are considering. Moreover, even if we were to measure the populations with great accuracy and to determine in a few years that they had changed by 10%, we would not be able to draw any conclusions about the reasons for the change or what should be done about it.

To set priorities for further exploration, I think it is more important to survey in greater detail the general distribution of the breeding colonies. So far, we know the location of only the largest colonies; we know almost nothing about the colonies of a mere 10,000 pairs or less. So I think future surveys should concentrate on locating the medium-sized colonies and getting some impression of roughly how many smaller colonies there are. It is important to locate and be sure that we know of all the major colonies that have a considerable number of species; these large, diverse colonies should be given priority for conservation. Most important of all, we need to locate and survey the endemic species with some precision. This need is especially great for the species that we suspect are limited to small areas or that may otherwise be particularly vulnerable.

If we are to measure population changes over the next few decades, it is of course essential to have a good base-line survey. However, I do not think it is either practicable or desirable to try to inventory the entire population of breeding seabirds with great accuracy. A more realistic and worthwhile program would be to select some sample colonies and to catalogue these sample areas in some detail, preferably with a photographic record, so that they can be resurveyed in later years to determine whether substantial population changes have taken place. Criteria for selection of sample colonies for inclusion in this base-line survey should include not only numerical size and species diversity but also ease of access, ease of observation, and the practicability of obtaining good photographic records.

Ecology and Functioning of the Resource

In the opening session of this conference, several speakers reviewed our general knowledge of the ecology of seabirds; others summarized our specific knowledge of the birds of the North Pacific, Bering, and adjacent seas, and their relation to physical and biological factors in the environment. There is no need to summarize these reviews again here except to point out that information on the relation between the birds and the marine environment is being generated very rapidly. We are beginning to understand the factors that control the breeding distribution of the individual species, their foraging strategies, and their dispersion at sea, at least in summer. However, it is clear from what has been said at this conference that we know much less about their ecology and distribution in winter. This lack of information is important because conflicting opinions have been expressed as to whether factors operating in the winter range or at the breeding colonies are more critical in limiting population size.

It is evident from what was said in the opening session that the distribution of the birds is very closely related to the distribution of marine resources. It is clearly no accident that the distribution of large numbers of many species of birds coincides with that of the major fisheries. Similarly, it is no accident that there is a relation between the distribution of birds and the extent of the continental shelf. These coincidences, which reflect the fundamental dependence of both birds and fish upon marine productivity, set the stage for existing and further conflicts between conservation of the birds and human exploitation of other resources of the area.

Perhaps the most significant gap in our knowledge of North Pacific seabirds is in the area of productivity and demography. As far as I can judge, we know almost nothing about the breeding success of these birds, their post-fledging survival, their longevity, their age at first breeding, the age structure of their populations, the fluctuations in their breeding performance, or their survival from year to year. For most species, we lack even the most basic life history and life table information.

If we can argue by analogy from studies made in other parts of the world, including the North Atlantic, we can make some basic generalizations that we would expect to apply to the birds of our area. We know that as a class seabirds have some peculiar characteristics which make them difficult to manage and cause some of the problems we have in conserving them. In general, they are long-lived and breed slowly, most lay small clutches, and the historical experience is that they take a very long time to recover from depletion of population. Many have an irregular breeding performance; some have long series of bad years interspersed with occasional years of good breeding success. Many seabird populations have traditionally fluctuated, as exemplified by those of the North Atlantic, whose fluctuations were described by W. H. Drury and W. R. P. Bourne.

Some species of seabirds are conservative, staying in the same colonies for many years or generations. Others are volatile, dispersing freely from one site to another and forming new colonies in an unpredictable way. Seabirds exhibit a wide range of ecological adaptations; some are highly specialized, others are highly generalized and adaptable. These differences can be very important when their environment changes, as D. N. Nettleship's film "Puffins, predators, and pirates" graphically illustrated.

As M. T. Myres pointed out on the 1st day of the conference, seabird populations exhibit both short-and long-term fluctuations. Long-term fluctuations are those that take place over times comparable to the generation time of the species, which may be many years or even decades for some seabirds. By surveying populations and measuring changes in them, we usually obtain information only about long-term population trends, reflecting long-term changes in the environment. Short-term perturbations in the environment are usually not reflected quickly by changes in total population—certainly not by changes that we can measure with the accuracy of our present-day census techniques. Many of the man-made changes we are concerned about are short-term. To identify their effects we should look not for changes in total population but rather for changes in biological parameters, such as the first-year survival rate or the number of young raised. I therefore suggest that some of the most critical parameters to be measured are changes in age structure of populations. We should therefore select as biological monitors species that can readily be aged—for example, gulls, which have a sequence of distinguishable immature plumages.

In specifying gaps in our knowledge of the ecology of birds, we should set clear priorities rather than compile a long "shopping list" of research projects. On the basis of the foregoing survey, I would suggest the following as priority items for further study. First, we need to know a lot more about winter distribution, not only of the marine birds, but also of inshore and coastal species. Second, we need to study in greater detail the relation between the day-to-day distribution of birds and the local patchiness of the resources on which they depend. Evidence that seabirds are able to locate and use fluctuating and shifting food sources has been given by several speakers at the conference. We need to understand how birds locate these resources and what relation this has to their survival and vulnerability to human activities. There is a special need to study the ecology of endemic species because their conservation is of special importance. We need to learn more about the relation of the birds to the commercial fisheries, both to resolve existing or alleged conflicts and to avert future problems.

However, I believe that the highest research priority should be given to obtaining basic information on reproductive success and life table data for some representative species. Clearly, we cannot study many species in detail, but in selecting key species for such studies we should pick a variety of ecological types—for example, at least one generalist species and one specialist, one sedentary species and one migrant, one species at a high trophic level and one at a low trophic level.

For the purpose for which we convened this symposium—conservation—I do not think that we need detailed knowledge of the factors which regulate populations. Such knowledge is, of course, of immense biological interest and will ultimately be needed for effective long-term management. However, it does not have immediate or even medium-term relevance to the urgent problems of conservation that we now face. What we do need to do is to set up some long-term studies of a few carefully selected species—preferably long-lived species—so that we can trace the effect of environmental fluctuations on their performance for a long period.

Vulnerability of the Resource

We already understand a number of factors that make some of these bird populations particularly vulnerable to the kind of human activities which we can envisage in the next decade or two. Most of the breeding birds concentrate on islands where they are vulnerable to predators and to human disturbance. Many of them concentrate in flocks on human fishing grounds and over other areas of the continental shelf which are likely to be the focus of human activity in the near future. In particular, some of the birds are known to concentrate in the passes through the Aleutian Islands, where they will be particularly vulnerable to future oil spills. In all these ways the birds are concentrated in areas where they are likely to receive disproportionate impacts from human activity and exploitation.

One point that has been barely mentioned in this symposium is the effect of molting on the vulnerability of some of these populations. The eiders, for example, concentrate on molting grounds in the Arctic. The exact location of these molting grounds may not be fully known, but we certainly know that the birds molt somewhere in an area where they will be vulnerable to oil spills (and also to human hunting if the people who move to the Arctic choose to hunt them). Nor are eiders the only species that are flightless when they molt. Some alcids and loons are also flightless for short periods and, hence, particularly vulnerable to oil spills during molt.

Past Damage to the Resource

In the speech opening the symposium, Assistant Secretary Reed referred to this biological resource as still relatively unspoiled. While "relatively" may be an appropriate word, we do have spectacular evidence of changes and damage to these bird populations. The use of the Aleutian Islands for fox farming seems to me a quite horrifying situation. We know also that the early whalers and sealers exploited seabird populations. Although I know of little specific information about the effects of such exploitation on birds in the northern North Pacific, D. G. Ainley in his survey of historical records from the Farallon Islands has shown very clearly the massive effects of human exploitation of birds, starting early in the 19th century. In our area of discussion alone, one species (the spectacled cormorant) is extinct and another (the short-tailed albatross) became virtually extinct and is still very rare. I believe that one or two southern hemisphere species, which must have been substantial elements in the northern summer bird population, have also been seriously depleted as a result of human activity on their breeding grounds.

Several speakers emphasized the importance of long-term fluctuations in bird populations resulting from natural causes, including some examples from the North Pacific. Other types of human activity must also have had some indirect effects on the birds. For example, whaling and sealing in the 19th century must have provided large amounts of food for scavenging birds and eliminated important competitors for the larger fish-eating birds. A similar experiment is now in progress as the predatory fish are being overfished.

Major Threats to the Bird Populations

We now know enough about the distribution and ecology of the seabirds to identify the major threats to them that are likely to be posed by the projected increase in human activity in the coming decades. The relative importance of these threats clearly varies from species to species and from area to area. However, I think that few of us would disagree that the largest single threat in the area as a whole is posed by oil, not only by the prospect of large-scale drilling for oil on the Alaskan continental shelf but also by prospective spills during transportation and deliberate dumping from ships.

My guess is that the second most important threat to the seabirds of the northern North Pacific is the presence of introduced predators, especially foxes and rats, at the breeding colonies. Much of the damage inflicted by these predators may already have been done, but I think their continuing presence is likely to have as great a negative effect on the bird populations as anything else discussed at the conference.

The relative importance of the other identifiable threats to the birds is even more conjectural. Drowning of diving birds in fishnets is obviously of great potential impact, but its importance depends greatly on the rapidly changing practices of fishermen. This problem must be kept under close surveillance, and the establishment and enforcement of international agreements will be critical.

Mineral development has not been mentioned much. It is my understanding that there are prospects for substantial onshore, and perhaps offshore, developments of heavy metal minerals. These are likely to lead to local disturbance in the coastal zone, and the tailings in particular may well pose a threat to coastal and inshore birds.

Ocean dumping has not been mentioned. I do not expect that there will be much dumping of toxic chemicals from Alaskan industries, but we must remember that this area is downstream from Japan and the Soviet Union. I do not know the current practices of these countries, but the unregulated dumping of toxic substances from some European countries apparently has led to large-scale pollution problems in the North Atlantic.

On present evidence, persistent pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB's) do not seem to pose a significant threat to north Pacific seabirds, although high levels of PCB's have been reported in shearwaters off the California coast. In my judgment, we have probably turned the corner in regulating these chemicals, at least in the northern hemisphere, and their impact will probably not be allowed to get worse.

Human disturbance is obviously going to get very much worse, both from the influx of new human populations who will be involved in more industrialized activities in Alaska and from the likely increase in tourism. A matter of particular concern is the prospective influx of natural history tours, which can have major adverse effects if not carefully regulated.

Finally, we should not forget the impact of natural phenomena, including climatic changes and vulcanism. Bearing in mind the experience of Katmai, we might expect a natural disaster to strike a major bird colony at any moment.

Practicability of Conservation

Experience from other countries, as related in various papers at this conference, has shown that conservation of seabirds is possible and practicable, even in remote and inaccessible areas. We have heard today particularly about conservation programs and achievements in Europe and New Zealand. W. H. Drury spoke briefly about experience in eastern North America and F. Salomonsen told us how the bird populations of the Faeroes Islands have been managed for sustained yield.

At least in the North Atlantic, where the history of the bird populations is much better known, the conservation situation has been, and probably still is, very much worse than that now prevailing in the North Pacific. Looking back on 200 years in the North Atlantic, we find that two major marine species have been extinguished, at least one and probably two or three others became endangered, and almost all the seabirds were drastically reduced in numbers (at least in temperate latitudes). Starting in the late 19th century when many species first received effective protection, most showed impressive recoveries, but some have declined again in the last 30 years.

We can learn several lessons from that experience. One is that we can do great damage to seabird populations in a very short time if we do things that cause substantial adult mortality. A second is that seabird populations can recover well with protection and modest management—although most of them, being slow breeders, recover slowly. A third lesson is that in the last 30 years we have caused substantial damage through oil spills, human disturbance at the breeding colonies, chemical pollution, and indirectly by promoting the spread of gulls. Much has been said at the conference about these present-day human impacts. However, with the sole exception of the oil spills which have affected alcids and sea ducks in parts of northwest Europe, it seems to me that the damage caused by human activity in the past 30 years is considerably less than that in the last 30 years of the 19th century.

Another lesson we can learn from the recent experience in other areas is that it is possible to ameliorate some of these adverse human impacts with local, small-scale, and even rather amateurish management activities—for example, protecting seabird colonies from gulls, regulating human visits, and controlling the use of the most toxic chemicals. Our most conspicuous failure is in controlling oil pollution. Although safety precautions imposed on offshore drilling rigs and at shipping terminals have proved reasonably effective in averting major damage to seabirds, attempts to control oil pollution during transportation have been essentially fruitless. Tanker accidents and deliberate discharges from vessels remain the major threat to seabird populations.

Another lesson from other areas is that public education has been very effective in putting pressure behind conservation measures, and is doing so increasingly. At the same time, however, it is resulting in an increase of the disturbances that the birds suffer at their breeding grounds from casual visitors, photographers, and sometimes, well-meaning naturalists.

Finally, in very recent years, there have been encouraging developments in rehabilitating oiled birds, captive breeding, and reintroduction into areas from which they have been depleted. Restoration of seabird populations no longer seems an impossible goal.

Conservation Needs for North Pacific Seabirds

We now know enough about the seabirds of the northern North Pacific to specify in principle what should be done immediately to conserve them. I will not address the institutional arrangements needed for conservation; R. E. LeResche's paper presented a very clear picture of the institutional problems involved in protecting and managing seabirds on an interregional and international basis. I will simply endorse his principal recommendation: that we should try to bring the various responsible agencies together to formulate comprehensive management plans.

On the level at which we as individuals and as a group of biologists can work, we can already make some positive recommendations. The most important is that since prevention of damage is a lot better than cure, measures to avert damage should have the highest priority. We have heard a great deal from the oil industry about the "inevitability" of accidents. One speaker mentioned the "inherent fallibility of man." Well, we are all fallible, but the experience of the last 50 years is that some people are more fallible than others. No oil company has a perfect record, but some have 10 times as many accidents as the best, and some, I believe, have considerably more than 10 times as many. This means, very simply, that it is possible to eliminate most—not all, but most—of the major threats to the seabirds, merely by upgrading the safety performance of the entire industry to that already achieved by its best segments. I suggest that our major challenge in the coming years is to work for effective regulation of the industry: to achieve regulations which will decisively penalize bad performance and as decisively reward care.

Perhaps the second priority in conservation is to protect and manage the existing breeding colonies. In most cases protection is legally feasible if we have the will. Most of the major colonies are in remote areas or in public ownership where development and disturbance can be controlled. Management of the breeding populations is less straightforward, however, because we do not know enough about the functioning of this complex biological resource. Seabird populations fluctuate and they have a very long response time, the environment is not constant, we do not understand the dynamics of multispecies communities, and we do not know how they respond either to external changes or to our attempts to manage them. Management will have to be improvisatory for a very long time. We must recognize that effective conservation of a bird population with a 20-year generation time will take at least 20 years to show results.

Another priority task is to control predators. I have been impressed by the evidence we have for major effects of predators on the seabird populations here. I would regard control of predators and management of habitats on some of the major seabird islands as an extremely urgent task.

A longer-term but no less important program is public education. This program has several important aspects: one is to increase public support for political actions and effective regulations to protect seabirds; another is to educate the public about the vulnerability of seabirds and to prevent disturbance or deliberate human destruction.

Another aspect of public education is to develop public interest by making some of the birds more visible. The great problem with this biological resource we have been talking about is that no one knows it is there. Probably half of us did not know how substantial and important a resource it is even 5 years ago. In setting up a large-scale conservation program, we should not make the mistake of basing it only on the most remote and inaccessible colonies, even if these are the most important numerically. Many of the smaller colonies are locally very important, both biologically and for human interest and education. One example given at this conference was the State of Washington's program for conserving what are, by northern Pacific standards, quite small colonies. This program is important and impressive because it is conserving bird populations near people who want to see the birds. We have the same sort of situation in Massachusetts and Maine, where effective protection programs have been established for extremely small seabird colonies. We have learned from these programs that a few hundred birds, or even a few dozen if properly managed, can be of immense educational importance. If human access is carefully managed so that people can see the birds without disturbing them, these programs can generate support for conservation of larger bird populations that may be thousands of miles away where people may never see them.

A Rationale for Conservation

As I have tried to show, we know something about the importance of this biological resource, and we know in outline what we should do to conserve it. But why should we? Almost no one knows the birds are there. We ourselves do not know whether there are 50 million or 250 million birds in the north Pacific Ocean. Who cares if 10 million disappear? If we cannot give a good answer to this question, we might as well go home and study chickadees instead.

To justify spending money on conserving marine birds—or any other natural resources—we must establish their value. Some of the arguments made in this conference for assigning economic values to seabirds have been dangerously weak. The annual value of "muttonbirds" (Puffinus tenuirostris) in the New Zealand markets is about $70,000. Some speakers have tried to argue that seabirds might play some subtle role that we do not yet understand in regulating marine communities—perhaps they weed out the sick fish. The direct economic values that we have specified for seabirds are really not very impressive, even in terms of the costs involved in conserving and studying them. The biggest number we have heard for the value of these seabirds is the amount of money we are spending on surveys.

However, this is not the real issue. In judging the costs and benefits of a conservation program, we should not look just at the value of the birds as meat, or oil, or indicators of pollution. The real issue here, as in all economic problems, is the rational allocation of resources. H. Boyd posed the rhetorical question: "Why should we waste public money on conserving birds when there are so many other things to spend it on?" The question is more properly posed in reverse: "Why should the government waste so much public money on unproductive projects when only a small amount of money can achieve conservation of these birds which some people think are important?"

The fact is that we already know why we should allocate resources to conservation. I believe that we have just been evading the answer. We ought to conserve these birds because many people want them to be conserved.

This is not, as one speaker said, an elite interest. The public, as we well know, is already willing to spend money to conserve natural resources and is increasingly demonstrating that willingness. The public, in fact, is ahead of the administrators and bureaucrats. To appreciate this, we need only look at some of the laws already on the books. The Congress of the United States, in the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, declared that it was the national policy to "create and maintain conditions under which man and nature can exist in productive harmony, and fulfill the social, economic, and other requirements of present and future generations of Americans." The Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 found that "marine mammals have proven themselves to be resources of great international significance, esthetic and recreational as well as economic, and it is the sense of Congress that they should be protected and encouraged to the greatest extent feasible commensurate with sound policies of resource management and that the primary object of their management should be to maintain the health and stability of the marine ecosystem." As these laws have been enacted, their language has become progressively stronger. The Endangered Species Act of 1973 declares as the policy of Congress "that all federal departments and agencies shall seek to conserve endangered species and threatened species and shall use their authorities in furtherance of the purposes of this Act" (P.L. 93-205). It further directs all Federal departments and agencies to carry out conservation programs for the conservation of endangered or threatened species and to insure that their actions do not jeopardize the continued existence of these species or destroy or modify critical habitat.

These references are not only to Federal laws passed by remote politicians who can vote with only a modest responsibility to their constituents. As we have heard, there are many State laws and local ordinances which specify the same kind of thing. All these laws are on the books for a powerful reason: public opinion was behind them. The fact that they have not been enforced and implemented fully means that we have not been doing our job.

In fact, there is no philosophical problem in justifying conservation. What we face is an institutional problem. There is both a public determination that natural resources should be conserved and a public apathy and bureaucratic resistance toward doing it. As concerned biologists, we should be combating this apathy by pointing out that conservation represents a rational allocation of public resources.

Those who do not learn the lessons of history are destined to repeat it. If we study the history of conservation, we find that it developed most rapidly in those countries which mismanaged their natural resources earliest. Within the developed countries there has been a progressive historical trend toward rational use and conservation of natural resources. Conservation of natural resources, in fact, represents the future and, as biologists, it is our duty to promote it.

Economic Feasibility of Conservation

Conservation is cheap. Most of us are accustomed to working on what are essentially shoestring budgets—on the order of $100,000, $10,000, or even $1,000 per year. When we hear of a million dollars as the cost of doing something, we tend to think of it as a lot of money. H. Boyd mentioned a situation on Baffin Island, where it would cost about a million dollars to dispose of mine tailings on shore instead of dumping them into the ocean under a fulmar colony. I do not think a million dollars is very much—certainly not in comparison with the cost of restoring a colony of half a million fulmars.

We heard this morning about the acquisition of Protection Island at a cost of several hundred thousand dollars. It was pointed out that it could have been acquired much more cheaply only a few years ago. Acquisition of habitat is cheap if we do it now compared with what it will cost in a few years or a few decades. Management is cheap. None of us gets paid very much, but each of us could manage several colonies with a couple of students to help us. Wardens are cheap. Surveys are cheap. The cost of conserving seabirds is minuscule in comparison with the amount spent on the exploitation of resources that threatens them, and it is minuscule in relation to the cost of restoring a seabird population after it has been depleted.

It is far cheaper to avoid oiling birds than it is to rehabilitate them and to reestablish them in breeding colonies in the wild. It costs nothing at all to award leases to companies that have a good safety record and to refuse leases to companies with bad records. It costs a little more to maintain good safety practices in drilling and transportation. It does cost more to transport oil in small, double-bottomed tankers with well-trained crews than to transport it in big ships flying flags of convenience, but the cost differential is very small compared to the value of the shipment.

In considering the economics of conservation, we have to weigh the costs of conservation against the value of the resource being exploited. Full-scale development of oil reserves on the Alaskan continental shelf would generate economic values on the order of ten billion dollars per year. Of this total, 0.1% would support a reasonably sized management program for the threatened resources. About 1% of the total, or 12¢ per barrel of oil, would not only support an ample management program but also permit management of many other coastal zone resources. Yet the experience of the last few years has shown that an increase in oil prices of 1% is barely noticed by consumers.

The point I am trying to make is that extracting oil carefully does not cost significantly more than extracting it carelessly. If we can solve the institutional problems—and I do not underestimate the difficulty of doing so—we are not talking about an irrational use of resources. Conservation is feasible; it is worthwhile; it is not expensive; and there is a public demand for it.

Conclusions

Practical conservation is an adaptive process. It is not at present a process that is firmly based in ecological theory. It is one in which we have to start by doing something, see whether it works, and then change our program in accordance with our early experience. I do not believe that we can wait for detailed knowledge of population sizes, or ecology, or demography, or trophic importance, or any other biological attribute of these birds before we start conservation and management. As scientists we do, of course, find it interesting and important to study these things. We should do so; we need to do so; but we should not use our ignorance of detail as an excuse for delaying action. If this seabird resource is worth conserving, we should start now.

Summary

The marine birds of the northern North Pacific Ocean, Bering Sea, and adjacent seas constitute one of the great neglected biological resources of the world.

This resource is impressive in terms of both total numbers (probably of the order of 100 million birds) and species diversity. A number of species are endemic to the area and hence of special interest.

The resource is international in that it includes major populations of migrants from Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, the Soviet Union, and other countries. Several migrant species appear to use this area exclusively in their nonbreeding season and should be included in the list of endemics.

The general relation between the distribution and abundance of seabirds and other marine resources is beginning to be understood. However, comparatively little is known about the distribution of seabirds in winter, and there is a serious dearth of information about breeding success, survival, and demography.

Seabirds in the north Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas are concentrated over the continental shelf and in areas of high biological productivity. Hence they are especially vulnerable to human exploitation.

Seabirds of the northern Pacific Ocean have already been damaged by human activities in the past and present. Experience in other areas shows that seabirds are extremely vulnerable to human activities and their populations are often very slow to recover.

The most important threats to the seabird resource are oil drilling and transportation and introduced predators, especially foxes. Other identifiable threats include mineral exploitation, fishing, ocean dumping of toxic chemicals, and human disturbance, including both hunting and tourism.

Experience in other parts of the world, especially in the North Atlantic, has shown that seabird populations can be protected and restored through modest programs of management and public education. The principal exception has been the failure to regulate discharges of oil at sea, which continue to cause major damage to seabird populations in many areas.

In the North Pacific and Bering Sea areas, the most urgent conservation needs are effective regulation of prospective oil exploitation, control of introduced predators, and public education. Regional management plans should be developed. Public access to bird colonies should be managed carefully to combine protection with public education.

Conservation programs for seabirds can be justified as a response to increasing public demand for rational management of natural resources. Conservation programs are inexpensive in relation to the economic values generated by oil and mineral development. They represent a rational allocation of economic resources.

The following priorities for further study are suggested:

• Study of productivity and demography in a few carefully selected species to provide basic life table data that will permit rapid identification of future changes.

• A base-line census of some carefully selected breeding colonies, including precise photographic surveys that can be used to measure future population changes.

• Surveys of the distribution of seabirds of the North Pacific and Bering Sea in winter, with special emphasis on areas close to shore where birds may be vulnerable to oil pollution.

• Special studies of endemic species.

• Studies of the way in which seabirds locate and use patchily distributed food resources.

The following conservation measures are suggested:

• Adoption of regulations governing exploitation and transportation of oil which would provide strong incentives for safe performance and severe penalties for safety violations.

• A conservation tax of a few cents per barrel of oil to cover the costs of managing the major seabird colonies and to establish a trust fund for restoring depleted populations.

• Equivalent measures for mining and other exploitative industries in the coastal zone with a prospective impact on marine resources.

• Prohibition of dumping of toxic chemicals in biologically productive waters.

• A program to eliminate introduced predators from the Aleutian Islands and from important bird colonies elsewhere.

• Promulgation of effective regulations to protect birds under the Migratory Bird Treaty with Japan.

• Negotiation of migratory bird treaties with other affected countries, including the Soviet Union, Australia, New Zealand, and Chile.

• Acquisition of major unprotected seabird colonies into the national wildlife refuge or other federal landholding systems.

• Formulation of regional and international management plans for localized species, especially endemic species of the Bering Sea.

• Regulation of public access to major seabird colonies.

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