The political situation in Turkey can well be summed up as “A fifteenth century Oriental government in conflict with modern civilization.” This condition is aggravated by the existence of European rivalries and jealousies and Mohammedan fanaticism. The combination of these forces is hard to analyze and its results even more difficult to forecast.

The first, and in some respects the most evident, difficulty especially manifest to those who reside in the empire, is the intellectual, social, and moral upheaval caused by the influence of Christian civilization upon the people as a whole. New and, to that country, startling ideas of religious freedom, human rights, and the true functions of a government, have taken hold upon large numbers out of every nationality and religion. So long as the government of Turkey is conducted according to Oriental fifteenth century ideals, it is inevitable that there must be a conflict, trying both to the government and to the governed. So long as the people were densely ignorant, knowing little of the world outside and far less of the principle that governs civilized people, they made little complaint. As enlightenment came to them from various sources, it was inevitable that unrest should also come. Had Turkey been able to adjust herself to the new situation and move forward in her administrative methods, keeping pace with the growing intelligence of her subjects, she might have become one of the strong, compact, and thrifty nations of the East.

She chose otherwise and began early to devise and put into execution plans for the suppression of general education. At the same time, the press was throttled by a severe censorship and all who were suspected of thinking for themselves came under a ban. Turkey, in her feeble way, attempted to follow the lead of Russia in this respect, and did so undoubtedly under Russian advice. The failure to protect property has discouraged the investment of capital. Industries languished and have almost died out. Inevitably enterprising men would seek to emigrate. When once outside the country few incline to return so long as present conditions continue. In fact, the government discourages the return of any who have been abroad, fearing the new ideas they acquired in Europe and the United States. At the present time the government practically forbids the return to Turkey of all who have been in civilized countries, endeavoring to maintain a wall of seclusion against all ideas of modern civilization. Turkey calls such people dangerous characters and throws them into prison as revolutionists.

This dangerous class includes Albanians, Turks, Greeks, Syrians, and Armenians. In most respects among these are found the most enlightened people of the country. Some of the educated Turks have obtained their new ideas from sources within the country, while others have studied in Europe. Many of them have come into more modern ideas of a government and its functions, and would gladly see changes made which would bring Turkey into harmony with Europe. These are called the new Turks, and are classified roughly together as the “New Turk party.” They are not revolutionists in the ordinary sense of that word. They find no favor with the reigning sultan, and are exiled and even executed without trial. The party, although apparently not organized, is a fact, and the spirit of reform is spreading among the Turks. Measures to suppress this movement are generally secret and are seldom reported abroad. A Turk once told the writer that “when outrages are perpetrated against the Christians, the whole world lifts up its hands in horror and the sultan is ordered to cease; but when the poor Turks are the victims, where is there a voice raised in their defense?”

Naturally the Turkish government fears the Armenians since they have made such rapid progress in education during the last eighty years. Since Bulgaria became practically an independent state, Turkey has tightened its hold upon Armenia. At the same time, the Armenians, seeing the great freedom and prosperity enjoyed by the Bulgarians, have cherished dreams of the time when they too might be free. While all Armenians have at times indulged in such visions, but few have ever seriously considered the proposition a practicable one. Only the most rattle-headed of them declare such a plan possible and only such are advocating revolutionary measures to that end. Armenia (a name not permitted in Turkey) can hardly be erected into an independent nation, although it would be impossible to convince Sultan Hamid II of that fact. He governs as if he expected hourly that Armenia may rise and demand its freedom, although the Mohammedans are everywhere greatly in the majority.

There are, however, a considerable number of Armenians who have been driven to desperation by the injustice and cruelty of the government. Aware that they are powerless to reform Turkey, they declare their inability longer to endure. These resort to acts of desperation with the hope that Europe will become aroused, as it did in the case of Bulgaria, and interfere in the interests of the oppressed. Small revolutionary parties called by various names have been organized in Macedonia, in Armenia, and especially in border countries like Bulgaria, Russia, and Persia, for the secretly avowed purpose of compelling the attention and interference of Europe. They have stirred the Turks to acts of extreme cruelty, but have egregiously failed to accomplish their purpose.

These internal affairs which disturb and vex the people almost beyond endurance are allowed to continue, unchecked by European interference, because the nations of Europe cannot agree to act together, nor can they trust any one to act for the rest. England’s influence, which was supreme when the Treaty of Berlin was signed, has been superseded by Russia, and she in turn has taken, more recently, second place to Germany. The sultan, most astute of all, is able to set rivalry, jealousy, and suspicion against suspicion, jealousy and rivalry, and while they quarrel over methods and precedents, he works his will. No diplomat is able to cope with the sultan of Turkey, because his statements cannot be relied upon, while his promises are meaningless. Every ambassador and minister learns this to his sorrow, but is powerless to meet the conditions created by it. To call the sovereign of a state to which he is accredited “a falsifier” would not be diplomatic, and might strain existing relations, and to meet falsehood with falsehood is against the principles of representatives of the Christian nations. While the foreign legations are considering these problems the sultan continues his own way.

The present unsettled condition in Russia and the defeat of that country by the Japanese will undoubtedly weaken her influence over the sultan. The emperor of Germany, while maintaining friendly relations with Hamid II, does not seem to attempt to restrain him in his acts of violence against his own subjects. If he would, it is believed by many that Emperor William might accomplish much in bringing about reform measures in Turkey, if the other Powers of Europe would permit him to do so.

Financially Turkey seems to be upon the verge of bankruptcy. Her system of assessing taxes, paralyzing industry, and her method of often collecting from the poor taxpayer many times the amount due, have impoverished the country. The occasional general massacres in different sections have been terribly destructive to national wealth, striking directly at its sources. The strained political situation is due in no small measure to the economic conditions of that country, accompanied by the unjust administration of the government. If Turkey could afford her subjects of all classes a safe and just government, it might soon be one of the most prosperous and thrifty countries in Asia, comparing favorably with the governments of Europe.

What the future will bring forth for Turkey no one can predict. Some twelve years ago the writer asked an old and experienced diplomat at Constantinople what was to be the outcome of the then threatening conditions in the country. His reply was, “I have studied Turkey from within and without for thirty years, and have carefully weighed the diverse forces that are operating in the empire. I have come to one clear and final conclusion which I am certain will stand the test of time, and that is that I do not know anything about what the future will produce here.”

One thing is sure, the methods of government which were successful there six centuries ago cannot be continued indefinitely. Modern thought and ideas will not submit in patience and quietness forever to the oppressive measures of the middle ages. Dawn is breaking and it is useless for the night to rail at its coming. Intelligent belief will win in the end, and justice and righteousness must triumph. This may cost the shedding of blood, but indications do not point that way. A mighty revolution is already in progress which will accomplish its purpose, in time, by the simple laws of God wrought out by the lives and acts of intelligent and righteous men. The forces of reform are in operation, not only in institutions, but in the hearts and in the longings, and in the purposes, of men of all classes and races. It propagates itself as it moves from coast to coast, and from plain to mountain fastness, gaining in force and depth and breadth with every decade. Present conditions cannot indefinitely continue. Times may be worse before they are better, but even greater changes are inevitable and at no remotely distant day. God is in his heavens and he is guiding the affairs of the Turkish empire.